Felix Ward

⭐ VoxTalks Economics NEW EPISODE ⭐ How much of western Europe’s economic transformation was made possible by gold & silver looted from the Americas? New research upends conventional wisdom, Yao Chen @erasmusuni tells @timsvengali @cepr_org. Subscribe: podfollow.com/voxtalks

𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀: 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁 new WP, joint w/ @YChen_ks and @econfward. We estimate the contribution of American precious metals to West Europe’s growth performance in the early modern period 👇

@ritwik_priya @nunopgpalma @AdamBrz ...but MV=PY accounting throws up an informative moment that explanations about the ultimate drivers of early modern price rises might want to match.

@ritwik_priya @nunopgpalma @AdamBrz Agreed. The equation of exchange identity is silent on how the causality runs, and MV=PY accounting results are not conclusive with respect to the question of what ultimately caused price rises...

Forthcoming, Explorations in Economic History: Reconstruction of the Spanish money supply, 1492-1810. Co-authored with the amazing duo of co-authors: @YChen_ks and @econfward. We ask: what accounts for the large increase in Spanish prices during c. 1492-1810?

@ritwik_priya @nunopgpalma Correct. This is an accounting exercise, similar in spirit to growth accounting.

@nunopgpalma Hi, the importance measure is interesting, but not sure how to 'interpret' it? E.g. if real GDP rather than prices is taken as the variable to be explained, we get: Money supply: 62% Prices: 35% Velocity: 3% It's mainly just a decomposition metric, right?

Explorations in Economic History, forthcoming; Working paper link: papers.tinbergen.nl/21033.pdf

New inroads for the quantitative study of early modern monetary history: "Reconstruction of the Spanish money supply, 1492-1810" synthesizes data on precious metal mining and their international flow to estimate Spain's early modern money stock. With @YChen_ks and @nunopgpalma.

Lesson from financial history: central banks leaning against credit booms with surprise interest rate hikes are more likely to trigger financial crises than prevent them. Our new research with @econfward and Lucas Ter Steege on vox today. @ECON_tribute voxeu.org/article/leanin…

What is the real effect of money? @adambrz, @YChen_ks @econward and I we use a natural experiment: Maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire (1531-1810). A one p.p. reduction in money growth caused a 1.3% drop in real output that persisted for several years ehes.org/EHES_170.pdf