Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
Over the past few days, a lot of important things have happened. In recent days, my attention has been focused on Lukashenko and the activity within the Russian-Belarusian-Chinese triangle.
For the first time after the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko at Valdai, there was neither a joint press conference, nor substantive statements, nor even the traditional demonstrative photo-op. The meeting lasted two days.
Immediately afterwards, Lukashenko urgently traveled to Beijing, and this visit was organized with unprecedented speed for China, where he was personally received by Xi Jinping.
The visit had not been planned or announced in advance. Therefore, it was urgent and important for both sides.
The Chinese leader emphasized support for Belarus’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. Formally, this is a standard diplomatic formula. But in the current circumstances, it can be read as a signal: Beijing is declaring a protectorate over Belarus and indicating that it has its own interests there. And we know what those interests are - Belarus is a major producer of potash fertilizers, an important logistical hub between Russia and Europe, and part of the overland routes of Chinese trade.
The role of Minsk may be more complex than it appears.
As of now, it looks as though Lukashenko has rejected Putin’s demands to involve Belarus even more deeply in the war with Ukraine and has turned to Beijing for protection.
Time will tell whether these assumptions are correct.
If so, a serious shift in the geopolitical configuration of the region has occurred.
If China takes a more active position regarding Belarus (and Ukraine), I would not rule out that the countries of Central Asia will also listen less to Russia and increasingly turn toward China as the center of their interests.
Meanwhile, after the talks with Lukashenko, Putin made one of the most important statements of recent months. He did not simply reject the Ukrainian proposal for a mutual cessation of long-range strikes. He escalated - declaring the "complete liberation of Donbas and Novorossiya" as his goal. Putin is demonstrating readiness for further escalation and insists that future negotiations must concern not only Ukraine, but the entire system of European security.
Thus, we see that the war is increasingly transcending the framework of a bilateral conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It is becoming a Chinese-Russian tool for reshaping the entire European security system, and its further trajectory depends more and more on Beijing’s strategic calculations.