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Exactly! It’s extremely hard for the same risk story to completely suck the air out of the room twice. We saw this during the pandemic, and more recently with tariff scares, where the initial risk got priced in quickly, but it proved difficult for the same narrative to materially re-emerge and dominate markets a second time.

Alright, I was a little cocky to write that the “crisis is over”, but from a market perspective that has basically been the conclusion more or less since

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@dailychartbook Thanks you so much my brother! 🙏🏼💪🏼

Yesterday, Bitcoin finally snapped its 4th-longest streak without making a new 100-day high vs Gold. For what it's worth, here’s how Bitcoin has performed 100 days later after going at least 100 days without a new 100-day high... 😵‍💫 Avg return: +31.9% | Median: +28.3% | Win rate: 73% | N = 11

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In momentum markets, the short-term 5-day EMA tends to act like a pretty solid support/resistance line. And if you look at our color-coded chart, the S&P 500 has been hanging out in bullish RSI territory for most of this rally — which also lines up almost perfectly with whether price is above or below the 5-day EMA. Also, on 65min bars, 5 days works out to 30 bars!

Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 gained about 1.5%, while valuations actually slipped by roughly 0.5%. 👉🏼 In other words, we’re probably not pricing in what’s going right fast enough, given that valuations have continued to drift lower even as the S&P 500 edges higher. Read all about it here: dualityresearch.substack.com/p/a-tug-of-war…

Curve-wide breakout in oil! 🛢️ Every WTI crude oil futures contract, excluding the active front-month, hit a new settlement high today.

If there’s one thing we learned in recent years, it’s that once the market has gone through the trouble of pricing in a major risk, it doesn’t usually go back and re-prices the same story all over again. 👉🏼 Put differently, it’s extremely hard for the same risk story to completely suck the air out of the room twice! Link to today's note: dualityresearch.substack.com/p/a-tug-of-war…

After adjusting for wages and fuel efficiency, gas prices are basically at the 30-year average @dualityresearch dualityresearch.substack.com/p/a-tug-of-war…

Despite it's +12% gain, the S&P 500 has gotten 6% cheaper this year. via @DualityResearch

@MikeZaccardi Thanks for sharing Mike! 🙏🏼

S&P 500 record high... P/E down 10% from last October @DualityResearch dualityresearch.substack.com/p/a-tug-of-war…

A good example for that is what we saw over the last 2 weeks. The S&P 500 gained about 1.5%, while valuations actually slipped by roughly 0.5%. In other words, we’re probably not pricing in what’s going right fast enough, given that valuations have continued to drift lower even as the S&P 500 edges higher.

To summarize Warren's views: he's bullish stocks. Earnings expectations are rising so fast now it's as if we're emerging from a recession (that's what is unprecedented). Analysts are very often right. Yes, earnings upgrades are very concentrated in semis. But that's not bearish He's still very concerned about Hormuz and is bullish oil outright and also thinks it's a great hedge here for stocks. Underweight bonds Fwiw he said 99% of his charts his team & he make are made on Caliban. IDK about this one, this is a pretty wild one. 3/3

OUT NOW - how @WarrenPies sees it: - Stocks: "I'm scared out of my mind & also very bullish" - Earnings "unprecedented" on AI compute scramble - Oil headed higher... "crisis is not over yet" Apple🔊shorturl.at/a0jXA Spotify📽️shorturl.at/6J9Jt 1/3

@The_Pro_Invest Always possible. Or... 2027 EPS estimates reach $400 by year-end, market slaps a 22.5x multiple on those earnings and we're suddenly at 9000 SPX.

@DualityResearch Unless for whatever spooky geo/econ reason multiple compresses ;)