LSL

My fair, objective, unbiased and completely accurate ranking of Eurovision 2026.

Effect of running order on #Eurovision semi final 2: Good slot: 🇷🇴🇫🇷🇨🇾🇱🇻🇺🇦🇬🇧🇳🇴 Bad slot: 🇦🇿🇨🇿🇦🇹🇦🇺🇲🇹 Clashes at 🇨🇿/🇫🇷, 🇩🇰/🇦🇺, 🇦🇱/🇲🇹

@SirBaloney San Marino and Germany are the worst songs in the semi, which is why Belgium and Poland sound better coming after them.

@enthughesed So you're saying all the worst songs have good slots

Having watched #Eurovision semi final 1 through, here is my vibes-based assessment on effect of the running order: Good slot: 🇵🇹🇮🇹🇪🇪🇮🇱🇧🇪🇵🇱🇷🇸 Bad slot: 🇸🇪🇭🇷🇲🇪🇩🇪🇱🇹🇸🇲 There is a bit of a clash between 🇫🇮/🇲🇪 and🇧🇪/🇱🇹.

@NikosV34 I get what you mean but the song is literally called Choke Me, and the rest of the lyrics are quite explicit as well (even if it is a metaphor, it is an explicit metaphor). 🇷🇸 have a more authentic and intense rock song without offputting lyrics, but are 10x the odds...

@enthughesed My main disagreement is they don't really rely on the sexual aspect of the song. Alexandra herself gave a different meaning to the song on social media unlike those mentioned. It's a good nu metal/alternative rock song with a catchy chorus and a very good first listen

Let's talk about my dark horse of the year 🇷🇴 I've been backing them heavily: -Top10 @ 4.00+ -Best Balkan @ 10+ -Outright Winner @ 160 Will they win? Probably not. But is anyone ruling out a potential Dark Side (🇫🇮'21) / We could be the same (🇹🇷'10) treatment? #Eurovision

@NikosV34 I would say it has less jury appeal than 13 songs in its semi. I also haven't seen evidence that sexual/violent lyrics help PV in recent years, last year saw Milkshake Man, Serving and Ich Komme all underperform in that regard.

@enthughesed I don't think qualification is in question, even if the live performance turns out to be a bit underwhelming. I do agree however that the lyrics and overall message may turn off a lot of jurors (but turn on the PV)

@dean_eurovision In 2014 they were 16th in the odds at the end of March! Netherlands were 27th!

🇦🇹 win not expected in 2014 and 2025 #eurovision

@lukewbm If they change the staging it should be a jury qualifier. It sounds really competent going after San Marino.

This has been kinda growing on me recently but I have no idea how the jury will treat it bc she is vocally exceptional but the song is such a disjointed mess

@marrgarethX Opener is a good slot and shows they like the song, it is an honour to open

Montenegro comeback: SF death slot Moldova comeback: opener Bulgaria comeback: opener Romania comeback: 3rd in the SF at least they gave Luxembourg close the semi-final one time when they returned, before they started giving them the worst running orders possible, too...

@TradingNiel You would expect that but interestingly the early favourite won more times than the final favourite, and the odds were longer early as well. It suggests in general the odds aren't confident enough at this point and the favourite should be shorter.

@enthughesed It also makes sense, closer to the contest more information will become available. We don't know staging yet, streaming numbers, polling numbers, etc. So favorites become bigger favorites usually.

A history of #Eurovision betting favourites. The key takeaway is if you are going to blindly bet on the favourite, do it now! There is no value in betting on the favourite on the day of the final.

@theswedenboo Both of them qualifying is very possible, they're both good songs. Running order isn't that important with 15 songs and juries back.

so we all think it's either 🇦🇱 or 🇲🇹 and there's no way to have them both Q?

@escbetting Maybe this mayhem is caused by big props for 🇩🇰🇦🇺, so they have an ad break between? Crazy decision otherwise

Some #Eurovision running orders are made to clash and contrast, to give every song a chance to shine. Others are made to highlight the stages of moustache growth.

@Eurogamble Just checked and the Q rate of songs before and after Auto Qs which finished top 10 in the final is 4/12. Maybe a coincidence with such a small sample but it shows something, if only producer intention. Bad for 🇬🇪(🇫🇮)🇨🇿🇦🇲.

@enthughesed True, I didn’t expect Serbia to NQ. Cyprus only became unvoteable after rehearsals. In a 15 song semi final, running order has less of an impact plus juries are less likely to be influenced by this as they ranking songs. I think Czech suffers though and potentially Latvia.

🇩🇰 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 in a row. EBU saying we will give u a level playing field to win the semi final. 🇳🇴 going through now imo. 🇱🇻 looks lost in the running order now, only a very high jury score could possibly safe this. Does 🇫🇷 weaken 🇨🇿 ? #Eurovision

@ge_aldrig_upp Why are we giving Norway lifelines when they are on 8 Qs in a row with a mediocre song...

🇦🇿 100% out and I'm starting to not fancy 🇱🇺🇨🇿's chances anymore, unless juries turn out en masse for either. 🇳🇴 is given a pretty nice lifeline and goes back into my "likely" column. 🇺🇦 could very well win the semi for the 2nd year in a row. #eurovision #escita

@SherlockH85 @eurovisionbets The 1st semi is great but I don't like the 2nd half of the 2nd semi at all, 4 men in a row at the end, Norway closing feels a poor choice.

@enthughesed @eurovisionbets If he did it: Master! Love the running order.

My guesstimation for the #Eurovision SFs Running order 1. 🇸🇪 2.🇵🇹 3.🇲🇩 4.🇬🇪 5. 🇬🇷 6. 🇭🇷 7. 🇫🇮 8. 🇵🇱 9. 🇪🇪 10. 🇮🇱 11. 🇷🇸 12. 🇸🇲 13.🇱🇹 14. 🇧🇪 15. 🇲🇪 1.🇦🇲 2. 🇦🇿 3.🇱🇺 4.🇨🇭 5.🇧🇬 6.🇨🇿 7. 🇷🇴 8.🇳🇴 9. 🇱🇻 10. 🇺🇦 11. 🇲🇹 12.🇨🇾 13.🇦🇺 14. 🇦🇱 15. 🇩🇰

I predicted the 1st half almost perfectly, but the 2nd half is where it falls apart. 4 men in a row to close is bizarre, Aidan/Alis are too similar to be next to each other and Norway is such a weak song to end on when Denmark, Australia and Cyprus were right there. What a mess

Serbia closing is an inspired choice, Moldova opening as well. Decent overall. Does not affect Q chances.

@NikosV34 That is a problem but Luxembourg 24 and Cyprus 25 were considered borderline before the RO, and there are no other good options. The likely Qs in the half are Israel, Serbia and Lithuania only.

@enthughesed The problem with Estonia is that SF2 2021 was the last time that a song projected to NQ was given the closing spot (🇩🇰 Fyr og Flamme - "Øve os på hinanden"). Belgium is borderline, seems more likely to me. Hope I'm wrong tho

#Eurovision Semi-Final Running Order prediction SF1 Opening:🇲🇩 Closing:🇧🇪 Would be fun if 🇸🇪 opened and 🇲🇪closed but i don't think EBU wants that SF2 Opening:🇦🇲 Closing:🇩🇰 I don't think 🇨🇾 will close again, even if it’s the “obvious” pick. Expect a late 1st half draw for 🇧🇬

@NikosV34 Yeah it's possible, my view is Estonia is by far the best typical option (although Serbia would be cool and different from usual).

@enthughesed It's just a hot take tbh. Ofc Belgium is not perfect for the "pimp slot" but i can see EBU handing it to them after their last 2 shock NQs. Countries like Montenegro never receive such treatment. Could make a case about 🇷🇸 closing too, but they fall into the same category