Ary

@ymsynn Love your work as always Bee 🐝

HIP-4 isn't just a Polymarket competitor. It is also an HIP-3 enhancer. Hyperliquid perps are split between native HL perps and HIP-3 perps. The latter bring perp mechanics to tradfi markets, with their crypto-specific characteristics: these instruments have funding, and can trade over the weekend. A few weeks ago, HIP-4 was announced and deployed to testnet. It allows deployers to create binary contracts with expiration. While the main use case appears to be Polymarket-style prediction markets, these new instruments could also enhance existing ones - and further position Hyperliquid as "The House of all Finance. As an example, let's look at how traders could use them to manage weekend funding risk (disclaimer: there exist more sophisticated ways to do this, like using @boros_fi. This is just a toy exemple of synergies between HIP-3 and HIP-4). The key difference between tradfi instruments and HIP-3 perps is funding. Many traders avoid holding long-term positions through perps precisely because of funding costs. This is especially true over weekends, during which the oracle mechanisms set by deployers like @tradexyz can generate significant funding. To reduce this uncertainty, a trader could protect himself by buying an HIP-4 contract asking: "Will total funding this weekend exceed F%?" If he is long the perp and buys the contract, he covers extreme scenarios. His short counterparty, meanwhile, could sell that exact contract. If funding turns out high, the short loses the binary premium but benefits from the funding received. If funding is low, he pockets the contract profit. This isn't a perfect hedge - it's a variance reduction on weekend funding uncertainty. The trader keeps his directional exposure and reduces his worst-case funding cost, at the price of a premium. Last week, XYZ:CL drew particular attention. There was risk of escalation in the Middle East, and previous weekends had seen extreme moves. A long could have bought "Will total funding exceed 0.2% this weekend?" to mitigate the risk. With $100k notional, covering 0.2% means a needed $200 payout - the market prices this contract at $0.55 (computation made by opus through a linear regression made on historical funding data). On the other side, a short with an identical position could want to lock in some certainty around funding, and is willing to sell that same contract at $0.55. The counterparty exists. Here's a small breakdown of their performance over the weekend: - As overall funding came in well above 0.2% - realised at 0.406% - the protection didn't cover the full cost. But it still benefited the long. - For the short, he would have been better off without the contract, though he still collected net funding on the weekend. January 31 tells the opposite story. Funding went negative that weekend - the short paid instead of receiving. There, the short would have been glad to have bought protection. This kind of instrument is most useful around specific high-uncertainty events, and its value is highly dependent on the price agreed for the contract. There is no doubt that sophisticated players will find many more ways to enhance their perp trading with these tools. And that deployers will propose trading tools including baskets of instruments directly on their frontend.

The "OpenClaw made me $ x,000 from trading prediction markets/crypto" stories were pretty much all affiliate scams. They're getting paid by Kalshi and Polymarket to post about and popularize automated trading via LLM bots. Both companies pay for posts that get a lot of impressions, because they make money off of raw trading volume. They bot tweets, YouTube views, etc. to get content going in the algorithms. Then tons of people are tricked into just downloading OpenClaw, handing it the keys to their wallets and letting it run, 99.99% of the time losing all of their money. There are a handful of VC backed startups that are basically only making money off of these affiliate scams. Not "small VC's with very little following" but the biggest ones in the US. I'm not going to call them out because I do not have the budget, time or interest in fighting with legal, but if you know of the big wigs in the US VC space, especially around crypto, it's not hard to guess. I can't pretend to know how VC money works, because my immediate next question would be "how are you going to make money for the VC's if all of your money is coming from Polymarket/Kalshi affiliate revenue" but my assumption is that you get your initial revenue from affiliate income, then you pivot to infrastructure or something reasonably stable after you get a huge wave of followers from the initial (likely botted) exposure. I have seen at least one OpenClaw startup with VC backing do this. Once you pivot to infrastructure ("run your OpenClaw bot on my VPS infrastructure that's just DigitalOcean with a couple bash scripts") then you're making money off of people deploying OpenClaw bots on your infrastructure, then Kalshi/Polymarket make money off of those people losing all their money trading. The entire grift is wholly based off of ensuring your customers lose every dime. It's pretty shocking, unless you've been following how grifty the space has been for a while. I'm an AI believer. I played around with OpenClaw a lot. I've built my own harness (in Rust, btw) and really believe that there's a bright future for agents. There is so much grift in the space right now that has to get shaken out for that to happen, though. Unfortunately, it's going to victimize a lot of early users first.

@kurushdubash @primo_data @shayne_coplan Not really that hot. Some of the top 10 blockchain L1s / L2s produce less than 1k in revenue each day. Pathetic honestly.

@primo_data @shayne_coplan Hot take, majority of web3 apps have been vaporware Polymarket is one of the most successful applications of blockchain tech

Polymarket does ~5m txns/day Kinda wild that is more than many L1s

@BlinkOnChain Man at this point I'm just relieved;)

This week the terminal public live beta releases next, the vaults. $BETTER DAYS AHEAD

@tradebetterapp Infinite alpha on a silver platter. A new way to trade. $BETTER , if you will.

> ENDLESS ALPHA SIGNALS > TWO CLICK EXECUTION > TRADE ON $BETTER TERMINAL WITH REAL EDGE Terminal public live beta releasing this week for $BETTER holders.

Polymarket pays accounts with @zscdao and @kreoapp in bio or badge on a batched X post basis to get you hyped to vibe code a slop bot with AI to donate liquidity to thin markets and be farmed for slippage aka trading fees. You will lose money. Do not trust their "mathematical" articles. Also no quant invests in design banners that are so fancy. Do not feed the machine.

@CryptoHass @Guud_Vibez @mediumtension Night and day difference versus us putting it all on the line to safely migrate the $BETTER token. Firmly believe that tokens should only be treated as digital equity and valued accordingly, else incentives are always in the favour of the "deployer". Sucks to hear man.

@Guud_Vibez @mediumtension Massive betrayal. He’s got a lotta people looking for him from what I hear though 👀

Just when you thought you’ve seen it all in crypto. SBF, you’ll have company soon. @mediumtension coming your way $XMW rugged us all. More to come

> REDEPLOYED TO NEW CA: > 0x396FfAd9469e3d3E3fc4061B79accE2Ad0Ce4B9E Full Announcement on TG: t.me/tradebettercom…

*insert trad-fi/defi market of choice* - enter prediction markets - not perfect, but near zero Brier scores don't lie - era of truth is upon us, if you couldn't tell

@derpettte LFGGGG

I just keep winning on Polymarket thanks to Better. All I do is look for the asymmetrical bets on the hour markets, look at the momentum 10 mins out and then trade with 2 clicks. Will begin sizing in once public beta opens later today. Trade with the best (without them knowing). Link in comments.

@degenscotty @tradebetterapp Future has never looked $BETTER 💅🏾

get ready to start trading $BETTER public beta launch soon 😈 @tradebetterapp

@natjin Yeah, how's the latency to actually capture the arb going? :) $BETTER options exist. @tradebetterapp

quants are cooked just one-shotted arb prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel) often price the same event differently. buy both sides across platforms and you lock in guaranteed profit regardless of outcome this scans all of them in real-time and surfaces the gaps free internet alpha. yw perplexity.ai/computer/a/arb…

@0xstorm @iamfakeguru @FactoryAI allows me to stay on the robot overlords good terms without hurling insults (don't wanna go out like Arnie)

@iamfakeguru "you stupid motherfucker. is that really the right fix or are you cutting corners again? what would you do if you actually wanted this to be good?"

@siebensechser @mellicrypto @Polymarket @tradebetterapp Here you go: docs.tradebetter.app/token/tokenomi…

@mellicrypto @Polymarket @tradebetterapp Where can I find official docs that 100000 $BETTER is required for the vaults? Did not find that in the docs.

God bless manual @Polymarket traders What u see here @tradebetterapp is executing in 0.6 mili seconds ⚡️⚡️ Grab at least 100000 $BETTER for the Vaults. $SERV $BETTER

@Boingo_Bongo @tradebetterapp So it begins

One of my first trades +153.8% ROI $10 -> $25 No intense research, no grueling hours, just a few clicks This is $BETTER

@tradebetterapp Prediction markets are literally not correlated via volume or activity to macro

> MARKTS CRASH, YOUR VAULT DOESN'T CARE, IT KEEPS PRINTING > DECOUPLE FROM MARKET MAKERS AND MACRO TRENDS WITH $BETTER

@kurushdubash @carbonicburn Standin' on bi'niss

@carbonicburn No investor lost any funds.

Their seed investors lost money at that price... Dome is not a success story