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@emalby

“In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could”

Katılım Haziran 2009
695 Takip Edilen182 Takipçiler
Rams270233
Rams270233@rams27023328420·
@Nysedaytraders @emalby @DonDurrett I mean if the stock goes up or down thats a different story. But having debt is not a bad thing if your company makes enough money. Debt is only bad when it becomes too high, or if you want to sell or merge the company. For example, Intel has almost 50B in debt.
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albe
albe@emalby·
@luxemiaa You paid, fair. One thing I’d say though and don’t take it as a critique. Once you’ll have kids -if you will have one day - this won’t bother you anymore.
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albe
albe@emalby·
@garysavage1 You nailed this one Gary well done
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Gary Savage
Gary Savage@garysavage1·
You don't do yourself any favors listening to analysts call tops in bull markets. That's a recipe for losing a lot of money trying to short. How many people are losing their ass right now because they listened to people calling a top in the stock market? How many are losing on their shorts because the majority of analysts are calling for another leg down in metals? Folks when stocks bottomed the dollar topped (as did oil). Metals are very unlikely to have another leg down while the dollar transitions into the declining phase of its intermediate cycle. This phase has many weeks to run. But this is the "safe" call for most analysts. They will never make a real time bottom call because the trolls will come out and eviscerate them if they are early by even a day or two. So they end up missing the bottom and have to chase. But most people are incapable of chasing into an over bought market so they sit on the sidelines and let a big chunk of the rally pass them by. Miners have already rallied 29% and silver 32%. I suspect most people have been on the sidelines for all of that. I'll say it again. Bull markets make higher highs. That by definition means any long position is a winning trade, even if you bought the exact top of the intermediate cycle. You can chase your tail trying to dodge every dip and wiggle and make nothing off of a bull market, or you can exercise some patience, let the bull do it's thing, and make life changing gains. My physical positions that I haven't touched in 4 years are up many millions of dollars. How many of you can say the same thing about your manic in and out trading?
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albe
albe@emalby·
@TaviCosta What’s the best way to invest in LATAM equities?
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Otavio (Tavi) Costa
Otavio (Tavi) Costa@TaviCosta·
The S&P 500 is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in nearly 150 years. At the same time, it’s trading at one of the richest cyclically adjusted P/E ratios in history. Ask yourself: What’s the actual upside you’re being compensated for at these levels? I’d much rather Invest in LatAm equities. Higher dividends, far more attractive valuations, and, in my view, significantly better underlying growth potential. open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/… H/t to @DailyReckoning
Otavio (Tavi) Costa tweet media
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Gary Savage
Gary Savage@garysavage1·
Remember when the x sphere blasted me when I made the call that Last Sunday night's reversal was the bottom. They said that call wouldn't age well. But today silver has broken the intermediate downtrend line. That is a major confirmation that the bottom is in along with a weekly swing low (which has also confirmed). My call is aging spectacularly. At what point I wonder will the trolls admit I was right.
Gary Savage tweet media
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Trent Telenko
Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko·
This is the end of NATO. Nations which won't (not can't) defend themselves, cannot be defended by others. This is the ultimate lesson of the Vietnam War. America cannot save nations whose elites won't fight for their own interests. 5/
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Trent Telenko
Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko·
War is a question of interests, not legality. Iran with, it's support of the October 7th attack, kicked off an existential war with Israel for the latter to prevent Iran from getting the A-bomb. Israel won't survive as a nation after three Hiroshima class nukes... Iran War🧵 1/
wretchardthecat@wretchardthecat

What I think the media failed to convey in its coverage of the Iran war was the existential urgency felt by both Israeli and Islamic Republic leadership. Many Israelis, though probably not all, have felt since Oct 7 that Iran was literally trying to wipe them out. This was for keeps. Iran for one was not joking. Each month since Oct 7 revealed how vast was the armament Iran had prepared; how realistic was the possibility that the rocket and drone arsenals of the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, combined with their unlimited military manpower coupled with Russian backing could actually destroy Israel. Here was might beyond a major European power. Even now there seems no end to Islamic Republic strength despite 3 years of continuous defeat. No wonder they thought they bombard and attrit the Jews into the sea. But through a reversal of fortune that began in the Russian failure in Ukraine, gained momentum with the collapse of Hezbollah, accelerated with the fall of Assad, reached a crescendo with the disastrous Twelve Day War and resulted the obliteration of its conventional forces in the current war, it is the Islamic Republic that fears for its life. As proof of its desperation the IR has not only attacked the Gulf States, from whom it was not entirely estranged but it has used its ultimate political weapon: it has closed the Straits of Hormuz. There is nothing more in the textbook it can do. Still the alliance came on, relentlessly dismantling the Iranian regimes' armories and foundries literally across the whole vast country. And though there have been trial balloons suggesting a negotiated settlement there is some sense that it's too late for that. One might add perhaps too late since Oct 7; too late since the Twelve Day War. Now the regime in Iran seems set for total war. More of the country is coming under de facto martial law, with recruitment age dropped to 12. Hard liners seek a nuke at all costs to save the regime or as some last act of revenge and by all accounts demand that the US, Israel surrender. The answer is that Ali Fouladvand, head of research at Iran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) the secret nuclear project, was reportedly killed along with members of his family in an airstrike in Borujerd. To truly grasp the stakes of OEF it is important to grasp how desperate and total the stakes are. Although there are rumors of compromise the air is one of no-quarters struggle. Washington may surrender but Tehran and Jerusalem will not. As I wrote earlier the fight is reaching its most dangerous phase. When the Islamic Republic shouted "Death to Israel! Death to America!" they meant it. It's risky to assume the coalition will stop short of toppling the IR, not because the West wouldn't do it, but because it can't. ynetnews.com/article/syc7d3…

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albe
albe@emalby·
@panpalobar Thanks for this. Do you expect an ATH in a relative short time?
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Palobar
Palobar@panpalobar·
#Wheat $ZW_F I would like to see wheat consolidate above last Monday's high (Feb 23).
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albe
albe@emalby·
@realTimHack What’s best miner play in favorable jurisdiction?
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Tim Hack
Tim Hack@realTimHack·
The relative outperformance of rare earths to silver could even be more than double and closer to 3X. If it stretches out longer it could also be 6X better in performance than silver miners. Remember that for Silver all the US has to do is crank up South American output. The companies are there, at least to some extent. For economically viable rare earths the West has basically nothing online. The chinese resistant deposits that can go into production are all in South America, Australia or Africa. IAC is the key word.
Tim Hack tweet media
Tim Hack@realTimHack

If you compare the bottoming process of the silver and rare earth sector you see that rare earth bottomed later but bounced stronger and is just now breaking out of the handle. The headroom is higher. It think Silver Miners have up to 5X potential this year and Rare Earth Miners up to 10X. Rare Earth Miners are the late comers to the commodities party, but late comers are often the loudest.

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Michael Brown
Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
Seems that the margin calls have started to arrive...
Michael Brown tweet media
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albe
albe@emalby·
@realTimHack My basic approach. Higher oil prices, higher inflation, less cuts, stocks down
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Tim Hack
Tim Hack@realTimHack·
@emalby At the first stage of the war it inflates the last leg and then it crashes if it evolves to a world war. But it would also crash without a war. But the war is likely a way to redirect attention from the true cause.
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Tim Hack
Tim Hack@realTimHack·
The stronger the market pushes upwards now, the more likely it is that there will be a global war. The rise in gold, silver, and the stock market is in reality the pricing in of inflation due to enormous arms races and their exponential increase. People can no longer go on vacation because their money is being spent on weapons.
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albe
albe@emalby·
@GiovanniZibordi Jae Street è anche il maggior azionista dell’ETF SLV
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GiovanniZibordi
GiovanniZibordi@GiovanniZibordi·
L'ETF del Bitcoin aveva dei crolli regolari verso le 10 di NY cioè le 17 italiane e improvvisamente rimbalza dell'11% dopo che Jane Street sospende il trading Jane Street è un fondo hedge molto segreto, in cui si era formato Sam Bankman Fried finito all'ergastolo per la mega truffa di cripto di FTX bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=c3b9… Jane Street è ora sospesa in India, Cina e Corea del Sud per sospetta manipolazione e abuso di mercato. È interessante notare che la SEC e la CFTC avevano allentato le normative sulle negoziazioni dei partecipanti autorizzati e sulla trasparenza delle norme sugli ETF proprio mentre i profitti di Jane Street aumentavano a partire dal 2020.
GiovanniZibordi tweet media
GiovanniZibordi@GiovanniZibordi

Sembra che il +10% dsei bitcoin ieri fosse dovuto al fatto che Jane Street è sotto inchiesta ora e ha smesso...... 1) Avere miliardi di dollari dagli investitori 2) Acquista Bitcoin spot a, diciamo, $ 68k 3) Aprire posizioni corte massicce tramite opzioni o derivati 4) Vendere grandi quantità di BTC in pochi minuti con algoritmi, combinati con bassa liquidità o notizie negative per innescare vendite di panico 5) Il prezzo crolla a 62.000 dollari 6) Chiudere posizioni corte per profitti enormi perdendo solo il 5% sul mercato spot 7) Acquista di nuovo Bitcoin spot a $ 62.000, fai vendite allo scoperto e crea FOMO per spingere il prezzo più in alto 8) Apri di nuovo posizioni corte massicce... In India, Jane Street ha ancora 560 milioni di dollari congelati in un conto di deposito a garanzia presso la SEBI e il caso di manipolazione è in corso. Hanno utilizzato lo stesso algoritmo di manipolazione delle 10 del mattino sui mercati indiani e hanno guadagnato 4,23 miliardi di dollari, il che ha portato a un divieto temporaneo da parte della Securities and Exchange Board of India. La loro strategia è semplice

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Rubber toe
Rubber toe@RubberToeFour·
@DrtyFrd33 @markeatsmeat The steel Moka pot options are several Hundred dollars. Unless you trust Chinese steel which I would not, personally. We use full glass pathway and make cowboy coffee in a saucepan then pour into a glass kettle leaving grinds in the saucepan. Interested in the drip one tho.
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albe
albe@emalby·
@GiovanniZibordi Fineco per dirne una sta tracciando perfettamente i tassi US. Non credo c’entri l’AI..
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GiovanniZibordi
GiovanniZibordi@GiovanniZibordi·
tutti gli asset managers come Fineco, Banca Mediolanum, St.James in UK, Azimuti franano dopo che Schwab ieri è andato sotto pesante PAURA DELL'INTELLIGENZA ARTIFICIALE ...timori diffusi nel settore per la disruption causata dall’IA nei servizi di wealth management e brokerage.Una startup di wealth management (Altruist) ha lanciato un nuovo strumento di pianificazione fiscale basato su IA, suscitando preoccupazioni che l’intelligenza artificiale possa automatizzare o commoditizzare i modelli di consulenza tradizionali, riducendo il valore dei player consolidati come Schwab. Questo ha innescato una vendita più ampia sulle azioni di broker e wealth manager statunitensi (ad esempio, anche Raymond James e Stifel sono stati colpiti duramente).Nonostante i recenti forti utili di Schwab, la crescita dei ricavi e le guidance positive. Questo movimento rispecchia la pressione osservata sui gestori patrimoniali italiani: si tratta potenzialmente di una reazione settoriale globale alle minacce poste dall’IA nei servizi di consulenza finanziaria, più che di problemi specifici delle singole società.
GiovanniZibordi tweet media
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albe
albe@emalby·
@preben_sol Divergence clearly did not work out did it?
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prebensana.sol
prebensana.sol@preben_sol·
@emalby You've got more practice to do. Been trading for a very long time and lost a shit ton of money, do some more research and you will understand.
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prebensana.sol
prebensana.sol@preben_sol·
Think $CRV will giga pump sooner or later. You've been warned.
prebensana.sol tweet media
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Palobar
Palobar@panpalobar·
#gold #silver #preciousmetals If we start getting a series of closes above $4940, the scenario I laid out is playing out, in which case the low is in.
Palobar@panpalobar

#gold #preciousmetals We have the following scenarios: a. the FINAL HIGH is in. b. "V" shape recovery / new highs c. consolidation / mild correction / new highs d. prolonged decline / new highs I favor scenario (c). Consolidation between 4500-5200/5250 (cash)* IF gold stays > 4750-4800: very bullish max downside: 4150-4200 *The 5200/5250 level was discussed a few days ago.

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