fartius maximus 🛡️

Imagine thinking bitcoin 2.0 will be less valuable than bitcoin 1.0. Imagine thinking v2 of anything that is implemented better and more technologically sound than v1 of the same will be less useful or less valuable than v1

@Jason I'm in

We started an AI founder twitter group... reply with "I'm in" if you're a founder and want to be added

@hamptonism @traderwhale69 Just for the purposes of solving the problem without bringing ethics etc into debate..you would kill someone and tell the crowd that the dead person was shot because they were trying to escape and the same would happen to anyone else who tried the same

@traderwhale69 No, please read it again.

Blackrock Quantitative Interview Question:

Prediction markets are the slow death knell for today’s TAs

It is the age of longevity. It is the age of real science. It is the age of abundance. It is the age of extremes. Escape.

@justindross @roelofbotha @rabois playbook

@_common_W_ @grok @grok remove whoever is not the GOAT

Hey @grok, remove the player that doesn't show up in big matches

Obviously in addition to low-latency inference

Groq

Bull trap 60k incoming

Currently there is a 22:1 payout and almost 10:1 payout on bets of bitcoin closing the year above 100k and closing the year green or positive respectively. Interesting. Seeing 93-94k soon..

Prediction markets (PMs) will cannibalize other asset speculation if they don’t integrate PMs into it. SOL is at least integrating it daily

Well optics too now

Look into DRAMs

Is memory gonna break the AI trade?

Privacy predictions perps

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.

@michelleefang Building 🫡

if you're vibe coding or building over the holidays, i want to gift one of you a 6 month subscription of claude pro to support <3 just drop a comment below. merry christmas!

@benln Add Me 👋

Who's building over the holidays? Will add you to a group chat I started on X.

@chamath @thogge @JeffiniteVC Hey Chamath, just wanted to say Congrats on winning. Keep winning!

@thogge @JeffiniteVC You are right

It appears groq will return over $4b to social capital and @chamath I don’t know how big the fund was, but it’s safe to say this is one of the best venture outcomes of all time. Unbelievable. Power laws rule everything around me.

Zec

What we have achieved as the human race is so huge - no single human can do all that. And then people ask you to be realistic. No. Be an optimist. Create things. Not for yourself, but for humanity. The pursuit of it is a reward in itself. Anything extra is icing on the cake.

Be a purist