Matt Bolock

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@DanielTNiles @epictrades1 Hard to see how the S&P maintains multiple expansion if crude holds above $100 and the long end of the curve keeps shifting higher. Higher input costs + higher discount rates usually equal compressed margins. Looking for that same convergence.

S&P +0.1% last wk, masks the troubles under the surface with oil +10% to $105 & 2/30 yr bond yields +18 bps. I said last wk in multiple interviews that either oil/ylds are wrong or the stock mkt is. Much like on Friday, I am expecting more convergence this wk. Both April CPI & PPI came in higher than expected last week stoking the fears that the rising oil prices from the Iran war which started in late February is now impacting inflation. In addition, there was some troubling developments in the semiconductor sector which has spearheaded the recent 18% rally in the S&P with a 69% gain in the SOX index from March 30th to Thursday May 14th. The Korean Kospi, which had been up 89% ytd through Thursday led by memory manufacturers Samsung Electronics +143% and Hynix +201% had its biggest intraday spread in history on Friday which triggered a temporary trading halt. The Kospi from an intra-day high of +0.8% finished down 6.1% with Samsung/Hynix closing down 6.6%/5.9%. This week, we will get some important earnings releases from $TGT on Wednesday and $WMT on Thursday with combined sales of ~$850B on how the consumer is handling the increase in gas prices. Most analysts are expecting solid results. This would match statements from the credit card companies and larger banks which indicated a resilient consumer when they reported. However, $MCD in reporting their quarterly earnings in early May, talked about a slowdown they were seeing in the lower-end consumer $NVDA results on Wednesday will speak to the health of the AI trade. While I expect another beat & raise quarter, the stock has declined each of the past 3 quarters in reaction to earnings the next day. The 5.5% decline in reaction to their January quarter results where revenues were 3% above consensus and they guided 7% above for the next quarter was particularly noteworthy. The stock was also up 43% from 3/30-5/14. This is a very different risk vs reward than on April 5th when I wrote "$NVDA and $GOOGL remain my favorite ways to play agentic AI while the server microprocessor vendors are key new beneficiaries from the increase in orchestration needed." As an aside, Google was up 47% from 3/30-5/14. From a bigger picture basis, the number one thing I am focused on when investing is risk vs reward. I posted on X on March 31st “History May not Repeat Itself but it Often Does Rhyme” comparing 2026 to 97/98 where macro scares caused the S&P to have intra-year declines of 11% and 19% but finished the years up 31% and 27%. I also mentioned again the benefits of Agentic AI “So names like $INTC and $AMD should benefit.” End of March was a great risk vs reward for investing. As I stated in interviews last week, however, the risk versus reward over the short-term is now very different. The S&P bounced 18% from March 30th through Thursday May 14th led by the Semiconductor Index that surged 69% but: 1) oil has risen to $105 versus $84 on April 17th when a resolution seemed more likely and versus the mid-$60s before the Iran war started 2) bond yields are at new highs for the yr with the 30 yr firmly above 5% and 2 yr firmly above 4% and up over 20 bps and 35 bps since April 17th 3) recent data seems to indicate that rising oil prices is seeping into inflation Until oil and bond yields look like they are going to come back down for good reasons versus bad ones like demand destruction, I have little interest in getting aggressive on stocks. This is why on my podcast with @WilfredFrost on Tuesday I said “hold more cash.” x.com/DanielTNiles/s… Longer-term, I still believe two of the most powerful forces driving the market remain intact 1) AI capex now up ~70% vs ~30% at the start of the year driven by the advent of Agentic AI in early 2026 2) the desire for easy money policies by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh though his hands are seemingly tied at the moment by rising inflation metrics Mid-term elections are also coming up in November and if oil prices are not down by then, historical precedence says the incumbent party is going to suffer significant losses. This is a powerful incentive to resolve the Iran situation sooner rather than later. In summary, in the near-term the risk vs reward for stocks seems poor unlike in late March. My key to when it makes sense to get more aggressive again rests with oil and bond yields given 10 out of the last 12 recession were preceded by a sustained surge in oil prices.

Nailed it. The 'China Shock' completely reshaped the American manufacturing landscape. The biggest miscalculation wasn't just assuming they would adopt Western political values, but assuming the domestic workers displaced by this trade deal would easily transition into high-tech service jobs. The foresight just wasn't there

We let China into the WTO and gave them permanent normal trade relations. They came in as an emerging market — meaning they could protect their own economy with tariffs while selling into ours essentially unfettered. The theory in 1999 was that China would get wealthy, rise peacefully, and gradually become more like the West. We were too arrogant to question it. The Chinese understood us far better than we understood them. So they took our technology, copied our intellectual property, and pegged their currency to ours, which meant when we debased the dollar through deficit spending — the most regressive tax you can put on working people — their export costs came down right alongside ours. They ran 10, 11 percent growth for years. Built a navy. Built a military. And became a global superpower largely on the back of deals we made with good intentions and almost no strategic foresight.

@TaviCosta Incredible chart. It’s worth noting that this compares the absolute top 20 largest mining companies against entire broad S&P 500 sectors. If you isolated the top 20 tech or financial giants, the gap might shrink, but a 31% median for miners is still massive structurally.

Mining companies today are generating the largest profit margins of any sector in the global economy by far. Much of the market remains asleep and still analyzes mining through an outdated framework from decades ago. To be clear: Miners today are producing profit margins nearly double those of tech companies. At current metal prices, this environment is absolute nirvana for well-run mining businesses. tavicosta.substack.com/p/mining-more-…

@KobeissiLetter Wednesday is effectively the entire week. The Fed Minutes will show us how tight the handcuffs really are, and then Nvidia dropped into after-hours will either supercharge the AI momentum or force a macro reality check. Fasten your seatbelts

Key Events This Week: 1. April Pending Home Sales data - Tuesday 2. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday 3. Nvidia, $NVDA, Reports Earnings - Wednesday 4. May Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday 5. May UMich Consumer Sentiment data - Friday 6. May UMich Consumer Expectations data - Friday The biggest earnings event of the quarter has arrived.

@StockMKTNewz Makes perfect sense. Anthropic’s revenue growth curve is screaming for public market liquidity to fund that compute engine. Meanwhile, OpenAI still has to finish untangling its legacy non-profit web into the new PBC structure before Wall Street can price a $1T debut.

Polymarket currently thinks there is a - 66% chance that Anthropic goes public in 2026 - 32% chance that OpenAI goes public in 2026

@Banana3Stocks Textbook fractal playing out perfectly. When MACD flips green on the weekly and RSI finds that exact same liftoff trajectory, the trend is your friend. Just riding the wave.

$SPY The S&P 500 This is only week 7 Some perspective Each candle is one week in this chart Sometimes there’s red ones along the way

Hard to argue with historical seasonality, especially when the macro aligns. The mid-May to September window in election years notoriously tests the market's stomach. If the Fed catches a hot inflation print while yields are stubborn, that 15-20% drawdown playbook triggers fast. Great call out on the historical framework

This is called the mid-election cycle playbook and I have written about it for clients for many weeks now; it takes affect mid-May into September. So it is the exact framework that has occurred in the 17 prior mid-term years. Tom Lee is predicting a seasonality chart that results in an average 35% gain after the pull back ends. The difference NOW is that bulls are absolutely trading like it is 1999, so we are about to be tested in what could be a grind sideways that exhausts both bulls and bears. Either way, I run a live trading room so we will chase, swing & trend trade highest conviction stocks & sector rotation - while providing custom trade support to help clients navigate whatever comes. Wishing you a fabulous trading week and happy Sunday!

Spot on. The transition from pure software/cloud hype to hard physical bottlenecks—power grids, HBM supply, and key shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz—is where the macro risk gets real. The next phase of the AI trade is definitely going to require a much sharper pencil on supply chain logistics than just tracking GPU demand.

The AI buildout is in the early stage. But in this week’s video, I go through why I think we may be entering a different phase of the AI trade in the near term. As we exit one of the strongest quarterly earnings in the last 20 years, the bar going forward has been reset very high. Demand is insatiable but supply cannot keep pace. That makes the largest risk for a sentiment change around bottlenecks and shortages. If the market begins to worry about future production rather than just current demand, that changes the setup. And there are already signs the second derivative of price has started to turn down. That does not kill the bigger theme. But it does raise the risk of more volatility, more selectivity, and a different type of tape than what we have had during the straight up phase. I walk through all of that in this week's video Running Hot into Scarcity: youtu.be/F3VFYNLFcLQ

@MentoviaX Completely agree on that $409-$421 range. It's the ultimate line in the sand right now. If it holds, the cup & handle macro structure stays perfectly intact, but a clean break below $409 risks completely invalidating the breakout momentum. Watching the close closely.

$TSLA this cup & handle b/o is now coming to a critical point.... it MUST hold the 409-421 range to sustain this whole bullish momentum.... MACD dead cross not a good signal, but it's actually good to see RSI consolidating a bit here.... NO significant news from Elon's China visit yet, and I guess market in general is disappointed.... let's see if the SpaceX momentum would save Tesla stock here..... if so, 437 451 463 still possible......

Spot on. People forget that complex tech requires consumer education, not just hype. Most people still think FSD is just a glorified cruise control because Tesla doesn't control the narrative through mainstream advertising. Relying on an X echo chamber won't reach the average car buyer

@Mr_Derivatives Nothing says 'Silicon Valley risk management' quite like a $400k total comp software engineer stuffing 30 protein bars and an ergonomic mouse into a Patagonia backpack during a corporate restructuring $meta

$META The average total compensation over at META is close to $400k. But yes let’s break for the remaining Kombucha drinks and Cliff bars in the snack room like it was Black Friday. hehe.

Everyone is hyper-focused on who has the slickest hardware demo, but Tutor is proving that the real moat is proprietary data collection at scale. Building a 'Large Hadron Collider' for physical reinforcement learning is how you actually train a generalized AI brain for the real world

Meet Sonny. Inside the warehouse that made the sailcloth for the USS Constitution, this vaguely humanoid robot is part of an attempt at reinventing work. forbes.com/sites/johnkoet… (Photo: John Koetsier)

TRUMP ADVISERS FEAR CHINA MAY TARGET TAIWAN IN NEXT 5 YEARS - AXIOS

At its absolute worst drawdown during that entire period (spurred by Medicare Advantage rate headwinds and the Change Healthcare cyberattack), the stock only dropped about 28% from its previous all-time high. A 50% drop would have put UNH under $300, a level it hasn't touched since 2020

This is an example of how irrational Mr. Market gives us life changing investment opportunities from time to time. When Amazon stock crashed 80% during the dot-com bust, Jeff Bezos famously told shareholders to focus on the long-term "weighing machine" over short-term market panic. If you ignored the noise and put $10,000 into AMZN that month, your split-adjusted entry (~$0.40 ) would be worth $6.6 Million today. These massive opportunities always happen from time to time when the market overreacts to temporary headwinds. For instance, we saw this cycle repeat when Meta dropped over 70% in 2022, Google dropped nearly 45% by its early 2023 trough (just shy of 50%), and UnitedHealth plunged over 50% at its lowest point in 2025. When premier companies go on a deep discount due to short-term fear, generational wealth is born. Always zoom out.

@DeFiTracer Choking off advanced node semiconductors would paralyze global AI infrastructure builds overnight. This isn’t a 5-year theoretical risk for the tech sector; markets have to start structural re-hedging and accelerating domestic fab capacity right now

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADVISORS SAY CHINA MAY ATTACK TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT 5 YEARS THEY SAY THE MAIN OUTCOME OF THE CHINA SUMMIT COULD BE A RISING RISK THAT PRESIDENT XI JINPING MAY INVADE TAIWAN SOURCES REPORT THAT THIS INVASION WILL DISRUPT THE SUPPLY OF AI MICROCHIPS TO THE U.S. THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS...

@InTheAssembly Tepper buying $SNDK right out of the gate is a massive endorsement of the post-spinoff pure-play thesis. Now that the NAND and enterprise SSD business is completely decoupled from Western Digital's HDD segment, it’s the cleanest vehicle to play the AI data center storage crunch

Billionaire David Tepper just made a new $179 million bet. Appaloosa Management's latest 13F filing is out. And there's a big new position in Sandisk, $SNDK. Tepper bought in for $179 million. That makes it a 3.0% position in his fund, right out of the gate. This is a significant move from one of the best investors alive. He also added to his positions in $AMZN and $MU. Tepper is known for making concentrated, high-conviction bets when he sees an opportunity. $SNDK is now one of them. Do we share the same opinion on semiconductor stocks? Probably not. Our opinion is closer to Michael Burry’s: the sector is clearly overvalued. When WE make a new move in the market, we will let you know. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss the signal. This is VERY important. A lot of people will wish they had followed us sooner.

Crucial context to add here: Abu Dhabi authorities confirmed the fire was contained to an external electrical generator outside the inner perimeter. Zero impact on radiological safety levels, no injuries, and the Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation reports all units are operating normally.

BREAKING: The UAE says a drone strike has hit the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Abu Dhabi and a fire has broken out.

@TedPillows Text says distribution, chart says accumulation. If we are actually tracing out the accumulation model overlayed here, the 'Spring' means the ultimate liquidity sweep is near, which means the macro bottom is actually right around the corner

$BTC is still in the Wyckoff distribution phase. The bottom isn't in yet.

This isn't a market top call; it’s standard portfolio diversification. The Gates Foundation Trust has massive annual cash disbursement obligations and a hard mandate to completely wind down and distribute all assets by 2045. Relying on a hyper-concentrated tech position to fund predictable liabilities is just bad risk management

If Bill Gates sold 100% of the remainder of his Microsoft shares, do you think it’s because he is selling the top and knows that the biggest economic collapse in history is ahead? This is Bill Gates. Exiting the market. If anyone knows for sure the top is in, he is one of them. But, remember, Its just conspiracy. Zero proof. What do YOU think?

@DefiWimar This isn't an emergency injection. It's routine balance sheet mechanics that happen every week right before the open. Don't mistake standard banking liquidity management for an unprompted Fed pivot

🚨BREAKING 🇺🇸 FED WILL INJECT $6,576,000,000 INTO THE MARKETS TOMORROW AT 9 AM ET, RIGHT BEFORE THE US MARKET OPEN! KEVIN WARSH, THE NEW FED CHAIR, IS URGENTLY INJECTING BILLIONS INTO THE MARKET. THIS IS GIGA BULLISH FOR MARKETS!