durial

this still might happen

the watch dealer who sold me an AP near the top of the market in march 2022 still texts me happy birthday every year

don't have a position in SIVE currently. bought it shortly after serenity shilled it the first time around 5-6 SEK but sold for a 3x (on quite small size), then rebought it again a bit later and sold for a 2x (also small size) clearly the right choice was buying in size and just holding 😆 I underestimated how far serenity could send it so quickly obviously the stock is being pumped by serenity + his followers, but that doesn't mean its a completely unjustified pump or that there are no fundamentals I don't have much of an opinion on the fundamentals of the company + many have already written bull/bear cases am pretty interested in the SIVE earnings call on 29 May to see what numbers they come up with and how that fits in with the 20x valuation increase definitely not against rebuying if the earnings call is great, but for now just watching and waiting

for hyperevm tokens there are 2 options 1. somehow shift some of the value flow from hyerpcore fees <-> HYPE token to the hyperevm to help it grow downside: that value is directly taken away from the HYPE token 2. provide no value support and focus entirely on pumping the HYPE token downside: hyperevm is then just another mostly dead evm chain personally I'm for option 2. hyperliquid's PMF is hypercore, not the hyperevm maybe someone builds something very successful on the hyperevm, but I wouldn't do anything that takes any value away from the HYPE token

@rbthreek think of everything that makes the HYPE token great then realize not a single one of those things applies to random hyperEVM tokens

Why hasn’t there been a breakthrough coin on hypeevm?

interesting hynix up 7% today while square is flat. I’m currently 50/50 split exposure between pure hynix and square exposure any thoughts square holders? @babyfolio @daniel_koss

@PhotonBull always surprises me when people say bloom is a better company than fcel like no shit bloom is valued at 86b and fcel is at 1.3b. the market already knows which is better

Seeing a lot of people pointing out that $FCEL is the weaker business compared to Bloom Energy $BE They are right, and it is not close if you just look at quality. Bloom has the solid oxide platform, the Oracle warrant, the $5B Brookfield initiative, a backlog near $20B, and it is already printing operating income. FCEL is smaller, molten carbonate, still loss making, and a history of diluting. On a pure business quality screen it loses every line. Let's factor in the dynamics that come with investing in the stocks The bull case was never that $FCEL beats Bloom. It is that the data center power shortfall is too large and too urgent for one supplier to clear. Interconnection waits run years, grid upgrades run longer, and the one thing hyperscalers cannot buy is time. That is what turns fuel cells from backup into primary baseload, and it is why the addressable demand spills past Bloom toward anyone who can ship megawatts now. FuelCell just packaged exactly that into standardized 12.5MW blocks, signed up to 450MW with SDCL, and watched its proposal pipeline grow roughly 275%. Then look at how the two are priced: > Bloom carries around $80B of market cap on roughly $2.4B of trailing revenue, near 34x sales. > FCEL carries about $1.4B on $158M of revenue, under 9x sales. The market is valuing one as the data center power story and the other as a legacy fuel cell name. The inflection is the moment FCEL stops being priced as the latter. It does not have to out execute Bloom. It only needs the market to recognize it sits in the same end market, and a move from a 9x legacy multiple toward even a fraction of Bloom's datacenter multiple does the rest. This makes $FCEL a more asymmetric opportunity than $BE in my opinion

@based16z yes thats right memory is up again

Great Monday open in the stock market with semis leading again

@babyfolio time to full port everything into my brokerage rather than this cursed industry

@durial In crypto there are no floors

thought $100m floor was made of diamond?

@_lucaslov @babyfolio DRAM or just buy MU + SNDK

@babyfolio Not available in my brokerage account :/

For those who don't know what SK Square ($402340), I've written an article about 3 weeks ago about them. I think this is probably one of the best R/R opportunities in the market right now. I can see a 3x in 12-18 months.

@babyfolio 30% but i’m ptsd stricken so will probably never go 100% all in without some mega crash

Holding cash this weekend must be painful, how much cash are you guys holding? I'll start: 2%

they are nuking it below 115m its over

i'm bullish on memory (1/3rd of my equities port is memory) but I find it hard to believe there won't be at supply glut in the coming years at some point while margins are so high, there is huge incentive for existing + new suppliers to ramp up production as much as possible. this is already happening and new fabs will likely be online as soon as late 2026/early 2027. you also have china ramping up supply themselves demand looks like its winning for 2026 + 2027, but it is still unclear what the supply/demand balance will look like for 2028 and onwards. maybe hyperscalers continue increasing capex for years to come and demand continues to outpace supply, but maybe not and of course the market will start pricing that in way earlier than 2028 for now i think the memory party continues, but I think you have to be hyper focused on forecasts, mostly for late 2027/2028 and onwards (we already know there is a shortage for 2026 and at least part of 2027)

The memory re-rate has officially begun. It’s time to stop viewing this sector through a 2010s lens. ​Why am I confident that memory will continue to trade at higher industry multiples? Because the "cyclical" narrative is broken. Memory is now foundational to the AI stack, it is an inseparable part of every single GPU. If memory is essential to the architecture, then memory is just as "cyclical" as the GPU itself. ​If AI infrastructure leaders like $NVDA can command a ~35–40x forward P/E, and growth-focused peers like $AMD trade at even higher premiums, why are the memory titans that power these chips still being valued at mid-single-digit multiples? ​This disconnect won't last. Even if commodity pricing fluctuates, these companies are no longer just cyclical suppliers, they are essential utility providers for the AI era. Demand isn't going down and the market is finally waking up to the structural re-rating of the memory sector. ​How to play the memory shift: $000660 (SK Hynix) $MU (Micron) $005930 (Samsung) $402340 (SK Square) $285A (Kioxia) ​Or, keep it simple and hold $DRAM

and we have arrived! its over

@golfwangsnorlax 2 days? try 2 hours

Swing trading crypto coins for longer than 2 days

the issue with 2-3 alts (ZEC HYPE NEAR) stealing the show and running hard while BTC stagnates is that the rest of the market mostly gets mega nuked as what little liquidity there is in the weak market gets siphoned and then usually those strong alts see a retrace afterwards anyway overall it’s a bad sign when you have just a couple big runners while everything including btc is nuking

this might still happen

equities port is roughly 35% cash 30% memory (hynix/square/micron) 10% crdo 10% fcel 10% bb/nok 5% png i always like having a moderate-large cash position to buy any big dips. being all in with no dry powder gives me PTSD from 3 crypto cycles 😆 probs not looking to add any more individual stocks but wouldn't mind flipping bb/nok into nbis as those are just shortish term trades crypto port is still pretty cash heavy. sold off some HYPE between 59-62 but its the only position I have besides asteroid and some btc. wouldn't mind rebuying ZEC in the 400s