Devin Hamilton

For sure. I'm hoping to follow the plan I mentioned earlier: I have young kids right now so just keeping my safe w2 doctor job (work 3 long days per week and spend the rest of my days fully engaged with them). When they're grown/set, I seriously have no more excuses to not pursue entrepreneurial endeavors. But maybe if I wait that long, NGMI 🤷‍♂️

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

u/marktrain1234 went crazy on Reddit analyzing $GRPN ‘s short interest. Note: this started off as a trade for me. I’m in it for the fundamentals now. I did a lot of work and found more and more to like about the actual business and what it could be. Nevertheless, read this weaponized autism: GRPN: 45% locked, 65% short of float, 156% borrow utilization. Float is broken. Continental General filed a 13G/A showing 3,620,590 shares, or 9.24%, up from 2,929,832 prior. Another ~691K shares just moved into long-term hands. Ortex live shows shorts added 631K shares today: 727K borrowed, only 96K returned. Net new shorting. No covering. Live SI is now 13.87M shares per Ortex, or 57.25% of free float. I rebuilt the ownership stack from Ortex’s holder list and cross-checked it against 13D, 13G, 13F, and Form 4 filings. Shares outstanding: 39.19M Treasury: 12.24M separate, not in S/O Ownership stack: Locked holders: 17.72M, 45.2% Linmar, likely locked/concentrated: 1.65M, 4.2% Index/ETF: 7.82M, ~5.6M loanable Prime broker custody: 4.31M, ~1.1M adjusted loanable Market makers: 435K, ~304K loanable Pod-shop HFs: 4.81M, ~572K loanable Concentrated long HFs: 3.06M, ~269K loanable Mutual funds: 834K, ~542K loanable Asset managers: 1.52M, ~672K loanable Pensions: 208K, ~134K loanable Central bank: 52K, 0 loanable Total identified: 42.41M shares Prime broker double-count adjustment: -2.58M Adjusted identified: 39.82M Shares outstanding: 39.19M Implied retail: basically zero. The locked column is the key: Pale Fire: 10.18M Continental / Gorzynski: 3.62M Windward: 1.94M CEO direct: 1.14M Insiders/officers/directors: ~840K Locked total: 17.72M shares, or 45.2% of S/O. Add Linmar and locked/concentrated ownership may be closer to 49.4%. The pod shops hold another ~4.81M shares: Millennium, D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Two Sigma, Squarepoint, ExodusPoint, Point72, Verition, Balyasny, Renaissance, Schonfeld, Brevan Howard, Walleye, AQR, Centiva, etc. These are not clean passive lenders. These are market-neutral platforms. If they own GRPN, it may be paired against shorts or embedded in books where lending the long defeats the trade structure. Concentrated long HFs hold another ~3.06M shares. Again, not clean passive lend. The real lenders are index/ETF holders: BlackRock: 2.94M Vanguard: 2.10M State Street: 881K Geode: 654K Dimensional: 453K Schwab: 230K Northern Trust: 213K Pacer: 203K First Trust: 110K Rhumbline: 31K Index subtotal: 7.82M shares Estimated loanable: ~5.6M Total estimated loanable supply: Index/ETF: 5.6M Prime broker adjusted: 1.1M Hedge funds: 0.8M Mutual funds: 0.5M Asset managers: 0.7M Pensions: 0.1M Market makers: 0.3M Retail residual: ~0 Total: ~8.9M shares. Ortex live SI: 13.87M Estimated loanable: ~8.9M Excess over loanable: ~5.0M Utilization: 156% The math does not work. Either real SI is lower than Ortex shows, which today’s +631K borrowed argues against; real SI is higher and hidden in swaps/TRS/ETF baskets; or my loanable estimate is too conservative. My best guess: real economic short exposure is 14M–19M shares including synthetic/swap exposure. Against a true tradeable float of roughly 19.8M shares, that is 70–95% short of true float. TLDR: GRPN’s tradeable float is a lie. 45% is straight locked. Add Linmar and it may be closer to 50%. Pod shops hold another multi-million-share block that likely is not clean borrow. Index funds and pensions are the only real lenders, and they max out around 9M shares of capacity by my math. Short interest is 13.87M per Ortex. Short interest exceeds estimated lendable supply by ~5M shares. Continental locked up another 691K shares and shorts added 631K on the same day. Both sides are pressing. I think this is one of the tightest setups since pre-squeeze CAR. But I am one guy with a spreadsheet and Ortex screenshots, so tell me what I’m missing. Not advice. Long Groupon. Game on.

The largest integrated producer of fertilizer in North America $MOS is only worth $7 bil with the worst fertilizer supply shock ever. People are about to learn that you can’t eat Nvidia chips

Yesterday almost 50 major US stocks hit fresh 52-week lows. These are not small caps. These are S&P 500 names that millions of retail investors own through their index funds. Here is the full list, sector by sector: