Adam Smith

@varuninvesting People keep talking about how much it's down, but the other way of looking at that is how overvalued it once was. It is still trading at 49 fwd p/e so I'm in NO rush to buy this dip. If it corrects back upwards from here, great but what if the market is just finding fair value?

ServiceNow built a real time map of every server, every laptop, every permission inside 85% of the Fortune 500. Every AI agent in the enterprise will have to consult this map before it can do anything. and the stock is down 62% 21 things every $NOW investor should know. Bookmark this THE BUSINESS 1. ServiceNow runs the back office of every big company. IT tickets, HR onboarding, security alerts, legal workflows, finance approvals. ~$13B in annual revenue. 2. 85% of the Fortune 500 are customers. 630 of them pay 5M+ per year, growing 22%. 3. 200B market cap. S&P 100 constituent. THE NUMBERS 4. Q1 2026 subscription revenue: $3.67B, growing 22%. Growth ACCELERATED from 19.5% the prior quarter. The "AI is killing SaaS" narrative is not showing up in the numbers. 5. 16 transactions over $5M in net new ACV in Q1. Up 80% YoY. The biggest customers are not cutting back. They are expanding aggressively. 6. Renewal rate 97% in Q1. Would have been 98% excluding one Federal agency closure. Customers who signed in 2011 are paying ~35x what they started at. 7. Remaining performance obligations: $27.7B, growing 25%. Backlog is roughly twice the annual revenue line. THE MOAT NOBODY TALKS ABOUT 8. The product everyone fixates on is ticket management. That is not the moat. Companies are absolutely switching to Jira for tickets at a fifth of the price. That risk is real. 9. The actual moat has a boring name. CMDB. Configuration Management Database. A real time map of every server, every laptop, every application, every integration, every permission across an entire enterprise's IT infrastructure. ServiceNow has built it for 85% of the Fortune 500. You cannot take that map with you. 10. Pat Casey designed the platform in 2008 as a single instance. Every product (IT, HR, security, AI) runs on the same architecture. 11. AI agents can only automate what they can see. Before an agent resolves a ticket, onboards an employee, or responds to a security alert, it needs the map. THE CEO 12. Bill McDermott. Started at 17 running a deli on Long Island. Eventually moving into EVP at Siebel Systems. Then CEO of SAP. Now ServiceNow. 13. The Siebel detail nobody mentions. Siebel was the ServiceNow of the 2000s. 45% market share. Massive switching costs. Salesforce came along, took the business, and Oracle bought up the scraps six years later. McDermott watched the disruption playbook in real time. From the inside. 14. His annual pay is roughly 3x his entire stake in the business. Not a ton of skin in the game THE $11.6B M&A SPREE 15. Three acquisitions in six months. Moveworks for $2.85B (AI agents). Veza for 1B (identity security). Armis for $7.75B (cybersecurity, the largest acquisition in company history). 16. Armis raised at $6.1B in November 2025. ServiceNow paid $7.75B in December 2025. They saw something the late stage VCs didn't or they paid a premium. 17. The pitch: become the "AI control tower" for the enterprise. Vendor agnostic orchestration of every AI agent that runs in a Fortune 500. Strategically right. THE BUYBACK ILLUSION 18. Q1 free cash flow: $1.66B. Q1 share buybacks: $2.22B. Stock-based compensation: ~13% of revenue annually. The buyback is not a return of capital. It is a defense against dilution. THE RISKS (HONEST) 19. ~150,000 tech workers laid off in 2026. ServiceNow sells per-seat to most of them. When Microsoft cuts 10,000 and Meta cuts 8,000, those are seats that disappear at renewal. Jevons paradox (more workflows offsetting fewer humans) is real but takes years to show up. Mid-market seat compression is happening right now. 20. The market is treating ServiceNow's AI exposure as a risk. The opposite is more likely. Enterprise AI cannot scale without governance, permissions, audit trails, and a real-time map of every system. ServiceNow already does all four for human workflows. THE BOTTOM LINE 21. This is a wonderful business at the high end of fair price. 97% renewal. Accelerating growth. The CMDB is the most underrated asset in enterprise software right now. My full breakdown is on youtube (link in profile) Bonus: Fred Luddy founded ServiceNow in 2003 at age 49...and his reasoning: "I couldn't start a company at 50."

@NotA_Bull Disagree. You could pick 7-8 that massively out perform. Even a couple losses and you're still beating the market.

If you own more than 10 stocks, you're just running your own personal index fund that will NEVER outperform the market. Agree or Disagree?

@WallStreetApes Bro it's a drive thru coffee, we just want something affordable that tastes good. That's why I go elsewhere. There is no "Starbucks experience" lol

Starbucks CEO defends a cup of coffee costing $9 He says the customers needs to just not think about it as a $9 cup of coffee, you’re paying for the “experience” of getting a Starbucks coffee “In some cases a $9 experience does feel like you're splurging, and then what that means is we have to make it worthwhile.” He says Starbucks customers “want to have a special experience and regardless of what your income level is, in some cases, a $9 experience does feel like you're splurging — well, this is a really affordable premium experience” How out of touch could a person possibly be…

Stocks are trading like it's alt season. Absolutely insane.

@StockTrader_Max P/e still 47, I'll wait on this one.

$NOW Is a simple buy, this doesn't need overcomplicating here, the chart is telling us that this is a clear buy 📈 Charts are simple to understand, yet so many people over complicate them and get it wrong by doing so... We have completed the ABC correction IMO, there is 3 clear waves lower and in wave C I can identify 5 waves lower.. ✅ Bullish divergence is now present on the weekly timeframe and $NOW is a great buy here after a -66% decline from its highs 🤝🏼 The CEO recently bought shares at $104 which is +15% above todays price, the company just reported another record quarter and I see no problem buying shares here.. Software is not dead, its just trying to rebrand itself and companies like $NOW will come out the strongest.

@amitisinvesting I'm struggling with this as well, sofi is winning every quarter but getting punished in share price. It seems foolish to sell, but at the same time I see so many other opportunities out there.

Ugly day for two big retail names, $SOFI & $HOOD. Amazing day for the AI Infra plays that continue to crush earnings like $BE $STX $NXP. I think the broader question here, at this stage of the rally from the lows, is do you think there is an opportunity cost at being in a loser and transitioning it for a winner. The loser, if the company is doing well, usually gets the dip buy because the price is a better bargain. This market is rewarding the winner, even if the earnings multiple is massive (like Intel) or there barely are any earnings (like Bloom) as long as the trajectory continues to show that they will keep winning. So, would you sell all your $SOFI to buy a $SNDK or $MU here? I’m not sure many would, but so far fintech and software have continued to dip even with good earnings as the market simply has rotated to companies that keep putting up strong numbers. Just not sure many have the stomach to buy a chart up 3-4x YTD and sell their bags in fundamentally strong companies just to be in the current winning trade.

Following the geo political tailwinds I'm starting to accumulate some Rare Earth stocks and other miners that the govt has shown interest in. So far MP, NB and LAC but I might take on a couple others. Crml and usar look good but have a lot of success baked into current market cap

The Kaspa entity x wallet made another huge purchase and added 6 kas today. We are so back!

Market goes from "AI is everything" to "we don't need AI, chips or the energy to fuel it" real quick.

@unusual_whales Lol, but if Biden cancelled it they would be saying "finally, someone challenges the insane newborn vaccine schedule".

"The Trump administration’s move to drop the long-standing recommendation for newborn hepatitis B vaccination within 24 hours of birth will likely lead to additional infections and millions in added health care costs," per WaPo

@misterrcrypto No bulls are trapped when the market is setting all time highs daily. What world do these people live in?

$SPX volume continues to decline while price keeps rising. This could be a massive bull trap.

@HighYieldHustle Why is the volume so dang high on that? Over 200 mil on Friday alone.

Who has the balls to buy $SOXS here

@MacnBTC PayPal, novo, tex, nrg and basically all of the consumer staples. Got to just look to find the gems.

are there any undervalued stocks left on NASDAQ? everything is trading at 30-50x future earnings lmao

@ariaradnia Isn't that also fomc day? Gonna be crazy!

Half the S&P's market cap decided to report on the same day next week?

@TheCinesthetic Gettysburg

A movie that's in your top 25 list but unlikely to be in anyone else's?

@CinemaTweets1 Unless they get Villeneuve or Nolan, I agree. Kosinski absolutely nailed it.

Joseph Kosinski’s rumored absence from Top Gun 3 concerns me. Maverick is a film I’ll take to the grave, I’ll watch it for the rest of my life. But Maverick isn’t Maverick without Kosinski’s direction. If Kosinski isn’t around for the third run, I question the film’s quality.

@TheStingisBack It's friggin awesome. Critics bashed a lot of Tony Scott movies but I was thoroughly entertained by most all of them!

Honestly had no idea people disliked Man on Fire (released OTD in 2004). I get it: the editing’s frenetic and Tony Scott shoots every scene like it's a car chase, but a 39% RT rating is nuts. It’s one of the most Denzel Denzel movies ever. What am I missing?

Is anyone paying attention to nuclear stocks? SMR and OKLO (among others) are going absolute bonkers.

@Mr_Derivatives Tom Lee's targets never get hit!

$SPX Tom Lee’s near term 7,300 pt is only 2.3% away. It being so close now, I don’t see how it doesn’t get kissed. Then starting mid May, when Jay Pow Wow gets replaced, could begin the 15-20% decline until October that Tom Lee is referring to. Buckle up.

@Kama_Kamilia The first season of silo was so friggin good. I just started s2

If your favourite show is made by Apple, you never have to be worried about it getting cancelled. There could be three people watching and they’d still finish off the story