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COBBER
648 posts

COBBER
@cobber_32
investing and learning everyday. AI, Space, Materials, and 2nd order investing
Katılım Şubat 2024
344 Takip Edilen221 Takipçiler

@cobber_32 Might be the most undervalued. Made in America,business related to 5G/6G, space communication, quantum, chips. Expected to pass the break even point this year and Rerating could come soon. Can we see 20 end of this year?
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@cobber_32 When, not if amigo. She will go. Structurally she’s tee’s up and unlike other runners the fundamentals are there - positive FCF, high gross margins, share buybacks by management, small float. We ride. $GRPN
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$GRPN squeeze article is out.
Shoutout @NickNemo17 for pointing this one out.
COBBER@cobber_32
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@TheAnonymousRee NASDAQ releases updated short interest the 15th and 1st of the month. Today we will know more on short interest change in GRPN so was planning to update it after the bell
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OPEN MESSAGE TO GROUPON MGMT:
@dusenn @josefburyan @Groupon
The feedback I keep hearing on $GRPN is that management is wary of doing a true platform facelift because past changes created friction with loyal users.
I get it. You’ve had a bunch of hiccups including log-out of un-tech-savvy users.
But I’d argue the tradeoff is optimizing around the customers you already have while leaving a much larger customer base on the table.
Loyal customers are wonderful and they deserve respect. We are not abandoning them. We are going to figure out how to make their experience better and transition smooth.
I think we can minimize short-term friction while maximizing long-term value.
2.3x retention is not evidence that the experience is optimized today. That should be 4.3 like peers. @ranakash I know you know what this would do. Setting that as the goal and user growth as a bonus, let’s discuss how to achieve it.
The current paid marketing/conversion metrics may look good not because the UX is optimal, but because Groupon is sitting on a gold mine. The same gold mine Pale Fire saw early.
Most Groupons are bought by a highly loyal repeat base. Maybe even more concentrated than the 80/20 rule. That is strength, but it can also hide the size of the missed opportunity. The platform saves people money. There should be a larger population of loyal/religious users.
A modernized app + cleaner checkout + less login/payment friction + refreshed discovery could unlock a totally new cohort of customers. 2/3rds of that can be improved with zero threat to existing loyal users as the concern is friction to begin with.
And the marketing angle writes itself:
Groupon is revamped and the deals are better than ever.
Not just “Mother’s Day deals.”
Not just another promo code.
The marketing strategy today is built for one-offs. @ryancohen ‘s view on marketing for Ebay is directionally right albeit extreme for Groupon.
What people need to know is Groupon is back. Not that Mother’s Day is here.
This does not need to be reckless. Launch a new look in beta. Let users opt into the new experience. Let legacy users use legacy mode. Test conversion, retention, AOV, repeat purchase, checkout completion, and paid-channel ROI side by side.
I think long-term $GRPN investors would back bold, startup-like steps here. The quarter-to-quarter crowd may not — and god bless. They are not a shareholder base worth pandering to. I know the team agrees.
The real opportunity set is extremely under-appreciated. Consumers need deals. 90% of America and Europe is struggling.
I am asking you to consider why college students love thrifting and are not loyal Groupon customers right now.
That can change with a new look and UGC/influencer marketing. I’m big and well connected on TikTok. Influencers have bought the stock because of my conviction on this story.
In the coming days, I will be design a new look to show the vision I see as a shareholder.
Roll Groupon.
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Exited $TGEN.
In today's market, being too early is the same as being wrong. The opportunity cost is too high to sit dead money for 2 years waiting for material progress.
Lesson learned: I’d rather buy back in at a higher price once tech and orders are confirmed. The price of waiting is far greater than the premium for validation.
I do wish them best of luck.
It's not all fluff in investing. We have to be transparent even when things don't go as planned.
Fortunately, I didn't realize losses here, but I did waste a lot of time.
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