JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
Let’s be fair for a second here: isn’t Trump only viable option right now to order a second, this time very extensive, attack on Iran to bring it on its knees before it can retaliate?
With stocks at ATH and crude oil nowhere close to ATH, I can see how he might feel there is a market buffer to carry on with this plan and stomach some brief and intense panic confident it can all quickly recover as soon as the US manages to successfully take control of the Strait of Hormuz back, re establish its strong military influence in the region and perhaps even take possession of Iran’s enriched uranium.
If this plan is successful, the market will be flying high into November mid term elections and Trump won’t need any sort of approval from Congress in about a month to formally establish war powers.
This time around, GCC countries will also likely join US military efforts actively to deal with Iran threat once and for all.
What are the odds of success here? No one knows what’s the real state of Iran’s military and willingness to counterattack hard. Its threat of mutual destruction in the region has been so far an effective negotiation tool but putting that into action might be a whole different story because if they end up on the losing side the country might end up like Iraq with what will remain of its deeply damaged whole economy, especially ample oil reserves, effectively under foreign control. However, it should be acknowledged that no military analyst expect Iran to successfully endure the first wave of military strikes and end up in even a stronger position, geopolitically speaking, compared to the period before the 28th of February. This might make Iran confident to engage a second military confrontation to strengthen its gains even further if they remain successful.
One thing is sure: Trump doesn’t have the option to patiently wait for US blockade to be effective and choke Iran’s economy. The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays shut the greater the damages to the global economy, especially US allies like Europe and Japan that don’t have enough SPR to keep shielding their countries for much longer.
While traders still hang on the hope everything can be solved through peace negotiations, it is clear that isn’t possible anymore after the last conditions put forward by Iran are even worse than the initial ones.
It looks like nobody is preparing for a showdown of very uncertain outcome while the truth is the showdown might start in any moment
