Massimo@Rainmaker1973
About 300 miles (480 km) off the coast of Oregon, a submarine volcano roughly the size of a small city lies beneath 4,900 feet (1,500 meters) of seawater. Known as Axial Seamount, it has been steadily inflating as magma accumulates beneath the seafloor.
Scientists had predicted an eruption for 2025 based on patterns of seafloor uplift and earthquake activity observed before its previous eruption in 2015. That forecast did not materialize. New data show the volcano continues to inflate, though at a slower rate, and seismic activity persists. Researchers now expect the next eruption to occur sometime in 2026, most likely in the mid-to-late part of the year.
The updated forecast comes from a detailed analysis of inflation and seismicity rates. Scientists believe a higher threshold — possibly around 500 earthquakes per day combined with additional seafloor swelling — may be required to trigger an eruption. Axial Seamount remains one of the best-monitored underwater volcanoes in the world, thanks to a network of seafloor sensors from the Ocean Observatories Initiative’s Regional Cabled Array.
When it does erupt, the event is expected to produce extensive lava flows across the seafloor and trigger thousands of earthquakes in a short period. Because of its deep location far offshore, it poses no direct threat to human populations on land, making it an ideal natural laboratory for studying volcanic processes.
[Chadwick, W. W. (2025). A comparison of inflation and seismicity rates before and since the 2015 eruption at Axial Seamount and implications for eruption forecasting. Presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, New Orleans, December 2025]