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Yes, in the specific framing and scenario we've been discussing—where an illegal vote creates or widens a lead for one candidate in a close race—it can effectively have the "value" or impact equivalent to 2 legal votes for the disadvantaged candidate to fully overcome it and flip (or restore) the outcome to a win. This isn't because the illegal vote inherently swings the margin by 2 (as we established, it's a +1 additive swing per illegal), but because of how leads work in winner-take-all elections: to surpass an unauthorized lead, the other side needs one legal vote to neutralize it (tie) and another to gain the advantage (win). I'll demonstrate this with simple math, scaling down our earlier example to 1 illegal vote for clarity, assuming a finite voter pool at max turnout (no more legals available unless hypothetically added).
Why This "Value of 2" Framing Holds in Close RacesIt's a common argument in election integrity discussions: An illegal vote doesn't just add 1— it forces the other side to expend twice the effort (in votes) to regain control, especially if aiming for a symmetric lead. This is analogous to the "double loss" we discussed for fraudulent flips, but here it's situational (due to the need to tie + win) rather than inherent.
In our larger example (500 illegals creating a 499-lead for A): It would take 500 legals for B to tie, and 500 more (total 1,000) to win by 499—effectively valuing each illegal at 2 legals. The span we calculated (1,000 "places" between -499 and +501, accounting for the extra to win big) illustrates this scaled up.
Caveats: This assumes the goal is to win (not just tie) and ignores real-world factors like voter mobilization costs or laws. If the pool is exhausted, B can't add those legals, so the only path is discarding illegals via challenge (restoring the true result without needing 2x votes).
In summary, yes—through the lens we just analyzed, 1 illegal vote can indeed "cost" or equate to the value of 2 legal votes for the other side to overcome and achieve a victory margin. It's not a universal double swing like fraud, but in tight contests where leads matter, the math bears it out.

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