@vonboehmbawerk @bewaterltd @GrantsPub We've given permission for Horizon Kinetics to post it and they will likely do so shortly.
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12.5K posts
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@evan_lorenz
Deputy editor at Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Any opinions or mistakes are my own.
NYC Katılım Mayıs 2014
722 Takip Edilen7.9K Takipçiler
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Wonderful obituary for Murray Stahl of Horizon Kinetics in @GrantsPub. Would you consider making it publicly available outside the paywall at some point so more people can read it? It deserves a wide audience. 🙏 @evan_lorenz
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Stay safe, and for God's sake, make sure you're sitting down before checking what SPY is doing today
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@EllliotttB 100%. Three-and-a-half decades later and I still remember that blasted level.
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What’s the base rate for success on paying 100x sales at a $2 trillion valuation?
Julian Klymochko@JulianKlymochko
At a 30x revenue multiple, at first glance it appears that SpaceX is overpaying for Cursor. However, the deal is wildly accretive for SpaceX, given it is expected to go public at more than 100x revenue. A 70-turn multiple expansion on $2 billion of revenue adds up.
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@TraceyRyniec @Rory_Johnston Some of the rush to get a deal done ASAP might also stem from the War Powers Act. On May 1, Congress has to vote on whether to continue to war or force an abrupt end.
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@Rory_Johnston There is no deal and apparently Vance is only getting on a plane right now. It takes 16 hours to get there. The ceasefire will expire before they are even meeting, let alone getting a deal.
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Possible Trump realizes that a drawn out ceasefire in which Hormuz remains closed only serves to bolster Tehran's leverage in peace deal negotiations.
Or, more likely, this means nothing and he'll absolutely extend it if/when the ceasefire ends before a more comprehensive deal is agreed upon.
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart
*TRUMP SAYS 'HIGHLY UNLIKELY' HE EXTENDS CEASEFIRE WITH IRAN
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@wallstengine Maybe they could ration those credits by charging a higher price to divisions using too many of them. They could call it internal surge pricing.
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> Be Uber
> push Claude Code across engineering
> 11% of real, live backend updates now written by AI
> use AI for rider-driver matching, pricing, features, and bug fixes
> blow through the full-year AI budget just a few months into 2026
> CTO: “Back to the drawing board because the budget I thought I would need is blown away already.”
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@EllliotttB "Honey, it's either divorce or one of us has to start using meth."
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Asking my wife for a divorce so we’re not part of the problem
Trev🙃r is hiring DM me!@whatdotcd
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We’ve gone from 3-D chess to a card game to Risk, specifically the part of the game in which one player loses his temper and throws the board and all the pieces across the room in a fit of rage.
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
President Trump is awake and long-posting. “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz”
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Are they playing chess while we are playing cards at the same table?
The White House@WhiteHouse
"The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards..." - President Donald J. Trump
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(Yes, I do realize it's not a straightforward price cut)
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Would shares be up or down on this if it were already public?
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@evan_lorenz Evan, what are the authoritative sources that you are relying on in order to stay informed on this particular conflict?
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So, we are back to where we were three days ago?
Did something change in the president's mind, did something happen on the ground to change the conditions of the ceasefire, or was he never serious to begin with? Or maybe all three?
How do we form expectations at this point?
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@Rory_Johnston There are many ways to read that, e.g.:
- "4- to 6-week period of volatility" could mean oil moves a lot higher and stays there.
- "50 years of stability in oil markets" could come from the demand destruction and pivot to EVs that consistently high oil prices would generate.
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Silly in many ways, but specifically: given that we're already 4 weeks into the Iran War, it seems as if Slok here is implying that the Trump admin will achieve durable and favourable Iranian regime change between the weekend and two weeks from now?
Feels like a tall order.
Luke Kawa@LJKawa
The view from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok: “Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics.”
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@P_Remarks @Crussian17 @WaterworldCapi1 "they’re often in promo" -- is that the problem with the stock price?
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