Eric O

Time does the heavy lifting. Bitcoin’s conservative p10 floor rises from ~$61K today to ~$783K in 2036. You do not need perfect timing. You need exposure while the floor compounds underneath you. The market watches price. The signal is the rising floor.

Bitcoin’s Floor Is the real story Bitcoin in 2036: Median path: $1.7M 80% band: $0.79M–$4.43M Current model floor, p10: $61.6K 10-year floor: $800.9K Floor CAGR: ~29.25%/yr Trend CAGR: ~29.46%/yr From $61.6K to $800.9K in 10 years. R^2~99.95%

If $BTC reaches $1.0M by 2034, the biggest risk is not the price you pay. It is not being there at all. Bitcoin has moved across roughly 6 orders of magnitude. The power law explains 96.1% of long-term log-price variance. That does not mean short-term moves are predictable. It means the long-term structure has been remarkably consistent. The math over roughly 8 years: $60K → $1.0M = ~42.1% CAGR $120K → $1.0M = ~30.3% CAGR A 2x worse entry still delivers a world-class return if the thesis is right. Entry price matters. But participation matters more. Timing changes the return. Being there determines whether you get the return at all. Buying too high is not the main risk. Not being there is.

BITCOIN IN 2036: THE FLOOR IS THE STORY Bitcoin’s floor is compounding. Today: BTC: $80,936 Power-law trend: ~$130K Current p10 floor: ~$61K 2036 model output: p10 floor: $783K Median: $1.70M p90 upside: $4.44M From today’s price: Floor case: 9.7x Median case: 21.0x Upside case: 54.8x p10: +25% CAGR Median: +36% CAGR p90: +49% CAGR The key insight: Bitcoin does not need a huge upside forecast for the long-term math to be extraordinary. Even the conservative band compounds hard. The rising floor is the signal.

"It is true and has to be admitted that Jews are behind immigration for White Countries” — Rabbi David Bar-Hayim

Bitcoin: $77K Spot, $793K 10-Year Floor The rising floor is what really matters. 10 Year: Floor: ~$793K (conservative) Trend: ~$1.72M (base case) Ceiling: ~$4.45M (euphoric adoption case) From today’s spot, CAGR: Floor: ~26%/yr (conservative) Trend: ~36%/yr (base case) Ceiling: ~50%/yr (euphoric adoption case) Current price is noise. The floor is structural, R^2~99.5% The trend is the path. R^2~96% The ceiling is adoption. Volatility is what you feel. Again, the rising floor is what matters.

@W__Degeorges Enfin enfin un mec de droite

La juiverie n'est pas compatible avec une France chrétienne ⬇️

Nick Fuentes tells Alex Jones the game plan in 2028 “We have a chance to run a dark horse that’s America First. I’ve seen some interesting people...”👀

yep IBIT options may be the spark, but the deeper Bitcoin setup is convexity. Spot BTC: $77,691 Robust floor: $60,717 Year-5 modeled floor: $258,098 Plain call value: $32,990 Floor-adjusted call value: $267,992 That is an 8.12x uplift. Why? Because Bitcoin’s rising floor compresses the downside while leaving the upside open. Options bring TradFi volume. The floor gives Bitcoin asymmetric value. That is why new ATHs can happen faster than people expect.

@david_eng_mba @BTCtreasuries @dgt10011 This is great

JUST IN: Jeff Park (@dgt10011 ) just said #Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs this year fueled by IBIT options. TradFi markets are bringing in massive volume. 🔥

Expected profit growth in next 5 years: Tesla: +539% Palantir: +326% Carvana: +250% Oracle: +178% Microsoft: +131% Amazon: +124% Uber: +119% AppLovin: +107% Meta: +87% Alphabet: +87% Palo Alto: +86% Spotify: +85% Apple: +77% Netflix: +65% Robinhood: +61% (avg analyst estimates)

Bitcoin is a rising-floor option. • Spot: $78K • Structural floor: $60K • Current downside to floor: $18K = 23.1% • Power-law exponent: 5.7 • Floor reaches $78K in ~0.81 years = ~9.8 months That changes the lattice. In a normal option tree, the lower branch stays exposed. In Bitcoin’s tree, the floor rises: • Year 0 floor: $60.0K • Year 1 floor: $82.7K • Year 2 floor: $111.9K • Year 3 floor: $149.3K • Year 5 floor: $255.1K So the lower tail is not static. It is being lifted by time. That makes BTC more valuable as an option because: • upside stays open • downside compresses • bad outcomes shrink with time At $78K, the downside cushion to floor is only $18K today. If price goes nowhere and the model holds, that cushion disappears in ~10 months. That is the asymmetry: Time does not just pass. Time raises the floor. #Bitcoin $BTC #real-options

Bitcoin at $75,391 is OVERSOLD (Z = -0.55 / -0.81). Every past 365-day period that started from this exact regime (n > 1,000): • Win rate: 94% • Median return: +135% → ~$177K target • Even the worst 10% of outcomes: still ~26% Power Law is the best 1-year model. Highest risk/reward setup in years. #Bitcoin #BTC #PowerLaw

Bitcoin’s 1-Year Asymmetry: 40% Floor, 193% Upside. Downside is the floor. Upside is the power law trend. 1Y: $105K floor (40% CAGR) / $219K trend (193% CAGR) 5Y: $321K floor (34% CAGR) / $649K trend (54% CAGR) 10Y: $854K floor (28% CAGR) / $1.7M trend (37% CAGR) The mistake is not missing the exact target. The mistake is missing the exposure. Bitcoin rewards time in the asset more than precision on the forecast.

Bitcoin’s real North Star is the Power Law floor. As of April 18, 2026: • BTC: $76,178 • Floor (p10): $60,463 • Fair value: $128,570 ~26% above long-term support ~41% below fair value What matters: Floor path from here: • 1 year → $104,917 • 5 years → $321,397 • 10 years → $854,513 Implied CAGR to the floor: • 1 year: +37.7% • 5 year: +33.4% • 10 year: +27.3% The floor does most of the work. You do not need to time it perfectly. You need to own it while the floor keeps rising. Price moves around. The floor does most of the work. #Bitcoin #BTC #PowerLaw

Even the Floor Case Turns $75K Into $853K in 10 Years At $75,073, my leak-free 10-year p10 floor is $853,288. That is the worst honest case: 11.4x 27.5% CAGR

Bitcoin projections.

Bitcoin is volatile, but its floor is not. Spot: $72,222 Trend: $127,898 Floor: $57,358 (10th-percentile support, robust floor) 10-year CAGR: Floor: ~32% Trend: ~32% Time to $1M: Trend: ~7.5 years Floor: ~10.5 years The key point: Bitcoin is volatile, but its floor is not. Both compounding toward $1M at ~32% CAGR.

When Bitcoin Explodes Next (According to Math) w/ @moneyordebt