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An as-of-yet undetermined part series on skill building, aging, reminiscences, and more, and how this manifested itself in the past year of getting back into golf and working on my game maltliquidity.com/p/my-year-of-g…
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@edgefills
Chess NM. Realize gains in real life. Figuring out where to place Pascal's wager on the roulette table. Malt Vault linked below
Katılım Ağustos 2014
565 Takip Edilen4.1K Takipçiler
The only mistake Brady ever made was not committing hard enough to football over wife
FOX Sports@FOXSports
🐐 @TomBrady to Diggs! 🔥
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I feel like anons could easily mog pitchfork here, the writing talent and cultural Noticing is definitely top tier
Moongazer@joeybeastmarket
I would like to write a longpost articlepost about how deeply this album has impacted me and how strongly I feel it is one of the greatest musical feats ever created and how it defines what it means to be an American. Is that okay?
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@bolkonsky35 I learned this from Europeans over a few months in Barcelona, similar vibes. “Such an American thing to ask”
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@edgefills I did have a very influential professor, an Oxford man, who would mock Americans’ tendency to ask that question so quickly
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One of my socialization “rules” in solo golf rounds is that I’m never the first person to ask someone what they do for work. A tacit understanding that socialization is an after-hours activity goes a long way. (Similarly, in college, I never asked people their major.)
𝔐𝔽𝓩@mean_field_zane
Met a really beautiful math PhD student at a house party last night. My friend and I tried talking to her, she immediately said “I don’t want to talk about AI or math” and fled the party. Why were you there if you didn’t want to talk about anything real, it was a party of econ graduate students lol.
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@bolkonsky35 Oh yes, I don’t think the preemption of work/degree as a topic in OP’s post is in any way normal or beneficial
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@edgefills Fleeing when someone asks you what you do is approximately 20x socially worse than the slightly suboptimal awkward directness of asking someone what they do
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I really don’t understand what the CFTC is doing in this situation
Daniel Wallach@WALLACHLEGAL
BREAKING: A federal class action lawsuit has been filed against Kalshi and its co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara for offering sports-event contracts in violation of the CEA and CFTC Rule 40.11(a)(1); invokes private right of action under CEA § 25 to avoid preemption.
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Yeah the single biggest issue with prediction markets is that as you scale and allocate more, binaries are really bad for risk management. There is already a robust complex hedging mechanism in financial markets, the most likely outcome is sharp bettors just picking off retail liquidity until they get bored/tired of losing and going away.
Trading is a relative valuation game, I think there’s a stable market for replacing polls with political markets. That company is probably barely worth a billion, not 22bb
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@edgefills I guess the main appeal for me is that it lets me make money WHILE I have fun with my hobby XD
But if I wasn't betting on Kalshi, I'd be betting on Manifold instead because I'm in it for the love of the game
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To be clear, I think sportsbooks are terrible businesses that depend on perpetual inflows in a significantly worse manner than stocks do. The relative valuations between private companies and publicly traded sportsbooks, especially bc "predictions" are barely beyond a rounding error, seems heavily out of whack.
Kalshi probably needs 5-10bb to even maintain a market position against Fanduel/Draftkings, and their UI sucks. This isn't even considering all the legal risk they face. Frankly, this all reeks of some marketing angle shoot, private valuations are essentially coordinated press releases
based16z@based16z
Draftkings traded to $24B at the top in 2021 with ~$1.5B revenue so Kalshi is actually trading in like with historicals Unlocking sports betting for 18 year olds is a big edge for Kalshi though - imagine one cigarette brand was legal at 18
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@directioncorrec @based16z All signs point to being ~80% cash by summer as a great position
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@based16z @edgefills there's literally 3 good late stage non consumer AI products that is worth putting money in, to maintain marks VC are going to pump kalshi to like 50B.
I work at the one of the other ones and its so funny how high VCs are willing to pump our val
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Draftkings traded to $24B at the top in 2021 with ~$1.5B revenue so Kalshi is actually trading in like with historicals
Unlocking sports betting for 18 year olds is a big edge for Kalshi though - imagine one cigarette brand was legal at 18
Ven@edgefills
1/25th the revenue of DKNG lol
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@BenShindel Letting sharps pick off bad bettors is not a good growth model, it’s good for the individual. It’s the same reason daily fantasy initially failed
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@BenShindel I could be wrong, of course, but the main appeal of Kalshi is that there are a lot more naive bettors at the moment. As that compresses over time, CAC becomes very expensive
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@BenShindel That’s kind of the issue I see here entirely. These are matured industries and playbooks with a lot of information available as to how they operate. The twitter environment seems very naive here
Ven@edgefills
17% in a month seems like someone knows something re: ER, but I still think DKNG is just not a great long. Gonna take a stab short
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A) DKNG is at 6 BB
B) I don’t need to wager to prove a point, I trade stocks. You could have shorted DKNG on this exact thesis, as I did a year ago — the entire point is that revenue growth is not a simple scalar and the projections are ridiculous given we have many real world examples of the difficulty of scaling books
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The main appeal of this article is that it precisely documents the timeline and the amount of people involved in debating whether some obviously farcical nonsense could be a real scoop. A testament to the gullibility of Americans wanting a story. Fantastic read, 8/10
McKay Coppins@mckaycoppins
Last year, I met a Mexican athlete who told me an incredible story—that he’d been kidnapped in 2023 and forced to compete for his life in a secret tournament of cartels. Once I started reporting, the story only got more surreal. For the May issue: theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/…
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Add on the fact that this is a really easy political target and you get the feeling that it's a complete irl/online mismatch. It's known that a ton of the marketing spend is on Twitter specifically to influence this perception. I don't know a single person from irl penetration that uses Kalshi. The UI is terrible compared to everyone else and "political markets" are <5% of the volume.
This seems very prime to get rugged
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@BenShindel lol there is no chance of the revenue outpacing DKNG.
I think legal risk is heavily underpriced and it's already under way. You simply can't run an illegal sportsbook forever. Polymarket probably has better sustainability rails due to crypto + an offshore orientation
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Judging by how markets move nowadays, and the lack of signal in the "online" method of trading, it seems like gambling culture is increasingly becoming a "logged on" thing. We've had a long enough runtime since 2021 where people can definitively know whether they can do it or not over time. Probably the main story of the last few years of the 2020s will be sports betting going the way of crypto, in that why were so many personalities built around this anyway?
Ven@edgefills
Rather than it being a structural design of the economy, it's a sign of moral degeneration that hyper gambling is the norm, created by decades of easy money policy and winner-take-all backstopped games x.com/edgefills/stat…
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It will be obvious in a couple years that the gambling engagement growth playbook isn't going to hit anywhere near what was projected. Already, publicly traded vehicles have majorly repriced due to conversion to the broader ecosystem not being anywhere near expectations
Ven@edgefills
I am fairly sure NKE is getting rinsed on the NBA, FWIW. The hype just isn’t there, fundamentals are not really what I’m looking at here. NKE/DIS/DKNG is the “sports” basket I watch, and obviously if you’ve read my timeline I am very bearish on the expectancy of the TV deals
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