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My post-mortem: Kamala Harris Did Not Try to Win the 2024 Election ethanr.substack.com/p/kamala-harri…

@sarah_micheleg You could have just read the article and learned something.

why the fuck do we need AI in our pizza. give me a break

Jesus Christ @patri

@Domahhhh @ktwebb2 @metzgov Companies can distribute stock in their own companies to employees but campaigns can't distribute prediction market shares to their employees. Absurd.

@ktwebb2 @metzgov Ok you're right, that's very bad. My point still stands on simply betting on yourself to win. Maybe just add disclosure rules.

Kalshi says it caught 3 political candidates trading on their elections, including: - MN-2 Dem primary candidate, fined $539.85 - TX-21 GOP primary candidate, fined $784.20 - VA-SEN Dem primary candidate, fined $6,229.30 They were each suspended from Kalshi for 5 years.

This is kind of funny and weird. So I checked out ChatGPT's new image builder, and gave it the same prompt -- to create a screenshot of an annoying LinkedIn bro's page -- and once again, the AI fabricated someone named "Kai"

@Domahhhh It's not totally crazy though, 100/mi is just an estimate but that also assumes that all of the miles burn the same # of calories which I am convinced is false.

@erosSCS Yeah I am super skeptical of 9200, might be a hallucination. There was some uphill involved, I climbed essentially 50 flights of stairs yesterday. It does know my height/weight (6'1, 178).

After failing 18 months ago, did 100k steps on attempt number 2. Burned 9200 calories?? Lmao. No training other than running a few miles every few days. Multiple friends were amused that I was even considering doing this, with the most common question being some form of "why? lol" Tbh I'm not sure lol. I'd heard about it, and told someone I could/would do it, and then felt compelled to complete it. It was exhausting muscle wise, but not debilitating (widespread exhausting, even my upper body). Cardio obv wasn't hard, never went beyond zone 2. The feet were the killer. A total s-show by the end, each step was some sort of painful. Hot spots and aches galore. I hit a hard wall at like 88k. I was looking at random benches and soft patches of grass with love in my eyes, wanting to stop and sleep on them like a hobo. My day-after walk is akin to an unbalanced toddler. Here's the lesson I learned: nobody should ever do this. If you're thinking, "I could do this", you're maybe right! But why? There's no reason to do it. 60k was very hard, that's a great goal. 80k is extremely hard. 100k is reserved for masochists, extreme try-hards (my bucket I guess), or like ultra-marathon professionals. In attempt #1, I listened to Project Hail Mary and that got turned into a big hit movie. Yesterday, I listened to something called Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone. A little kid-like, but it was very funny and entertaining. High hopes for that one!

@sarah_micheleg No.

@CartoonsHateHer If you live in a rich area it's definitely true that people are getting smaller.

ok yeah I thought it was just me. "Everyone I see is rapidly shrinking." Really, everyone? Everyone you see on the bus? Cashiers at CVS? Or just like, Olivia Wilde and Demi Moore?

@DrewSav Why does it sound nice? What does she bring to the table that "Generic Dem" does not?

Cortez Masto on the ticket in '28 sounds nice and all until you realize A: Dems may not win NV-GOV this year B: If she wins would remove a battle tested incumbent from a highly competitive in a Dem Pres midterm.

@PatrickRuffini With the exception of Kamala Harris this is more or less a name recognition poll.

Dems do consider electability in their primaries a lot more than Republicans do, the problem is that their idea of who is electable is just wrong!

@SpecialPuppy1 It's sad when they go young like that

How?

@WALLACHLEGAL 40.11 conflicts with the actual CEA which merely gives the CFTC the power to ban gaming contracts that it determines are against the public interest. It has not determined that any contracts are against the public interest.

The CFTC's brief vs. Arizona omits any reference to Rule 40.11(a)(1)-- its own regulation (still in effect) which expressly bans event contracts relating to "gaming" or "activity which is illegal under state law." Unwise not to at least address it because AZ most certainly will.

@lxeagle17 The same risk-aversion that led the Dem candidate to refuse to even weigh in on anti-shoplifting measure in her home state (just as an example) is the same risk-aversion that stops them from talking to "problematic" podcasters.

@lxeagle17 Yes, agreed. A lot of people want to have the marketing tactics discussion because they are afraid to say out loud that Dems need to moderate on immigration and trans sports.

More than Hispanics and young voters, it's white women (specifically white, *non-college* women) who are souring on Trump the fastest. But unlike the others, they're not swinging blue. Huge and unique gap between Trump disapproval and Dem vote share. theargumentmag.com/p/women-are-do…

@lxeagle17 But surely you'd agree that the fact that the last Dem candidate was afraid to go on podcasts was a symptom of a larger problem *that includes substance.*

FWIW — and this is a good point — it's not about Hasan. It's about people being convinced that Dems just need to go on podcasts and run hot people to win more. You could sub in Hasan with Joe Rogan and it'd still be useless. Podcasts don't matter. x.com/ettingermentum…

@earlyvotedata @SHAQsballstrap So your view is that "neither side is winning" but it's fine and perfectly logical to find that the US is winning but awful and immoral to find that Iran is winning?

@SHAQsballstrap LOL, most people are confused on who is winning...it's basically a lot of "neither side is winning" To me it's clear, but I understand people's confusion as well.

This is sad and depressing, but not surprising at all.

@lxeagle17 "But if you go on a podcast run by a guy who sometimes sends offensive things, you might offend people, and we can't risk that."

An insane amount of debate lately on whether Dems should go on Hasan/Joe Rogan, make more TikToks, run "hotter candidates" etc. In many ways, it is revealing of what the problem actually is: when nobody wants to change the message, they obsess over who the messenger should be.

@NilesGApol @oh_HOLMES Quite a lot.

@oh_HOLMES @erosSCS And what is a Dem president gonna accomplish with a GOP Senate exactly?

After this November win the GA boy will be ready to take Newsom down in 2028. I said it before and I’ll say it again. He needs to run regardless of whether a Dem is elected Gov here in GA. I’m fine with giving up a Senate seat to take Newsom the hell out 😂.

@oh_HOLMES @NilesGApol Ossoff is also much more likely to actually win the presidency than Newsom is. If you would take the risk on President Vance because you want to keep the Senate seat then your priorities are just wrong.

@erosSCS @NilesGApol You see where I’m coming from lol. The way I see it if Newsom got the nomination and won the Presidency he would only last one term. Ossoff would certainly be smart enough to navigate things and get two terms I think lol.

@NilesGApol @oh_HOLMES If you wouldn't give up a senate seat for the Presidency then you seriously misunderstand where the power is in the US.

@oh_HOLMES Yeah that's a no from me dawg lol, Dems hold both Senate seats in GA and are still *UNDERDOGS* to take the majority. We can't afford to give up a Senate seat anywhere