Ethan Connell

Excited to share some commentary I gave on the US Navy's mine countermeasures program and the LCS for @FT. Check it out!

NEW: Four China Coast Guard vessels entered the restricted waters near Taiwan's Kinmen Island today, the second incursion in the area this week. Taiwan's Coast Guard shadowed the incident throughout, which started this morning and lasted around 2 hours. This is the 14th reported incursion around Kinmen in 2026, and the 17th overall.

Agila Base is slowly becoming a logistics hub for the US military; the movement of US private entities in support of US military mobility and operations within the Indo-Pacific is becoming increasingly clear. US is returning back to the Philippines.

I am still waiting for all my X MCM experts to come back and talk me through this. I was ASSURED we could do this in 3 days with two LCS.

NEW: See this week’s Taiwan Arms Tracker update, covering news relating to arms sales, indigenous production, and defense procurement in Taiwan! Read more on our website, at tsm.schar.gmu.edu/weekly-arms-up…

Mine warfare remains one of the most under-discussed yet potentially decisive dimensions of a cross-Strait conflict scenario. Excited for you all to check out the latest for The Monitor, where I examine Taiwan’s offensive minelaying and mine countermeasures posture:

New from TSM: Taiwan has invested in new minelayers, but its broader mine warfare posture still shows a significant gap between concept and wartime capability, particularly in a contested Taiwan Strait. The latest article in The Monitor by TSM’s Assistant Director @ethandconnell examines Taiwan’s offensive minelaying capacity, aging mine countermeasures fleet, and the operational constraints that could limit both in a cross-Strait conflict. Read it here: tsm.schar.gmu.edu/taiwans-mine-w…

Phelan out, Hung Cao in as SECNAV. Interesting moves at the highest levels of the Navy, as maritime ops are the most important / relevant they've been in recent memory...

PDM REPORT 📝: Based on a post by @RyanHClaffey, elements of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force arrived yesterday to participate in Balikatan 2026. The JMSDF contingent comprises three vessels, currently docked in Subic Bay.

Engineers from Taiwan's 52nd Engineer Group recently completed boat ferry qualification testing, practicing raft assembly, waterborne ferry operations, and command-and-control procedures under simulated combat conditions. The assessment aimed to validate unit proficiency and strengthen wartime emergency response capacity.

Tracks with what we've been seeing re: US capability in the region and ability to operate in a contested environment. Hope I'm wrong, but it could be very difficult to deal with if mines are deployed en masse.

Today, the MND announced six more contract awards to American contractors via the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT). Below is a summary: - "Missile combat reserve replenishment," worth NT$5.32 billion (US$168.98 million), under the Army. - "Integrated air defense services" consulting, worth NT$22.88 million (US$726,375), under the General Staff. - "Anti-armor missiles," worth NT$5.13 billion (US$162.75 million), under the Navy. - "Self-propelled artillery," worth NT$73.89 billion (US$2.35 billion), under the Army. - "Long-range precision strike systems," worth NT$123.50 billion (US$3.92 billion), under the Army. - "Co-production of large-caliber ammunition," worth NT$910.45 million (US$28.91 million), under the Production and Manufacturing Center, Armaments Bureau.

We’ve just updated our Taiwan Affairs Office Statement Repository with six new statements from today's April 22nd press conference. These include the TAO’s latest messaging on cross-Strait issues, including praise for countries adhering to the one-China principle after Lai Ching-te’s reported canceled Eswatini transit, attacks on the DPP for opposing Beijing’s new ten-point package on cross-Strait exchanges, and repeated claims that unification is tied to the interests and well-being of Taiwan’s people, while casting “Taiwan independence” as a source of war, instability, and harm to Taiwan. 👉 View the newly added content here: tsm.schar.gmu.edu/trackers/taiwa… Stay tuned for more updates as additional statements and materials become available!

NEW: Four China Coast Guard vessels entered the restricted waters near Taiwan's Kinmen Island yesterday, the first incursion in the area since 3/23. Taiwan's Coast Guard shadowed the incident throughout, which started yesterday morning and lasted around 2 hours. This is the 13th reported incursion around Kinmen in 2026, and the 16th overall.

Per Liberty Times, the Taiwanese Air Force awarded a support services contract to an American contractor, via the American Institute in Taiwan, worth NT$572.6 million (US$18.2 million) over a span of five years. Details on the services are not provided, but LTN speculated that it could be for sales of F-16 Block 70 fighters and PAC-3 MSE missiles.

🇹🇼NEW: Check out TSM's Weekly Taiwan Security Review covering April 14th to 20th. Each week, TSM Fellow @JaimeOcon1 highlights key developments around Taiwan on our website! In this edition: • Taiwan holds civil defense drills across major cities as part of early Han Kuang computer drills. • A Japanese destroyer transits the Taiwan Strait for the first time in 2026. • PLAN aircraft carrier Liaoning also transits the Taiwan Strait. Read the full report below on our website: tsm.schar.gmu.edu/weekly-securit…

The PLAN aircraft carrier Liaoning (CV-16) transited the Taiwan Strait today. The last publicly recorded transit of the Strait by a PLAN carrier was by the Fujian (CV-18) in December 2025. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced that Taiwanese forces have “monitored the situation and responded.”

China's Eastern Theater Command announced overnight that it will dispatch Vessel Formation 133 (led by CNS Baotou, Hull No. 133) to conduct training in the Western Pacific via the Yokoate Waterway. This follows yesterday's announcement of PLA "joint readiness patrols" in the East China Sea and comes two days after a Japanese destroyer transited the Taiwan Strait.

In addition, the PLA released surveillance footage of the Japanese ship during its transit of the Taiwan Strait. x.com/songs349/statu…

NEW: Several hours ago, China’s Eastern Theater Command announced it had dispatched naval and air forces to conduct “joint readiness patrols” in the East China Sea. This is likely a response to yesterday’s Taiwan Strait transit by the JS Ikazuchi. A possible exercise poster was released by the PLA's Military Bugle Weibo account, though no further details about the exercises have been provided. Updates will follow as more information becomes available.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs had the following to say this morning regarding today's transit of the Taiwan Strait by JS Ikazuchi (DD-107): Global Times reporter: Today, a Japanese Self-Defense Force vessel entered the Taiwan Strait. What is China’s comment on this? Guo Jiakun: The Chinese military has handled the Japanese Self-Defense Force vessel’s transit through the Taiwan Strait in accordance with the law and regulations. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has made erroneous remarks concerning Taiwan, which have already dealt a serious blow to China-Japan relations. Japan’s dispatch of a Self-Defense Force vessel into the Taiwan Strait to flaunt force and engage in deliberate provocation is a mistake piled on top of a mistake, once again exposing the dangerous designs of certain people in Japan to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait and undermine peace and stability there. This move seriously damages the political foundation of China-Japan relations and seriously threatens China’s sovereignty and security. China firmly opposes it and has lodged a strong protest with Japan. The Taiwan issue concerns China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and the political foundation of China-Japan relations; it is a red line that must not be crossed. China once again urges Japan to genuinely reflect on its mistakes, pull back before it is too late, speak and act with caution, and not go farther and farther down the wrong road.