Esoteric Capital

@sama sorry this is not cool at all. this sucks

cool use case of chatgpt work i heard last night: connect your family calendars and explain your kids' interests. every morning for the drive to school, have it make a podcast that talks about one kid's soccer game that afternoon, one kid's upcoming birthday, some news, etc.

@_sholtodouglas 4 years to get to 72 billion?!

Prediction: SALP will be bigger than Citadel by the end of the decade. Leopold has predicted the last two years better than anyone else - now that he can combine that with very expensive lessons in risk he will be unstoppable. He has my full confidence.

@SahilBloom Sounds like something a complete fucking retard would say

I’m convinced that intelligence is overrated. Intelligent people are more likely to overthink, overplan, and overanalyze. They hide behind motion that doesn't create progress. They fear the judgment of others if they're proven wrong. The truth is that intelligence is abundant. Especially now. AI is making it a commodity. Courage is not. And it can’t be replaced. The people you admire are the ones who had the courage to act. They aren’t more talented than you. They aren’t smarter than you. They just took action when you didn’t. I often wonder how many extraordinary people wasted their entire lives waiting for permission that never came. Permission isn't granted. Permission is taken. You get to tap yourself in whenever you want. You can just do things. Courage beats intelligence. Remember that.

Here is the full letter Leopold sent to his LPs last night. Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

@TheAhmadOsman which would make the fund actually very valuable

The real Situational Awareness is being aware that Opensource AI is winning.

@1000xPod @goodalexander @PalantirTech @PostFiatOrg @AviFelman Honestly. Have you checked in on ANY of Alex's takes from the last 2-4 years? He has been literally wrong about everything lmfao This is a brown nosing, weird af interview. Almost like he paid you to get the attention he rambles about

New episode with @goodalexander and the question Palantir was built to answer: "How do I know I'm killing the right terrorist?" Ex-@PalantirTech, now founder of @PostFiatOrg — he explains to @AviFelman what it actually did, and why it's the reason he's short the stock today. Plus: • How He Read Stocks Through Advertising Data • The Nintendo Trade Nobody's Talking About • Why AI Gets Regulated Like Nukes • The Coming Sovereign Margin Call • Unemployment Starts In Three Months OUT NOW on @YouTube & @Spotify 👇

The last thing you see before becoming fully aware of your situation

Tfw a client asks how you lost billions of dollars

@RandianCapital oooof

lol

LOL

Imagine, for a moment, you are an LP in Situational Awareness. The fund that launched on a pitch that was essentially “AI is the only thing that matters and if you recognize that and wish to be invested in a vehicle that will express that view by getting massively nips to nuts long the most beta to our informed AI views this fine stock market can offer us, then you invest”. And you invested. Not just because you’re bullish on AI, thousands of hedge funds are “bullish on AI”, but because you think Leopold is uniquely situated as being one of/knowing “the few hundred people” who will bring about Machine God before 2030. Then over the next two years, the fund did exactly what it said it would. And it went up. By, like, twenty something times if I’m remembering properly. Again, in this scenario you are the person who read Situational Awareness (the paper) and said “Yes, I agree AI is more powerful than the nuclear bomb and will render the world unrecognizable before the decade is out. And I want my investments into the hedge fund version of that view”. Now those stocks go down, so the fund goes down. Let me ask you - do these LPs seem like the type of people that are going to become bearish on AI because SK Hynix got cut in half in six weeks? The people who likely regard “I’m going long TQQQ” levels of tech bullishness the same way normal people view investing into a muni bond fund? Yeah...I would not expect many of them are calling Mr. Ash Burner to complain right now. Some people don’t realize how insane being up 2200% since inception (in 2024) is. To put that into perspective, if you invested $100M with SALP at inception and wiped out ninety percent in July, your investment would be worth $230M. I think it’s probable the LPs will BTFD. Situational Awareness is going to get the money they’re asking for. And, once it’s in, they’ll take off their (likely short dated) hedges because they’re not at risk of getting liquidated by their prime, meaning the market makers that sold them the hedges will cover their delta hedge on what’s probably quite a lot of notional exposure. And at the same time, they will be deploying that capital into what they think is “the best buying opportunity since April 2025”. I don’t think @leopoldasch is in trouble so much as he’s likely to raise the capital he’s asking for, which would mean it’s more likely now that Leopold causes the bottom than causes AI to continue going down. If there’s something I’m missing that would cause this cohort of LPs who are AI-super-believers that are likely still up significantly on their SALP investment to decide that they would rather not buy the dip, then, sure, every stock even vaguely AI-smelling is probably going to Hades. But…

@jukan05 bottom

Bruh

*LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER'S 'SITUATIONAL AWARENESS' FUND SEEKING ADDITIONAL CAPITAL AFTER AI-STOCK SELLOFF - FINANCIAL TIMES - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS USED LEVERAGE BEFORE DRAWDOWN, LEADING TO SHARP DECLINE IN PORTFOLIO VALUE - IN JULY 24 INVESTOR LETTER, LEOPOLD SAID FUND HAD "NOT BEEN IMMUNE" TO AI SELLOFF - IN INVESTOR LETTER, LEOPOLD SHARED OPTIMISM FOR 2ND HALF OF THE YEAR, CITING ANTHROPIC IPO AS POTENTIAL CATALYST - LEOPOLD ENDED INVESTOR LETTER WITH "P.S. AT TIMES WE CALL OUT OPPORTUNITIES THAT SEEM LIKE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME TO ADD FUNDS, IF YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR ONE."

@alexandr_wang Market has spoken

Great letter from Mark articulating the principles guiding MSL: individual empowerment, invention over automation, and balance of power through broad access rather than concentrated control.

@masuzafi She is a Nazi obviously

Tense moment on Piers Morgan Uncensored : "All you want is all the Palestinians gone... you don't care how many die in the process, do you?" Piers Morgan relentlessly grills Daniella Weiss the ‘Godmother’ of the Israeli settler movement over the deaths of thousands of Palestinian children and the vision for the land. Unfiltered. Uncomfortable. Must-watch. What do you think, straight talk or too far? #PiersMorgan #DaniellaWeiss #Israel #Gaza #Settlers

@bdomenech Would you love him if he drunkenly careened off the road and killed one of your family members?

Can't help it, love this guy.

@dsowens17 One of these comes out every year and girls love it

Interesting article in the New York Times today: "The more fixated we are on mental health, the more sensitive we become to anything that might qualify as a symptom and the more we use clinical language to describe normal emotional experiences like grief, burnout and loneliness. This broadening of what we think counts as a disorder — known as concept creep — encourages us to pathologize ordinary life and see ourselves as mentally unhealthy."

@josh_wills They’ve gone full libtard

wtf did anthropic do to opus 5 this is like gpt 3.5-level stupid

"I NEED HELP BUILDING AN AGENT TO CREATE A WAR" you can't make this up