Ewuola Bayo O

CHINA’S FIZZLE, INDIA’S SIZZLE AND THE GREAT AMERICAN COMEBACK KID 🇺🇸 CHINA CHINA CHINA — everyone’s favorite boogeyman 👺 This trade war’s hotter than a Sichuan hotpot 🥵 China’s house of cards looming the threat to dump US Treasuries, India’s gunning to steal China’s manufacturing crown (What happened to BRICS” UNITY” lol) and the US is playing 5D chess with stablecoins to lock-in financial dominance around the world. TL;DR - Our dependency on China is a ticking time-bomb for national security, but the panic over China dumping Treasuries? Total nothingburger that’ll hurt C-H-I-N-A much worse than the States. ——————————————————————————— CHINA’S HOUSE OF CARDS AND QE DREAMS 🛖 China’s economy is a hot mess, and they need a weaker dollar to juice their economy. FACTS 💯 Their real estate collapse fueled by the pandemic (25-30% of GDP) has left literal ghost cities —skyscrapers built for 10 million people but they cannot even get 100,000 buyers. Looks like Detroit had a baby with Dubai. Bloomberg (Sept 2023) reported 34 of 50 top developers defaulted, spreading pain throughout their economy akin to their cerveza virus. China is not a consumer society by any means, and has been in a deflationary spiral for the past 6 quarters (weakest since 1960s). To add fuel to their fire, 14.9% of the youth is unemployed. A weaker dollar (DXY down from 114 in 2022 to 98 in 2025) has given China some QE breathing room to stimulate their economy, and also allowed the US export more. Win-win there. However it’s a slippery slope the PBOC has been going down trying to sweep up its economic wreckage and goose the economy. Stimulate too much and they risk tanking the yuan, sparking capital outflows, and deepen their deflation burden. ——————————————————————————— NATIONAL SECURITY SOS: RESHORE OR BUST 🚨 President Trump has rightly acknowledged that America’s reliance on China for tech and industrial goods has become a threat to national security. I break down Luke Gromen's analysis on this here: x.com/JonnieKing/sta… China manufacturers 30% of semiconductors globally, and 80% of antibiotics for the US. Ventilator shortages during the pandemic and our lack of ability to supply Ukraine with proper defense after the Russian invasion has exposed critical vulnerabilities. If China escalates the trade war, we can deny market access which would cripple their economy even further, or go as far as seize their Treasuries, as Biden’s REPO Act authorized against Russia (although we wouldn’t really want to do this again). But the real fix is reshoring. Trump’s cabinet is pushing hard to bring manufacturing home, with India as our sidekick. Relying on a rival for wartime essentials is like handing your enemy the keys to your castle— time to lock that door. ——————————————————————————— CHINA’S US TREASURY FUD 🤏 The fear-mongering crowd screams: “China’s selling Treasuries! It’ll tank the US economy and dethrone the dollar!” Uh, NO. China holds $760.8 billion in USTs (Jan. 2025), part of $1.8-$2.2 trillion in dollar denominated assets within its $3.24 trillion foreign exchange reserves according to reports from February 2025. That’s <3% of the $26 trillion Treasury market—a ripple in the ocean, not a tsunami. Estimates suggest ~50-60% of these non-UST dollar-denominated assets include agency bonds (e.g., Freddie Mac), T-bills, and bank deposits. Over the years it hasn't simply been selling USTs to get out of US markets, rather diversifying its holdings because of higher yields and obscuration. China’s SAFE has publicly stated this, albeit not the exact amount since much of it is managed through third-party custodians like Belgium. If China decides to sell USTs in bulk, buyers like Japan ($1.09 trillion) and domestic players (The Fed, banks, pensions holding ~$16 trillion) will scoop them up faster than a $50 Santa Monica Blvd hooker at 2 a.m. on a Saturday night. In 2015, China sold $180 billion worth of USTs, and US markets barely blinked. Selling USTs doesn’t make much sense at all for them. It risks yuan appreciation, making exports pricier and triggering capital flight (see 2015’s $700 billion crisis). China’s $60.5 trillion debt (300% of GDP) and $500 billion in dollar-denominated corporate debt mean a stronger yuan would crush them like a steamroller on tofu. If you think the US debases its own currency, China’s money printer makes JPow’s look like a Fischer-Price cash register! Their $43 trillion M2 money supply (240% of GDP) grows 2-3x faster than the US’s $21 trillion (77% of GDP), and has depreciated the yuan ~15% against the dollar since 2021. The US dollar rules 88% of global trade (SWIFT, 2022), while China’s yuan, is only 49% of its own trade! No one wants it! ——————————————————————————— A BABY DRAGON IS BORN 🐉 With Uncle Sam’s backing, India is positioning itself to be “the next China”. Picture China 30 years ago pre-WTO. If you’ve watched the recent All-In Podcast, they have been talking up investments in India as if they were a propaganda arm of the government. Maybe they are 🤷‍♂️ America imports 15% of goods from China, but they only take in 7% from us. China’s exports to us are 3%, while we send them <1%. Another way to say this; they’ll run out of bullets in this trade war faster than we will. “Bu-but what about me iPhone if we cut off trade with China”? Production has been shifting to India faster than you can say “Siri, find me a new factory”. In 2024, Apple produced $22 billion worth of iPhones in India, a 60% surge from the previous year, accounting for ~20% of global iPhone output. In March 2025 alone, Apple shipped $2 billion worth to the US from India. Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed India’s growing role, stating, “A majority of iPhones sold in the US will have India as their country of origin by 2026”, citing cost-effective supply chains and tariff advantages (10% vs. China’s 20% exemptions - April 2025). Not to mention Apple’s $500 billion investment over the next four years in US manufacturing, which will create an additional 20k new jobs here. To put it lightly, the egg rolls are fried! ——————————————————————————— HEAR ME ROAR 🦖 India’s manufacturing has been growing 7.5% annually (2015-2023, World Bank) vs. 5.1% with China. Its workforce is a powerhouse: 1.463 billion people (slightly more than China), 50% under 30, with 1.2 million STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) graduates yearly. China does have slightly more STEM grads, 1.5 million, but a rapidly aging population with only 36% under 30, and 15.4% over 65. They also boast the lowest fertility rate in the world, 1 birth / woman. Their “one child policy” has come back to royally bite them in the arse. India’s young population and brilliant minds are on their way to out-hustle China and steal their lunch money. So much for this glorious “Union” between BRICS, eh? No loyalty when it comes to the mighty US dollar son 🤑 ——————————————————————————— STABLECOINS USHER IN THE GOLDEN AGE FOR AMERICA 🪙 Here’s our ace♠️ stablecoin legislation will usher in the golden age of USTs, as Treasury Secretary Bessent originally told us at the White House Crypto Summit. I covered that word by word here: x.com/jonnieking/sta… As previously mentioned, foreigners crave US dollars for trade, and wealth storage (believe it or not). Stablecoins turn USTs into a global ATM— no lines, just 24/7 liquidity for billions around the world. With $26 trillion in Treasuries, a $200 billion Chinese sell-off is pocket change, and access to stablecoins will drive demand through the roof as investors park cash in dollar-backed digital assets. Expected legislation this year cannot come soon enough. CHECKMATE ♟️

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