Joseph Epstein

My latest for @Newsweek on how Trump should expand the Abraham Accords to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Doing so will help Washington establish a needed foothold in this crucial region. newsweek.com/expand-abraham…

Why China Has a Secret Military Base in Central Asia China's first military base outside its own territory is in Tajikistan — ten miles from the Afghan border. 500 personnel. A helipad. And it's just the beginning. Deadly attacks on Chinese workers are forcing Beijing into a security dilemma it never wanted. New video featuring @EdwardLemon3 and @IdoLevy5. #China #Tajikistan #CentralAsia #Geopolitics #Afghanistan #ChinaMilitary #BorderSecurity #TuranResearchCenter youtu.be/UqmLb6gRP0I

N7 Expert Joseph Epstein (@epsteinjos) for @TheNatlInterest points out that the U.S. can take two ambitious actions to formalize a regional cooperative architecture: ➡️ Forward deploy permanent interceptor systems, coordinated between American, Israeli, and GCC partners. ➡️ Expand the Abraham Accords to include a hard security component, with Saudi Arabia as the regional vanguard. Read more: nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-ea…

The Russia-Iran relationship is the most misunderstood partnership in geopolitics. The word "Turkmanchay" — a 19th-century Russian-imposed treaty — is still used in Persian as slang for humiliation. In 2022, a former Iranian central bank chief used it to describe interest rates Russia tried to impose on grain imports. New video breaks it all down. Featuring Alex Grinberg @Alexg_zza1401 and Nikita Smagin @NikitaSmagin. youtu.be/27bmtqjL_Q4

Three weeks ago, it would have been unthinkable for Al Jazeera to publish an op-ed arguing that the US-Israeli campaign against Iran is working. My latest for @TheNatlInterest on the shift in GCC strategic calculus and the opportunity it presents to Washington. nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-ea…

The Hormuz crisis reveals that Central Asia's energy infrastructure was built for a geopolitical reality that no longer exists. I spoke with @AzattyqRadiosy on what it would take for Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to become real alternative suppliers — and why the window won't stay open. azattyqasia.org/a/33703950.html

The Taliban used to be Pakistan's proxy. Now they are at war. @sid_abu on how former allies became enemies. turancenter.org/analysis/war-w…

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Iranian drones struck Azerbaijani territory. Baku foiled plots to bomb its oil pipeline and Jewish community sites. C-4 was already in the country. Azerbaijan placed its military at full combat readiness. Then it sent humanitarian aid to ethnic Azerbaijanis inside Iran. Why? Our new video breaks it down — from the $5 billion military buildup no one understood, to the IRGC's telegraphed aggression, to the cold logic behind Baku's restraint. Featuring exclusive interviews with @E_Namazov_AZ, @alghabra, @hayeytan, and @HuseynovVasif. youtu.be/oa8RNcRgihQ #Azerbaijan #Iran #IranWar #Nakhchivan #Caucasus #Geopolitics #MiddleCorridor #BTC #Turkey #Israel #IRGC #CaspianSea #EnergyPolitics #MiddleEast #MilitaryStrategy #AzerbaijanIran #TuranResearchCenter

My piece on what Russia stands to gain — and lose — from the war in Iran for @TuranCenter On balance, Russia is not particularly alarmed by what is unfolding in Iran — the developments produce costs and benefits in roughly equal measure. If the Islamic Republic survives while generating sustained regional instability, Moscow could emerge as a net beneficiary: higher oil prices, new pipeline dependency from China and India, and a more pliable Tehran. A significant share of the negative consequences — a potential refugee crisis, regional destabilization — would fall on neighboring countries rather than on Russia directly. The critical conditions are that the conflict does not escalate into a truly large-scale war, does not disrupt Russia’s alternative transit routes through countries like Turkey, and does not produce regime change in Tehran. The latter is particularly important, as almost any government that might replace the Islamic Republic would be far less interested in maintaining such close relations with Moscow. If these conditions are met, Russia may ultimately gain far more than it loses. There is, however, a dimension that cuts deeper than the immediate ledger. Trump’s strikes against Iran are undermining the entire strategy that Russia has been constructing in the Middle East. The situation is becoming highly unpredictable — not in a way that simply reshuffles gains and losses, but in a way that forecloses coherent long-term planning. Moscow may find itself able only to react, improvising responses to events it no longer has any capacity to shape. For Russia, in other words, the consequences of this war may prove far more complex than a transaction of gains against losses. What is at stake is whether Moscow retains any strategic agency at all. turancenter.org/analysis/what-…

In this podcast, Director of the Turan Research Center @epsteinjos joins Author & Columnist @ArunAnandLive to discuss the impact of the Iran war on Central Asia, is china coming into big play? @TuranCenter #IranWar‌ #centralasia #china youtu.be/ZbkDzgssv0k?si…

Russia stands to gain from the Middle Eastern war. It also stands to lose. @NikitaSmagin breaks down the benefits and losses — and asks whether Moscow retains any strategic agency at all. turancenter.org/analysis/what-…

Hormuz is closed. Khamenei is dead. Oil prices jumped 35%. Thousands of kilometers away, Central Asia is already feeling the shock. In our new roundtable with @TUmarov (Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center) and @epsteinjos (Turan Research Center) we examine how the Iran war could reshape Eurasian energy routes and geopolitics. Watch ↓ youtu.be/IikdovefQjc #Iran #CentralAsia #Energy #Geopolitics

I talked to a woman from Tehran in her mid-30s. What she told me: 1. Life is miserable in Tehran; 2. War is worse than they realized; 3. A lot of residential areas are being hit (including her apartment building); 4. "Tell the Americans not to stop until the regime surrenders."

My commentary on the Russian–Iranian relations for @thetimes Russia has decades of investment in Iran’s energy, railway and nuclear sectors to protect and is probably concerned about what government will succeed the current Iranian regime if it is toppled. “Anybody who comes after, instead of the Islamic Republic, almost certainly will be either anti-Russian or less interested in close relations, which Iran only maintains now because it has little choice,” said Smagin, referring to Tehran’s international isolation over its nuclear programme. “For Russia, Iran has been a reliable, almost unique partner that won’t follow western sanctions [on Moscow], while Turkey and China still comply with them to some extent.” The two nations share each other’s ambition to erode western and, in particular, American hegemony on the world stage, and signed an agreement last year for long-term political, economic and security ties. But the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement did not include a mutual defence pact, so the Kremlin is unlikely to provide full-scale military support in the current war, Smagin said. “Right now, Russia’s strategy is to wait and see,” he added. “It is definitely interested in this regime surviving, and if it does it can provide significant weaponry for civil war or unrest, against rebels, but of course there will be no direct intervention. Russia doesn’t want to risk direct confrontation with Israel and the US.” thetimes.com/world/middle-e…

Could Kazakhstan become the next Ukraine? Dugin says sovereign Kazakhstan "cannot exist." Solovyov suggests "special military operations" in Central Asia. 7,600 km of border. Ethnic Russian majorities in the north. Leaked GRU destabilization plans. Featuring exclusive interviews with Kazakhstani analysts @DosymSatpayev and @GazizAbishev. youtu.be/nqf9aYyu6as #Kazakhstan #Russia #Ukraine #CentralAsia #Geopolitics #Putin #Dugin #Solovyov #RussiaUkraineWar #PostSoviet #KazakhstanPolitics #Eurasia #InternationalRelations #SecurityAnalysis #TuranResearchCenter

Very well-produced video @TuranCenter with @BrucePannier on Russia's potential threat to Kazakhstan sovereignty youtu.be/nqf9aYyu6as?si…

US Senator Ted Cruz told Iran International this week that the US-Israel military campaign aims to remove the Islamic Republic from power and diminish Tehran’s ability to “terrorize” or harm its neighbors. “It is not simply enough to degrade part of their arsenal,” Cruz told Eye for Iran podcast, adding that strikes have weakened Iran’s military capabilities and limited its ability to project force abroad. Asked whether victory would mean regime change, he said: “Yeah, I believe this regime needs to be removed from power,” and argued that doing so would serve US national security interests and support Iranians seeking freedom. Watch the latest episode of Eye for Iran on our website: iranintl.com/en iranintl.com/en/202603060327

"The key to any alliance fighting extremist Islam is Muslim countries that can put forward a contrasting and appealing vision," @sethcropsey and @epsteinjos write. wapo.st/3OTmp4a

Told @washingtonpost that Russia sees an authoritarian leader dying in a strike and is unnerved by the transformation of international norms. washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/…