Eric Grubman
645 posts

Eric Grubman
@epgrubman
Super Group Holding Co., National Football League, Constellation Energy Group, Goldman Sachs, US Navy, Leadville 100MTB, Triple Bypass Ride
New Jersey, USA Katılım Mart 2012
7 Takip Edilen2.2K Takipçiler

We can no longer say AI hasn’t made a dent in $GOOG search dominance.
It made a dent. ChatGPT now has 6.2% of market share in search, while Google’s share declined from 98% to 92% in a year.
In the next decade, monetization of search as we know it today will be largely irrelevant.
The question is, whether $GOOG will be able to make up for the lost revenue from Cloud and AI applications.
We can assume that Google Cloud will reach AWS’ current run rate in 4 years.
This will value it around $1 trillion and another $1 trillion market cap will come from Youtube and Google services.
If search generates half of the revenue it’s generating today five years later and AI generates quarter of the current search revenue, we will have another $270 billion revenue and another $1 trillion market cap at 4x sales.
$3 trillion valuation in 2030 looks reasonable, promising 7% annual return.
Not good enough in my opinion.

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@EricTheUmpire @DavidNLefkowitz Revisited X after being off it for a while. You had a good entry point!
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@joecarlsonshow I’m not that smart, but I think it might be pretty simple. These AI models “teach and learn” by looking at all the available data and search results on any given topic or question, then formulating an “intelligent” answer. I think the AI models rely on search results.
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@casebradford That was a pretty terrific display by both men. On the intro, I thought it would be completely one-sided. The winner was better. The loser was damn good too.
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@AdamBLiv Read the thread. You now have to put your entire net worth into it.
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$SGHC for those of you who follow the company at all. Some results and some news.
investors.supergroup.com/news/news-deta…
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@AEROBATIX @lippyent I don’t think it’s a lake. I think the movie might be Haws, and if so, then I think it’s off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard with Cape Cod on the horizon.
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@realroseceline Ok, then short the stock and let us know how that decision pays off for you.
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@onlyinbtc So- this is proof of what? That Grok can do simple math? Btw- I own bitcoin. So just asking what the significance of grok answer is.
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@patientinvestor Which one will have the titanic executive compensation?
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I am glad I sold this dumpster fire at $13 in 2022, one of my biggest mistakes!
Now they want to split the 2 companies again😂 which make sense bcs Streaming alone would command a higher multiple, but the TIMING IS WRONG!
their 34B of debt will have to be refinanced and split between the 2 companies! Now rates are much higher and they got downgraded to junk, so the interest will likely go from 4% to 6 or 7%, which destroys shareholders value.
They should've waited!
$WBD

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@oguzerkan I don’t know anything. But here is a guess: ChatGPT and Grok and others are probably executing google searches and other similar searches to gather massive amounts of info before answering. Just speculating…that AI is actually using Google. I’m long Goog. Happily.
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@DividendDude_X Correct. Some investment pro advisor posted on X why it was a great short. Haven’t heard more from him recently.
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People called me crazy when I was buying Google $GOOGL in the $140s, $150s, $160s, and now they wish they were doing the same.
Crazy thing is the stock is still uber cheap trading for just under 20x earnings. Sentiment follows stock price and Google is one of the biggest examples of this it happens over and over again with this name.
I am BIG in the green on my Google shares btw. 🟢

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@KobeissiLetter There is no trade deal. There is an outline of an understanding that will be violated by both sides.
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