MandDoS

Time to silence the ₿ears. $BTC

They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed. But Indonesia is a different story entirely. Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure. What makes Indonesia different is this. Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable. The bull case is what nobody is talking about. Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore. Then there's coal. When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up. Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up. Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply. You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives. But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it. The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it. Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.

عاجل وهام 🇰🇷🇰🇵 المصافحة التي ارعبت ترامب والغرب لاول مرة في التاريخ، كوريا الجنوبية تصافح زعيم كوريا الشمالية المصافحة التاريخية بين الكوريتين _خالف كيم جونغ أون البروتوكول، ودعا الرئيس الكوري الجنوبي لعبور خط الحدود. وبعد تردد وجيز، صافح الزعيم الكوري الشمالي كيم جونغ أون، وعبر الاثنان معًا إلى الجانب الآخر.

BREAKING: Iran has accepted the 2-week ceasefire proposal and it has been approved by the country's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, per NYT.

Israel has agreed to the ceasefire and will also suspend its strikes, a White House official told Axios.

BREAKING: Iran has accepted the 2-week ceasefire proposal and it has been approved by the country's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, per NYT.

🚨 US PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” – a “double sided CEASEFIRE.” 🔸Trump says he will pause planned strikes on Iran for two weeks after talks with Pakistan’s leadership, conditioning the move on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. ▫️The pause is contingent on the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” 🔸Trump claims the U.S. has “met and exceeded all Military objectives.” 🔸Says a “10 point proposal from Iran” is now a “workable basis” for a broader deal. 🔸Adds the sides are “very far along with a definitive Agreement” on long-term peace. 🔸He described the two-week window as time to “finalize and consummate” a wider agreement to end the war. Full post: ⬇️

first inland operation to set up temporary base at abandoned airfield in Iran fails completely. • 1× F-15E destroyed • 2× HH-60 helicopters damaged • 1× A-10 destroyed • 2× C-130 destroyed • 1–2× MQ-9s destroyed

95% trader gagal, hanya 5% yang berhasil Angkanya mungkin kurang bener, tapi faktanya memang hanya sebagian kecil trader yang berhasil Pertanyaannya, jika melihat fakta tersebut, mengapa kamu masih memilih menjadi trader?

Goldman on oil.