Matt Smith

With Bitcoin back at $69k, the 2021 peak, I have started buying some of my crypto back to capture the spread from Oct 4 sells. Still have a LARGE cash position. But, locking in some gains from this fall. BTC, ETH, and XRP. A big victory for me. Now we hunt for a bottom.

For a reference point of where Bitcoin is compared to past behavior, it has reached the 100-week moving average. BTC has only come back to the 100-week moving average during bear markets. In 2014, 2018 & 2022, the 100-week moving average provided a period of temporary stability.

Hi

As the market continues to struggle to see TOTAL2 and the Russell 2000 break out, I have decided to take a defensive play. I am actively selling 1/3 of my entire crypto holdings until the market proves it can escape. In today's video, I expressed how it's such a "make or break" moment where the market is. This is the escape zone, or the rejection zone. It's the all-time high battle. Where markets turn euphoric and exciting or horrifyingly ugly. There are several bull cases, and several bear cases. But the market needs to prove itself from here. As we have finally reached September, it has been a month I always intended to take some profits in. I talked about it for months leading up to it. I make a lot of charts, but I'm not a "day trader." September 19th was the date that 95% of my crypto holdings reached Long Term Capital Gains tax status. Which means I've held 95% of my crypto for over a year. It was a date I anxiously waited for, frequently thinking "can it get here any faster?" And, we just so happen to be at a major resistance point and inflection level at the same time, making it technically appropriate as well. I rarely make trades, so this is a big deal for me. The last time I publicly did major sells was in March and April of 2024. But, with the market waddling here, unable to decide yet. I am left with this overwhelming feeling that I'm gambling by doing nothing and hoping and wishing for it to breakout. I don't like that feeling. And it feels like the right decision is for me to de-risk some, and await for it to break out, and then re-asses entries into coins I'm passionate about. Rather than this laundry list of things I own. But to be able to enter more precisely into the ones I really want if the breakout comes. You shouldn't rely on my choice of coins, as I just go based on data of user activity, social engagement, percentage drawdowns and developer activity. But I don't mind sharing them with you. The coins that interest me in the event of a breakout into all-time highs are XRP, SUI, ETH, LINK, ADA, and SOL. No small cap gems that'll 100X. (Sorry) Just simple boomer stuff. And no promises they'll do anything. I broadly went through my portfolio and reduced without favoring anything. Not as a restructuring for a bear, which of course could come, but just as a risk reduction in this environment of uncertainty while the market makes its decision. If we get the breakout in the Russell and TOTAL2, I have no problem flushing cash right back in to ride a breakout. It's merely 3% away for the Russell 2000 and 9% away for the altcoin market. But, I know this is the right decision for me with the level it is at, and the timing of where we are in September. Some coins I took major gains on. Some, I took losses. But in the end, my portfolio is near record highs after being in this market for 8+ years, and it feels appropriate. Hopefully in a week from now I'm quote tweeting this and saying "blasted cash back in." But till then, it's a waiting game for the market to dish out its cards.