Daniel

406 posts

Daniel

Daniel

@dmu1313

Katılım Aralık 2020
416 Takip Edilen44 Takipçiler
Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
3/3 In the world of crypto, @Polymarket is likely to be replaced by @HyperliquidX . Hyperliquid will offer a superior trading experience and better liquidity.
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
2/ @RobinhoodApp initially used @Kalshi in the backend, but Robinhood is now building its own competitor to Kalshi. Once Robinhood finishes doing that, Kalshi will lose a lot of its distribution.
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
1/ I continue to be shocked that @Kalshi and @Polymarket are being valued at ~$20B. Both these companies are essentially 0's unless they are acquired. They are poorly built and have no moat. They also have competitors entering the space who will likely displace them.
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
@bidetblade @saylor People covering shorts is probably part of it. Also probably speculators expecting Bitcoin and $MSTR to go up a lot in the short term, and they want a leveraged instrument.
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Michael H
Michael H@bidetblade·
@dmu1313 @saylor Oh yeah wtf. How does bitcoin go up like 4-5% and then $MSTR go up like 15%, but they’re a big pot of bitcoin with like 10-20% leverage. Shouldn’t they be going up like 5-6% or something? Idk. Crazy world bro.
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
@EricBalchunas I wouldn't read too much into this yet. Saylor was buying a lot this past week because of $STRC issuance.
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Eric Balchunas
Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas·
$MSBT up 8% since launch a week ago, $NGHT up 3.5%, which means majority of btc returns have come during US trading hours. Very prelim but I'm interested to see how this develops.
Eric Balchunas tweet media
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
The complexity of doing taxes is making me crash out right now. I crash out every year, but I'm crashing out this year too.
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
A lot of people attribute getting fat in their late 20s and 30s to their metabolism slowing down, but your metabolism doesn't slow down until you hit 60. The real reason is that you just became a fat fuck. Doing my part to fight misinformation 👍
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
I hate statements like: "Hi, <job/etc> here! <Insert opinion>" I understand they are trying to build credibility, but I assume that anyone who does this is retarded. Show some courage and share your opinion without credentials. Let your ideas be evaluated on their merit alone.
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
I can read Donald Trump's mind. This was the easy part though. The hard part is guessing what happens in the next 2 weeks. Trump wants Iran's uranium and seems to think it's a non-negotiable. Iran doesn't seem willing to give it up. Not sure how this will get resolved.
Daniel@dmu1313

No one knows if a deal with Iran will be made before tonight, but the fact that everyone thinks Trump is really going to blow up Iran this time is good for him. He needs the world (and Iran) to take his threat seriously in order to make a deal. I think a deal is made.

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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
@bidetblade Long whatever you're bullish on and have some far out of the money S&P500 put options that expire this week or next week just in case they really do blow up all of Iran.
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
No one knows if a deal with Iran will be made before tonight, but the fact that everyone thinks Trump is really going to blow up Iran this time is good for him. He needs the world (and Iran) to take his threat seriously in order to make a deal. I think a deal is made.
Daniel@dmu1313

I think Trump has to follow through if the Iranians don't make a deal or else he loses the ability to negotiate going forward. But I don't think he would destroy ALL of Iran's power plants. That would allow for continued negotiations with more urgency.

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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
@bidetblade I think they thought the Iranian people would start a revolution and topple the government once the leader was killed but that did not happen.
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Michael H
Michael H@bidetblade·
@dmu1313 I really wonder what our “win condition” was when we went in to this war.
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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
I think Trump has to follow through if the Iranians don't make a deal or else he loses the ability to negotiate going forward. But I don't think he would destroy ALL of Iran's power plants. That would allow for continued negotiations with more urgency.
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse

Honestly I think he might do it

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Daniel
Daniel@dmu1313·
@bidetblade Yea pretty sure that bomb last year didn't work. Even if a deal is made in the short term, I could see the U.S. going back in 1-2 years from now. Maybe instead of "forever wars", it'll be "mini wars every 1-2 years".
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Michael H
Michael H@bidetblade·
@dmu1313 Yo I don’t even know what we are trying to negotiate that we didn’t already have before the war. Like: no trying to get nuclear weapons? I thought we solved that after we bombed Fordow and set their nuclear program back many years. But < 1y later, they’re “2 weeks away” again 🤦‍♂️
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