Felipe lima
9.7K posts
@felipelima108
Pai, CGA/CGE/CFG, trabalhando com consultoria de investimentos, economista - nessa ordem de importância... ph menor que 7.
Sim! Mas o mais interessante é que a empresa, as is, já gera caixa em bom volume, dá lucro em bom volume. Estimo que ela consiga adicionar cerca de 1.5 vpa por trimestre. Papel a 18. Essa conta é bizarra! @Decio_Oddone e equipe fazendo um trabalho lindo. #brav3
President Trump: “We’re very close to a deal with Iran.”
@HarmlessYardDog Japan, one of the other major OECD oil inventory hubs, STOPPED posting its data in fear of freaking out the domestic market. Fujairah, pronounced as fu-jai-rah, is a major product hub. This is about to hit tank bottom in 2 weeks.
They are probably discussing banning petroleum product exports.
President Trump told me today he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire. He doesn't think it will be necessary. "I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead," he said. "I really do." I asked if the war ends with a deal, or "do you just say, look, we knocked out their capability and that’s it?" TRUMP: "It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild. They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals. They’re gone, no longer with us." And he made this extraordinary claim: "If I weren’t president, the world would be torn to pieces."
Oil will fall below $90 and stay there ( 80-90). But we’re not going back to $65, which will delay rate cuts across the West, especially in Europe and the UK, and to a lesser extent the Fed.
What is the North Sea physic mkt, and how should the gap between the paper and physical markets be resolved? Every time I post about the physical market, I see a lot of complaints about why oil prices aren't rising further. Many ppl even criticize me, claiming I’m not explaining things properly. First, I’ll summarize the basic components of the North Sea market. ICE Brent Futures: A financially settled paper contract used primarily for broad directional hedging and speculation without the intention of physical delivery. EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physical): A swap that acts as a bridge, allowing a trader to convert a paper futures position into a physical cargo contract. Forward Brent: A standardized OTC physical swap for future delivery. It represents actual oil but remains non-dated bc the exact loading schedule is not yet determined. Dated Brent: The global benchmark price for physical crude. It is assessed daily by agencies like Platts based on actual trades of the most competitive grade within the BFOET+WTI basket, triggered once specific loading dates are confirmed (typically 10-30 days prior). CFD: A short-term swap representing the price difference between Forward Brent and Dated Brent. It is used to plot the physical forward curve and assess whether the market is in contango or backwardation. DFL (Dated to Frontline): A swap that links the physical Dated Brent assessment directly to the front-month ICE Futures contract, managing exposure between the physical and financial markets. Diff (Grade Basis): The premium or discount applied to a specific physical cargo relative to the Dated Brent benchmark. Driven by crude quality, logistics, and refinery demand, this unhedgeable spread is where physical traders generate profit. This alone should be enough. From there, I’ll explain how the gap between the paper market and the physical market actually closes. A massive divergence between Dated Brent (physic) and ICE Brent futures (paper) typically indicates acute near-term physical tightness relative to forward expectations. If Dated Brent remains at $120-130/bbl leading into the expiration of the front-month ICE Brent futures contract (currently around $100/bbl), the futures contract must converge toward the physical price. The convergence is not optional; it is mathematically enforced by the exchange's settlement rules and market arbitrage. This operates through three primary mechanisms: 1) Cash Settlement via the ICE Brent Index ICE Brent futures are cash-settled upon expiration and do not involve physical delivery. Expiring contracts are settled against the ICE Brent Index. The Index is a calculated average of trading activity in the relevant physical Forward BFOET(Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll)+WTI Midland market during the final trading days of the futures contract. Bc Forward Brent and Dated Brent are intrinsically linked, a physical market sustaining $130 will generate an ICE Brent Index near $130. Consequently, any futures positions left open at expiration are forcibly settled at this higher Index price. 2) The Arbitrage Channel (EFP Mechanism) If a $30 spread exists between paper and physical markets, traders will immediately exploit the arbitrage using the EFP mechanism. Traders buy the undervalued ICE Brent futures at $100 and simultaneously sells a physical Forward Brent cargo at $130. They execute an EFP to swap their long paper futures position into a long physical Forward position. The newly acquired long physical position cancels out their short physical position, locking in a profit (minus the EFP swap cost). To execute this arbs on a large scale, traders must aggressively buy ICE futures. This massive purchasing volume forces the futures price up until the gap closes and the arb window is eliminated. 3) Forced Short Covering Market participants holding short positions in the ICE Brent futures market face extreme risk if the physical market disconnects to the upside. Knowing the contract is destined to cash-settle against a $130 physical Index, paper shorts cannot afford to hold their $100 positions into expiration. They are forced to buy back their futures contracts to close their positions before the expiry date. This forced buying—often resulting in a short squeeze—accelerates the upward momentum of the ICE futures price, driving it into alignment with the physical market. Through the combination of final index settlement and active EFP arbs, the paper market is structurally tethered to physical reality as expiration approaches. #oott #iran
*US TO HOST ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS TUESDAY: STATE DEPT OFFICIAL
