Eliav Lieblich
21.5K posts
@eliavl
Professor, @TAU_Law Int'l Law. Editor @YearbookofIHL, @just_security. Coeditor @ElgarPublishing Handbook on Leg Theory and War.
🚢🇮🇷🛢️Six U.S. Western allies announced in a joint statement on Thursday their support for a potential coalition to reopen the strait of Hormuz for commercial ships and oil tankers. My report on @axios axios.com/2026/03/19/str…
מותר לאזרחים ישראלים לשאול מה הסיפור עם מערכת ההגנה האווירית הכי הכי הכי בעולם וטילי המצרר, או שגם זה כבר בגדר בגידה?
A brief summary of last night’s events: A. Iran emerged with the upper hand. It demonstrated once again that it will not hesitate to raise the level of escalation to defend its strategic assets — without any retreat on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. This was entirely predictable. B. Yet another indication that this war lacks a coherent, pre-planned strategy. Once the regime did not collapse early on, it is no longer clear what the overarching strategy actually is. C. Trump was aware of the strike, but chose to look the other way once tensions escalated. This reflects an ongoing gap between Washington which may still be interested in preserving a future-facing Iran and Israel, whose approach appears aimed at systematically degrading the country’s entire infrastructure. D. The strike itself seems to have been driven by frustration: Iran is not yielding, and there is a desire to force outcomes (such as opening the Strait of Hormuz) without committing ground forces — and before external pressure brings the campaign to a halt. E. The strategic failure so far leaves Trump facing a difficult choice: escalate dramatically, potentially including boots on the ground, or move to stop the campaign now. F. At this stage, the fundamental questions remain unanswered: What is the ultimate objective? What are the exit ramps? What does success even look like? G. Instead, the conflict is drifting into a war of attrition — with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran. Meanwhile, the president, having committed to the idea that Iran has effectively capitulated, may find it difficult to disengage while facing a visible disadvantage in the maritime arena and no resolution to the nuclear issue. Bottom line, last night’s events underscored just how unstructured this campaign has become — lacking strategic clarity, long-term planning, and a defined end state. At the same time, they exposed growing gaps between Israel and the United States, gaps that may widen further if similar outcomes repeat. And as always..just because something is operationally feasible does not mean it is strategically wise. One more point that must be stated clearly — Iran is not close to capitulating. #IranWar
@UriWolfovitz @Eli_B_Cook הנקודה היא שאם אני חברת תעופה אני מפחד הרבה יותר מרש״ק אחוד. אני לא חושב שיש עולם שבו חברה אומרת ״הייתי טסה אם רק לא היו מצררים״.
בלעדי: אלוף פיקוד מרכז אבי בלוט במכתב הכי חריף שיצא עד כה ובמילים קשות לראשי רשויות, מועצות ומנהיגי ציבור ביו״ש על הפשיעה הלאומנית: ״לצערי, תופעה זו אינה מתקיימת בחלל ריק. היא ניזונה גם מרוח גבית ציבורית. כאן נדרשת הנהגה ציבורית שממשת את תפקידה ומשמיעה קול ברור. 1/5
Told @yne that: A. It makes sense that Jalili would be appointed as the secretaryof the SNSC, because he has already served as secretary of the National Security Council and is the supreme leader’s representative there. B. He is ultra-conservative and holds very extreme positions. His appointment also makes sense because he would win the support of the Revolutionary Guards, since he is truly regarded as one of the biggest hawks in the regime itself. His appointment would not bode well in terms of the ability to reach any kind of agreement with this regime. That is the problem from the outset with what is happening right now. True, the regime is being weakened, but in the end all those figures like Larijani, with whom it was still possible to conduct some kind of moves, are being removed. With Jalili, less so.”l C. This is a dangerous man. He lost to Pezeshkian in the last presidential election, and the fact that he received 13 million votes in the second round only shows how strong the regime’s ideological base is in Iran. That is no small number, when he is offering Iran a very conservative, ideological and religious horizon. If he is chosen, it will be another step toward the regime’s radicalization.” D. It is clear that the Iranian system is becoming significantly more extreme, and the question is what the objective is. If the regime does in fact fall, then it will not matter, because its people will no longer remain in power. But if the regime survives, he said, this would be a highly troubling development for Israel, the Iranian people and the Gulf states. E. These are very extreme people. It will be very difficult to reach any kind of arrangement with them. The Iranian system is becoming much more extreme. That reduces the likelihood of ending the war. It creates a situation in which either the regime collapses or the war continues for a very long time. @Liorbenari1 #IranWar ynetnews.com/article/b1jq1b…
🚨 בכיר ישראלי אמר כי התקיפה על מתקן הגז תואמה בדרג המדיני בין לשכת ראש הממשלה לבין הבית הלבן 🚨 הבכיר הישראלי ציין כי מטרת התקיפה הייתה להעביר מסר לאיראן שלפיו אם תמשיך לשבש את אספקת הנפט דרך מצר הורמוז - ייתכן הסלמה בתקיפת מתקני האנרגיה שלה והחרפה של המשבר הכלכלי במדינה 🚨"זה היה איתות לאיראנים לגבי מה עלול לבוא בהמשך", אמר הבכיר הישראלי
בכיר ישראלי: חיל האוויר תקף את מתקן עיבוד הגז הגדול ביותר באיראן שממוקם בדרום מערב המדינה. התקיפה בוצעה בתיאום עם ארה"ב ובהסכמתה
אז ככה נראה ניצחון לדורות קדימה
