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Duality Research
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Software stocks opened down -2.8% relative to Semis but erased nearly all of the underperformance, closing essentially flat vs chip names.
$IGV / $SMH
Duality Research@DualityResearch
@JC_ParetsX $IGV quietly outperforming the S&P 500 this week... Not just cap-weighted SPX, but equal-weight SPX ($RSP) and even SPX ex-Tech ($SPXT).
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Duality Research retweetledi
There seem to be a confluence of technical patterns and achievements occurring with crypto assets and products. From Head-n-Shoulder patterns to supportive VWAP-level bounces.
$BTC $BITX $MSTR $BMNR $ETH $GBTC $IBIT $GLD
h/t @DualityResearch
Finom Group@GroupFinom
When a NEW PATTERN develops, I pay attention. Most every Head-n-Shoulder pattern has led to lower prices for Bitcoin. A new, INVERSE head-n-shoulder pattern is suggesting bearish conviction is lacking, such that this may be signaling a profound buy point. $BTC $IBIT $BITX $ETH $BMNR $MSTR $GBTC $GLD
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It’s not gonna be that easy, right?
...Right!? 👀
bitcoin:native
Duality Research@DualityResearch
Bitcoin has seen massive capitulation since rolling over in early May! Since peaking on October 6 last year, cumulative outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have reached $10.5 billion. What’s staggering is that 89% of that entire drawdown has come in the last 2 months alone, highlighting just how aggressive the recent wave of selling has been.
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In today’s note, we took a deeper look at the growing divergence between Tech and the rest of the market.
Is this just a healthy reset, or are weakening technicals pointing to a broader regime change?
Read more here 👉🏼 dualityresearch.substack.com/p/the-tale-of-…
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@TheProfInvestor Almost every S&P 500 sector is thrusting to new highs, while Technology is beginning to see a breadth collapse that’s starting to spread across longer timeframes. 👇🏼
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This chart does not get enough attention.
What you are looking at is the ratio of individual S&P 500 stock volatility vs the index volatility.
Right now that ratio is at an
ALL TIME HIGH. Higher than the dot-com bubble. Higher than the financial crisis. Higher than COVID. 😳
Here is what that actually means.
Individual stocks are moving violently in different directions. But because they are moving against each other, the index looks calm.
This is the most stock picker friendly environment in 30 years of recorded data.
The calm you see in the index is hiding a war happening underneath the surface.
Losers are losing big.
And the S&P 500 just sits there looking boring.
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Over the next 15 months, markets are assigning roughly the same probability to one Fed cut as they are to four rate hikes.
More importantly, the most likely outcome priced by rates traders is for the Fed to hike at least twice by the end of next year, which would put Fed Funds 50 basis points above the just recently updated median dot for the end of 2027.
Read more here 👉🏼 dualityresearch.substack.com/p/the-tale-of-…
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi
55% chance of a 2026 Fed rate hike @kalshi kalshi.com/markets/kxfedh…
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Our latest Thoughts on the Market 👇🏼
substackfwd.xyz/?url=https://d…
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Despite Technology being the worst-performing S&P 500 sector this week, Software stocks outperformed the S&P 500 ex-Tech.
Read more here 👉🏼 dualityresearch.substack.com/p/week-29-b1a
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Duality Research retweetledi
S&P 500 P/E ratio has slipped below 20x again... how low will it get as we head into a weak seasonal stretch? @dualityresearch
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@JC_ParetsX $IGV quietly outperforming the S&P 500 this week...
Not just cap-weighted SPX, but equal-weight SPX ($RSP) and even SPX ex-Tech ($SPXT).
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Duality Research retweetledi
Tech sector P/E below its Liberation Day nadir @dualityresearch
dualityresearch.substack.com
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Duality Research retweetledi
2027 S&P 500 EPS forecast $402
It was $325 fifteen months ago @dualityresearch
NTM a record high $376
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Technology's forward P/E ratio has fallen to 21x, leaving it 18% below its 5-year average and 8% below its 10-year average.
So much for the notion that the sector remains an obvious bubble.
Read more here 👉🏼 dualityresearch.substack.com/p/week-29-b1a
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Duality Research@DualityResearch
From our note two weeks ago: "The backdrop for the US economy remains broadly supportive. That means a recession isn’t our base case for the remainder of 2026 — or as we head into next year. And that’s an important starting point. If the economy keeps holding up, there’s a good chance earnings estimates will too." (dualityresearch.substack.com/p/second-half-…) Awesome chart here from @mattcerminaro showing that forward earnings estimates tend to be remarkably accurate outside of recessions. (Great read here 👉🏼 chartkidmatt.com/p/is-there-an-…)
QME
@DualityResearch Good thing we already know what the earnings will be and the future, and that that can’t change. 😎
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