Econdropout

@Riles178 @biancoresearch @0xBoolean Vix 60 calls for 2 months out is basically betting on the end of the world. Trading .05 at the time. I didn't own any assets. That cash out was my gateway into owning assets.

@econdropout @biancoresearch @0xBoolean What were you betting on? Not the world to end. You were probably holding assets or buying calls during the print. That's the opposite of betting on the end of the world.

We started the week with the President threatening to end a civilization. We ended the week with a new AI model that might end civilization (Anthropic's Mythos). So, OF COURSE, the S&P 500 has been up 7 days in a row, adding 2.5%.

@Riles178 @biancoresearch @0xBoolean #vixcalls

@Riles178 @biancoresearch @0xBoolean Well. I got paid during covid. Bought enough alcohol to fully supply a frat house for a month, and paid rent for 2 other people while we had a rager about every weekend for a while. I was making about $600 a week, and had 20k dropped in my lap. All during the end of the world.

@agtrader Bring me my brown pants

two months?????

Markets are delusional we’ve already lost: - ~30% of fertilizers - ~20% of LNG - ~14% of oil - ~30% of helium Any one of these on its own would be enough to trigger a crisis. Together, they form a systemic shock that risks pulling the global economy into a serious recession. Because these aren’t isolated commodities.... they sit at the core of entire production chains: Petrochemicals -> fertilizer -> food production Petrochemicals -> mining (copper, uranium, nickel) Petrochemicals -> plastics -> cars, electronics Petrochemicals -> drugs, rubber, textiles Helium -> semiconductors / AI chips Gas -> power generation Diesel -> transportation So this isn’t just an energy problem... it’s a full-spectrum supply shock hitting food, industry, tech, transportation and power at the same time. Without flows from Hormuz, the system doesn’t just slow down, it starts to break. And there is no policy tool that can replace missing physical supply.

@KasimirFreeman @chrismartenson Are you trusting the government again? Let's just watch the ship traffic through the straight and turn off the propaganda.

@chrismartenson Can you actually post the timeline of attacks with GMT+3 time stamps between April 7th 11:59pm and April 8th 11:59am? You appeal to data and reality, why not do so with your recent claims about ceasefire violation? GMT+3 or equivalent standard for all time claims.

Every time Iran has been struck, it has retaliated by striking something of equivalent value or importance. After an energy facility gets it, it will take months or years to repair, depending on which one we're talking about. Regardless of any ceasefire, there are shocks flowing through the system that will need to run their course. Full report: peakprosperity.pulse.ly/97augaeafa

@GearDisrespect @Frytechllc Well in that case, glad I could introduce you.

@econdropout @Frytechllc Never heard of him till just now.

16" Socom profile barreled upper is a winner. Runs well, and other than the loose nut behind the trigger is quite accurate. Would have got a roughly 2 MOA 9 shot group with cheap PMC M855, but I had some flyers. Need take it to the range and actually sit down with quality ammo.

@CRUDEOIL231 @OilCfd "Sharp rocks at the bottom?" "Most likely."

@OilCfd LFG~

I feel like the oil market has already crossed the point of no return, regardless of how this war plays out. At first this wave just swallowed up everything East of Suez. We saw force majeures popping up all over Asia and premiums going through the roof. But now the Atlantic wall has officially crumbled. Only oil nerds like us are checking this stuff lately, but seriously—just look at the North Sea Platts window and the USGC diffs. This is nowhere near normal. I know some ppl are getting all hyped up every time a single Handy tanker or LPG carrier squeaks through Hormuz, even claiming there’s a secret fleet of tankers slipping through. I highly doubt it. If supply was actually fine, Atlantic physical diffs wouldn't be screaming like this. These numbers only happen when you're hitting a massive supply shock. Like some of smart guys have noted, once you pass a certain threshold, it doesn't even matter if Hormuz reopens—the logistical bottlenecks will make it impossible to absorb the shock anytime soon. I’m pretty sure we’ve already crossed that line. #oott #iran

@TFL1728 Haha your side of the boat is sinking

Still think the US is losing the financial war? Look out below folks.

@GasBuddyGuy Youre assuming every barrel of crude is the same all over the world. Its not.

why gasoline is more isolated from the aggressive spikes that have hit jet fuel and diesel- there's more gasoline that comes out of a barrel than both jet and diesel combined- refiners can tinker with these yields based on type of oil being refined

@Frytechllc @PamaxTactical Fry i got yours already installed 😂. Im wondering about pamax.

@econdropout @PamaxTactical From me or the pamax re ship

@Frytechllc Short people post the most hate

@PamaxTactical @Frytechllc Did mine get shipped yet?

MBS-C Magnetic Buffer Systems are in stock and shipping. These are powered by @Frytechllc technology. These have proven exceptional with not only AR systems both DI and Piston but also alternative cartridges like 9mm / .300 BO / .450 Bushmaster. If your looking for recoil reduction and a brand new feel then definitely take a look at magnetic technology. #Pamaxtactical #magnetic #buffer #recoil #usamade

@GavMcCracken Including yourself.

@econdropout I am >99% confident that if oil goes too high, gold goes down, and if oil resets to $60, gold skyrockets. My port being mostly $MAI.V and $SU.TO is literally the perfect hedge, since $MAI is a low cost producer and $SU is a low cost producer. My CAGR since 2020 is over 3.8x/y

Just found out Bloomberg terminals are like discord for rich people. You can just slide into Jamie Dimon's dms

@GavMcCracken We're in a world where 9 sigma events are equivalent to stubbing your toe on the stairs. Theres no rules. My personal goal is to be harder to kill. Financially, physically, etc. Its not a bad idea to keep profits away from anything that could take it away from you.

@GavMcCracken If you dont take 20% off the table and lose it all you'll never forgive yourself. You murdered the market. Take a Lil W and stash it away. Buy a lake house. Buy a tube of gold eagles. Idc what you do with it. But ive lost the bag I just had before. And it SUCKS. Treat yourself.

@econdropout I would be amazed, would require gold to drop to $1200 while simultaneously oil would have to drop to below $30 and stay down there

@GavMcCracken Mene.com

@econdropout It wasn't using options, and it's currently sitting in mostly $MAI.V and $SU.TO, and a bunch of it in $CLMT LEAPs. No way all three of these go to 0.

@GavMcCracken Go buy a ridiculous gold chain. Hide it away, so that you can always have a bit locked away