David Sabino

1.3K posts

David Sabino

David Sabino

@dsabs11

Mostly poor takes on stocks. Sometimes talk about pizza. CPA, CMA (in a prior life). Owner of Sabino’s Pizza Pub, est. 2019. Let’s go White Sox!

Leander, TX Katılım Mart 2014
1.6K Takip Edilen245 Takipçiler
Kalshi
Kalshi@Kalshi·
JUST IN: Elon Musk says money "won't matter" in 2036 due to AI and robots
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Small Cap Snipa
Small Cap Snipa@SmallCapSnipa·
MORGAN STANLEY: “INSUFFICIENT POWER TO SUPPORT PLANNED AI DATA CENTER BUILD-OUTS.” The firm sees a power shortage between 2026 & 2027 totaling 38 gigawatts “We believe that converting existing Bitcoin mining operations and pipeline MWs to AI DC’s represents an attractive proposition, especially given the time-to-power advantage powered shell providers can offer.”
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Courtney Finnicum
Courtney Finnicum@courtney883·
We are all in agreement that the White Sox #1 priority at the deadline needs to be starting pitching, right?
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@AlexisWrem1747 We’ve already done this. Many people are upset. Others shrug their shoulders. The Board doesn’t care either way. Nothing will change.
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Morten Alexis Wrem
Morten Alexis Wrem@AlexisWrem1747·
$IREN Northwise Project replied to one of my comments with this: “$IREN has extremely high upside, but still retains key execution risks. This is likely to mean that when sentiment turns favorable again, IREN is likely to run fast and far ahead of the market, but will suffer a compressed multiple when opinion turns negative, as it is now.” And honestly, I think it raises an interesting question. IREN will hopefully be able to finance a meaningful part of its future expansion through customer prepayments from many more large contracts. But even with prepayments, this remains an extremely capital-intensive journey, and shareholder dilution will most likely continue for years. So shareholders are being asked to provide capital, accept dilution and carry a significant part of the execution risk while waiting for management to prove that it can successfully deliver the full strategy. Meanwhile, IREN’s two Co-CEOs have already secured approximately 18.2 million RSUs combined, primarily for remaining in their positions through the vesting period, rather than through clearly defined performance targets. So if Northwise Project’s description is correct, we are looking at a company with enormous upside, but also substantial execution risk, years of potential dilution and a valuation that can be heavily compressed whenever sentiment turns negative. At the same time, management has already secured an extraordinary reward before the full journey has been successfully completed. I am genuinely interested in hearing how other investors view this structure. Does this sound like an attractive and shareholder-friendly investment case, or has the balance between shareholder risk and management reward become too one-sided?
Northwise Project@InvestNorthwise

@AlexisWrem1747 $IREN has extremely high upside, but still retains key execution risks. This is likely to mean that when sentiment turns favorable again, Iren is likely to run fast and far ahead of the market, but will suffer a compressed multiple when opinion turns negative (as it is now).

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Ross Gerber
Ross Gerber@GerberKawasaki·
Do not bet against SpaceX. People should learn their lessons from the early Tesla days. They are doing incredible things and one must think very big to understand their goals. Valuations blah blah. Yes it’s true. That’s irrelevant to what this incredible company is doing… $SPCX
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@Lazarus_Capital If you love dogshit datacenter companies with a bunch of former Texas politicians looking to pump and dump while not really knowing how to actually build or even design a datacenter…$FRMI is your jam
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LeBron James
LeBron James@KingJames·
I thought I was done when the season ended. I wasn't ready to announce it, and I knew I needed some time to really decide, but I was pretty sure I played my last game. I was honest at that last press conference when I said I needed to look at myself and deicide if I still love
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@BowTiedBroke FairPlay, CO and other adjacent ski towns in Colorado are also seeing big price drops
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BowTiedBroke
BowTiedBroke@BowTiedBroke·
Here is my personal list of vacation markets that I think are going to see the highest Foreclosure rates over next 2-3 years: 1) Broken Bow, OK 2) Blue Ridge, GA 3) Elijay, GA 4) Maggie Valley, NC 5) Helen, GA 6) Beech Mtn, NC 7) Mineral Bluff/Cherry Log, GA 8) Eureka Springs, AR 9) McCall, ID 10) Sisters, OR 11) Sandpoint, ID 12) Payson/White Mtns, AZ 13) Whitefish, MT 14) Lake of Ozarks, MO 15) Leavenworth, WA Many of these were "Second home/family vacation cabin" markets before Covid. Then the lockdown caused a flood of AirBnB speculators in many small towns. That caused prices to skyrocket and a lot of FOMO buyers to jump on the "AirBnB is passive income" train from 2022 - 2025. I am already seeing quite a few foreclosures go all the way to fruition in some of the above towns (the process usually takes 1 - 2 years from the date of the last mortgage payment by the owner). I go into details of each of these towns in my Newsletter I'm releasing today. In the next hour, I'll be dropping it at Bowtiedbroke.substack.com where I break down a specific foreclosure in one of the above towns so you know how to spot them and how they progress along the path of: 1) Last Made Mortgage Payment 2) Short Sale Attempt 3) Foreclosure paperwork 4) Actual Default Foreclosure 5) Bank Asset Manager 6) Sale of Property by bank Today's write up will be wide open to everyone (because I feel this a very important topic to know/learn about in the next few years). If you've ever wondered what the Foreclosure process looks like and want to know more about what happened in the above towns, you will want to read it.
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@edzitron I dunno, google cloud was up nearly 90% YoY. Maybe that’s how.
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Sox On 35th
Sox On 35th@SoxOn35th·
#OTD in 2009, Mark Buehrle was perfect.
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@cmsinvests If you actually read the print adjusted eps missed but that is must be too hard to research. They also are guiding to ~$600B+ capex for next 3 years which might be a BIT much $GOOG
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CMS Invests
CMS Invests@cmsinvests·
Can someone please explain how $GOOGL is down over -3% after beating earnings by more than 200%?
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@neel_epochal Would love to see the benchmark comparisons used by FW. My own research is a list of shameful companies I would not want to be lumped in with. Appreciate the good fight, sir.
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Neel Khokhani
Neel Khokhani@neel_epochal·
Today I sent the attached letter to IREN's Chairman. Four pages. If you only have two minutes: page 2 imagines the Chair explaining the founders' $800M award over lunch with Warren Buffett. The three asks are at the end, all achievable before our AGM in November. We are not against this company. We built our positions believing in it. We are asking that the largest award in its history be earned, not merely received. Read it. Form your own view. November is when it counts.
Neel Khokhani tweet mediaNeel Khokhani tweet mediaNeel Khokhani tweet mediaNeel Khokhani tweet media
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@qcapital2020 I think the same. Why would the source of so much Gemini logic/output become less valuable? Especially the type of real-time commentary that $RDDT supplies $GOOG. I’m short $172.5 puts expiring Friday. I’ll take assignment going into earnings instead of rolling
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 Q-Cap 
 Q-Cap @qcapital2020·
$RDDT down 5% because people think Reddit is walking away from Google? I actually see the opposite. This reads like a company telling Google, “The next contract won’t be $60M buddy” Google needs Reddit’s data 10x more today than it did when they signed the original deal
 Q-Cap  tweet media
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CNN
CNN@CNN·
Model recruiter Daniel Siad, who introduced young women to Jeffrey Epstein, found dead at his home in France. cnn.it/4wNonne
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
Shareholders are constantly punished. $CELH saved itself by acquiring Alani Nu, but the market doesn’t like that Alani is eating into core Celsius brand. Rockstar transaction not hugely liked either. They have almost no international sales, when that inflects upward I think a re-rate happens
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dray
dray@drayinvests·
Can someone explain to me why $CELH is dumping today? Down almost 40% YTD
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@optionscjp Chanos is the bottom signal. When he does his rounds on the podcasts that’s always the time to buy
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Options selling with Christian
This AI correction has been very similar to any correction we’ve had recently All the bears want to get loud after the names already got cut in half
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@Lazarus_Capital It’s not exactly something that is taught in entry level finance courses, which most of retail hasn’t passed to begin with. Each convertible should be issued with a cheat sheet at where the share price starts to work against the debt.
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David Sabino
David Sabino@dsabs11·
@MichaelKudrna $IREN got financing from Goldman and JPM recently on debt rated single A. If I’m a big bank I wouldn’t lend to anyone other than $NBIS $CIFR or $IREN. Best in class.
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Mike Kudrna
Mike Kudrna@MichaelKudrna·
Banks won't touch Data Centers.....JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, PNC and US Bank all got asked about data center construction loans in the past week. All 4 are backing away from the hottest asset class on earth. Chase CFO, verbatim: 'We were just like... yeah, we're not doing that.' A $700 billion buildout is getting financed by lenders with no deposit insurance and no regulator reading their loan books. The banks arent scared of AI. Theyre scared of the paper. Last time banks quietly stepped back and shadow lenders stepped in, we named a whole crisis after it.
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