Dan

I've made 300+ pre-seed investments. Zero companies died from telling investors bad news early. Dozens died hiding it until the money ran out. Marcus Aurelius: do nothing "that needs to be concealed." Your investors are on the bus, on your side. Monthly updates are your path to leverage them.

@zanemountcastle Who is sleeping?

the equivalent of YC's first batch photo for hard tech

@benmezrich When is the movie ?

As some of you know, I’ve spent a lot of time with Russian oligarchs; especially while writing my book Once Upon A Time In Russia, which many of you have read. So I figure it’s time for the crazy fucking Russian oligarch thread… 1)

@jwegener @karine_hsu It’s not open yet but get ready it’s gonna be HUGE

@djdan85 @karine_hsu Yes but address? Not coming up on Google Maps.

Maggie's Refuel, a new high-end gas station brand just opened in LA ~ "Maggie’s Refuel is a high-end convenience store brand planning to modernize and innovate the current gas station experience. Think Autogrill meets 7-Eleven Japan: matcha, local croissants, premium CPG, and yes, a soft-serve cone - all alongside a gas (or EV) fill-up."

@jwegener @karine_hsu LA baby!

@karine_hsu Where?

@loobah_l @luke_metro It’s going to be great

@luke_metro Honestly I would go to a high end gas station

we got Woke Buccee's before GTA 6

Is is gonna be hugeee

@typesfast @CGarrett_15 Don’t tell anyone

Wow JSX just added Santa Monica to Oakland service

🚀

🙌🙌🙌

@elonmusk How much would it cost to build a tunnel between LA and SF?

Boring Company’s goal is to solve traffic in cities and one day build Hyperloop high-speed transit between city centers

Maybe the best political ad of the year.

@BillAckman @IsaacHealth 👀

Worth a read on Alzheimer’s. I welcome expert opinion on Mark’s observations. Do you agree or disagree?

We're live on product hunt today!

@jakobdiepen this is one of the highest quality groups of startups I’ve ever seen. You’ve done an incredible job building and supporting the movement.

@stopachka I remember that. And the rooftop view!

@djdan85 Thank you Dan! Can't believe it's been 4 years -- you met us even before Instant, when we were thinking about fitness apps!

After 4 years, we’re announcing Instant 1.0. Instant is the best backend for AI-coded apps. Let us tell you why.

So excited for them to launch finally!!

Incredible team changing the insurance game. 🚀

@Keith_Wasserman Why not wait longer until there is some actual pain/distress?

Everyone is waiting for a “2009 moment” in multifamily. That’s exactly why this is the opportunity. We’ve already had a crash—just without the headlines. • Multifamily values: down ~15–30%+ from peak • Cap rates: up ~150–300 bps • Transactions: still ~60–70% below 2021 levels But here’s the part most people are missing: This cycle isn’t going to look like 2009. There won’t be a single moment where everything is “on sale.” Instead, it’s happening slowly… and selectively… right now. ⸻ The real driver isn’t pricing. It’s the debt. • ~$1–1.5 trillion of CRE loans maturing between 2025–2027 • Huge share = floating rate bridge debt • Deals underwritten at 3–4% now facing 6.5–8%+ debt costs A lot of these assets: •Don’t refinance •Don’t cash flow •Don’t have fresh equity That leads to one outcome: forced decisions. Not panic selling— …but recapitalizations, note sales, and quiet discounts. ⸻ At the exact same time, supply is about to disappear. • Multifamily starts are down ~40–60% from peak • Construction financing is extremely constrained • New deliveries peak in 2024–2025… then fall sharply This is the setup most people miss: You buy when supply is peaking… → You own when supply collapses. That’s when rent growth comes back. ⸻ And replacement cost is completely disconnected from reality. • Construction costs still ~30–50% above 2020 levels • Many deals today trade below replacement cost Meaning: You’re buying assets cheaper than it would cost to build them— in a market where almost no one can build new supply. ⸻ Meanwhile… capital is frozen. Large institutions: •Dealing with redemptions •Overallocated to real estate •Waiting for “clarity” Which means: Less competition. More structure. Better entry points. But that window doesn’t stay open. When capital comes back—it comes back all at once. ⸻ So what actually works in this market? Not chasing broken real estate. The real trade is: → Buy good assets with broken capital stacks → Provide solutions (equity, preferred equity, or structured liquidity) → Lock in low basis → Ride NOI growth + cap rate compression You don’t need heroics from here to generate strong returns. You need: •Discipline •Structure •And the willingness to move before it feels obvious ⸻ We’re actively looking for: •Multifamily deals with refinancing pressure or GP/LP fatigue •Situations where capital—not real estate—is the problem •JV equity and family office partners who want to lean in during this window If you’re thinking about deploying capital into this cycle, this is one of the few moments where timing + structure can do most of the work. It won’t feel like 2009. That’s exactly why it’s interesting.