Xiang Fang

Such great resources for studies on capital control and related policies

Happy Friday / TGIF! 🎉 Reminder to submit your research for the #CEBRA26 Annual Meeting — deadline: 2 March ⏰ 📌#CFP Session 3 highlight: “Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets” Organized by @Banxico Committee: Santiago Bazdresch, @acebreroz 👉 Submit here: cebra-events.org/submitter-dash… Have a great weekend! 📄 #CEBRA #CallForPapers #MonetaryPolicy #EmergingMarkets #AcademicTwitter #EconomicsResearch #TGIF

I've always found seminar preparation to be one of the trickiest parts of academic research. Inspired by @ben_golub and @alexolegimas, I vibe coded Dry Run -- a tool to practice presentations with an AI-powered audience that interrupts you in real-time.

If you want to learn more about Machine Learning for Computational Economics, I’m teaching a course on the topic, building on my RFS work. 📘 Lecture notes + Julia implementations: 👉 dejanirsilva.github.io/mlce/

Highly recommended! "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data" by Tamar den Besten and Diego R. Känzig. "We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-WWII, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime." dkaenzig.github.io/diegokaenzig.c…

Cannot wait

Food for thought! "Dollarization Waves: New Evidence from a Comprehensive International Bond Database" by Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Eswar Prasad, Előd Takáts, and Judit Temesvar. "We investigate how the U.S. dollar’s prominence in the denomination of international debt securities has evolved in recent decades, using a comprehensive global dataset with far more extensive coverage than datasets used in prior literature. We find no monotonic dollarization or de-dollarization trend; instead, the dollar’s share exhibits a wavelike pattern. We document three dollarization waves since the 1960s. The last wave, following the global financial crisis, lifted the dollar’s share nearly back to its level at the euro’s launch in 2000." federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/f…

@andresfernanm It's a great pleasure to host you and learn from your insightful work! Look forward to the paper and data release.

Many thanks to Wataru Miyamoto and @HKUEcon for the invitation and warm hospitality. It was a real pleasure to present our forthcoming work on capital flow restrictions and AI, and engage in thoughtful discussions. Excellent questions and very valuable feedback, much appreciated.

A New Public Data Source: Call Reports from 1959 to 2025 libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/12/a-new-… This is incredibly valuable public good. Everyone who works with call reports should agree with me...

Super interesting! "Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege" by Wenxin Du, Ritt Keerati, and Jesse Schreger. "We document a strong decoupling between the convenience yield on the US Dollar and US Treasuries. We measure the convenience of the U.S. dollar using covered interest parity (CIP) deviations between risk-free bank rates, such as secured overnight rates since the benchmark reform. In parallel, we measure the convenience of U.S. Treasury bonds through CIP deviations between government bond yields. We find a pronounced divergence between the two convenience measures in recent years: while the U.S. dollar exhibits strong convenience post-Global Financial Crisis, the U.S. Treasury convenience has not only declined substantially but has turned negative, most strongly so at medium- to long-term maturities. We argue that the relative supply of government bonds between the US and other developed markets is a key driver of the U.S. Treasury convenience compared to other government bonds." imf.org/en/News/Semina…

Great public good!

Great initiative! For macro/finance/international topics, we’ve assembled a number of links to different datasets (as well as code and other resources) here: sites.google.com/view/interconn… The NBER IFM data page is another great resource.

My pick for Monday Econ Nobel. International macro. Calvo, Obstfeld Rogoff. One can dream.

We welcomed 37 PhD students from 22 universities to the 2025 Big-Data Initiative in International Macro-Finance this month. This was the 5️⃣th iteration of an event that is designed to lower barriers to entry to large-scale, data-driven research in the field. All materials are available on the event website: globalcapitalallocation.com/bdi-cover-page.

A short essay on offshore RMB stablecoin dvelopment in FT Chinese.

Starting Sept 2025: CEPR & @sffed launch a monthly Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics. Focus: central bank goals, policy design, transmission, & international dimensions. 🗓 First session: 4 Sept | 5PM CET Details 👉 cepr.org/events/event-s… Organisers: @michaelbauer_hh @sffed, @RefetGurkaynak @BilkentEconDept, @KlodianaIstrefi @banquedefrance, @mcmahonecon @OxfordEconDept @UniofOxford

In honor of Stan Fischer, his classic "Lectures on Macroeconomics" with @ojblanchard1 deserves a re-read

Website for the "Global Currencies Database" now includes an "In the Media" tab: globalcurrenciesdatabase.com/in-the-media/

Borrowing long-term in local currency is not a panacea for EM fragility!

Extracting information from a dataset of 3 million documents issued by Chinese central, provincial, and municipal administrations to assess China's industrial policies over the period 2000 to 2022, from @HanmingF, Ming Li, and Guangli Lu nber.org/papers/w33814