@LayahHeilpern@PeterSchiff Hahaha and you still want it below 50 . This is going to be the funnest year ever for Crypto ! When you DCA ing in Maestro !
If #bitcoin became the world's reserve currency and hit $1 million, Peter would still be screaming it's a ponzi...
I think it's fair to stay I won this round.
@PeterSchiff I'm inviting you for a rematch on my podcasts, whatdya say? 😁
@dub_rene@NoLimitGains That's hilarious! If they actually did that, the price of Bitcoin would surge. Oil trading forced onto the blockchain, traditional banks are devastated😂
Every day I spend hours going through institutional data, macro flows, and market positioning.
Where I’m deploying capital now and where I’m going next, all of it will go inside intheassembly.com
I completely understand that $199/month isn’t for everyone, but that’s the point. I’m not building the biggest room, I’m building the best one.
If you feel like it’s not for you, that’s completely fine. Nobody is forcing you to join, and neither am I.
But if you want to join, just know that the door closes in ~21 hours and will most likely never reopen, because like I said, I want to keep it small and exclusive so I have the time to get to know every single member.
Thank you.
🚨 JUST 6 HOURS LEFT
Trump's deadline to Iran will end in 6 hours.
The US administration thinks Iran will respond before that deadline.
What do you think?
@LayahHeilpern Markets don’t exist to hand you perfect entries. If it were that easy, everyone would be rich. And remember—the classic line: past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.”
Bitcoin is down 46% from its ATH and people think that's the discount.
Now is not a bad buying opportunity but:
- Iran war is only 30 days in
- Oil is above $100
- Hormuz is still blocked
The discount is going to come after the damage, not during it.
Every time a war breaks out people say bitcoin has "decoupled" and every time they're wrong.
They said it with Russia in 2022, BTC rallied 40% then lost 70%.
They're saying it again now with Iran.
Bitcoin hasn't decoupled from anything, it just hasn't priced in the damage yet.
As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower.
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@LayahHeilpern Oh and please be quiet no one likes a told you so . You’re gonna be wrong you’re gonna see . Happy to be long against you . Nice figure by the way
Everyone wants to know if now is a good time to buy crypto
My view is that yes these are very good prices to get in at.
However ask yourself:
Can I stomach a potential 30-50% draw down from here?
Because real fear, panic, hysteria, anguish, DESPAIR and DEPRESSION hasn't set in yet...
And it's coming... it always comes!
@LayahHeilpern Right Layha . Longs open . Your short against me ! I’m buying now because you and every other retard on the planet is waiting for lower lows . Here’s a newsflash we are not in a bear market not yet ! Nationstates - wallst power houses- sovereign wealth funds . Continents too.
@LayahHeilpern Or they are tricking you to hold back so they can buy more while everyone is waiting for the past performance to kick in . lol then they are going to trick you to sell on the way up .
Everyone wants to know what’s next
My view is we will bounce from here because we dropped very quickly
This is called a relief rally
But make no mistake, the trend is down.
We are going to make lower lows throughout 2026.
The market will trick you and make you think "we're so back"
But we’re not.
I could be wrong but I’ve been correct about everything so far…
I’ll be honest. This has been the easiest minor drawdown for risk assets over the last 3 years because it has been so obvious and controlled. Only inexperienced, nervous newbs actually think there is something fundamental going on. We will be higher shortly. Maybe much higher.
There are a ton of macro indicators to follow besides the ISM. I tweeted my thoughts about the ISM and had about 10 different "macro guys" tell me why I'm wrong.
Well why don't we talk about other macro indicators that affect crypto?
A lot of people think global M2 is going to expand a lot from here. I say it tops within a few months and starts to drop as the DXY starts to rally. Remember, BTC always tops before M2. In fact last cycle, BTC bottomed shortly after M2 topped.
US interest rates remain above the 2 year yield, which I tend to approximate as the neutral rate. If that is true, then rates are still restrictive and it does not look like we have any immediate rate cuts.
The unemployment rate tends to rise into the summer, which we will likely have to start contending with soon.
Hires, job openings, and quits are all very low.
SPX is near all time highs, making it difficult for the Fed to provide the liquidity needed to really move the crypto markets.
You say QT ended, but so what?
In 2019 QT ended and BTC still dropped for a while.
It's easy to pick a narrative about a single macro indicator and run with it, but the macro is very complicated.
The truth is these guys do not get to have a monopoly on using macro to justify their views.
I can look at all the same data and can come to a different conclusion.
Coming to a different conclusion does not mean I do not take macro into account, which is a lie many of them try to sell.
If anyone of the guys running with the business cycle narrative had called the top in Q4, they would be preaching something completely different right now. They would then feel like they are allowed to interpret the macro in a bearish way. But because they did not, they have to keep the charade going by attacking anyone who disagrees with them.
It's gaslighting to say that anyone who thinks we are in a bear market is ignoring the macro.
I would argue that anyone who called for alt season at any point over the last 4-5 years are in fact the ones who blatantly ignored the macro.
Every one is a genius in a bull market.