Fernando Guerrero Puchol

Good morning, or good afternoon to those already on that side of the world.🌞🌑 Part II of the thesis goes live today. Available at 18:30 CEST / 12:30 PM EDT. Have a great rest of the day. ☕️

fuck it we ball

Some friends and I just did this. Aimed for young developers that are starting to learn about traditional programming (no ia). Text me if you want it. youtu.be/bUabJots--M?is…

1: It was an absolute pleasure having you all there and thank you for the kind words. What started as an undergraduate national stock competition has truly turned into an international one! 2: You really shouldn't post pictures of me with my shirt off.

@AltaFoxCapital Had to bring some European energy to Texas!

Read it here👉 open.substack.com/pub/huntingbag…

Just uploaded Part 1 of one of the most interesting companies we've come across in a long time, and we think you'll enjoy this one. A British C-UAS company trading at <8x EV/EBIT. Divesting non-core assets. Management fully aligned. Catalysts approaching. It took a few late nights and a flight. Hope it's worth your time. Check it out ⬇️

Sole-source supplier to the US Navy. 40+ navies. Canadian destroyer programme (15 ships). Counter-drone systems operational in Ukraine. Trades at <8x EV/EBIT. >40% ROIC. £35m net cash. No debt. Zero analyst coverage. 60% discount to closest peers. CEO buying shares in the open market. Repeatedly. Part 1 of the deep dive is now live on Substack. 👇👇 open.substack.com/pub/huntingbag…

@gaxrav Peak life.

quit brainrot. unfollow trolls. read essays. go down rabbit holes. have a calendar. maintain a todo list. read old books. watch old movies. turn on dnd. walk with intent. eat without youtube. chew more. train without music. plan for 15 mins. execute. organise your desk. take something seriously. read ancient scripts. act fast. find bread. eat clean. journal. save a life. learn to code. read poetry. create art. stay composed. refine your speech. optimise for efficiency. act sincere. help people. be kind. stop doing things that waste your time. follow your intuition. craft reputation. learn persuasion. systemise your day (or don’t). write. write. write. write more. iterate violently. leave your phone at home. walk to the grocery store. talk to strangers. feed the dogs. visit bookstores. look for 1800s novels. experience art. then love. sit with a monk and offer them lunch. don't talk shit about people. embody virtue. sit alone. do something with your life. what do you want to create? turn off your mind. play. play a sport. combat sports. notice fonts in trees. fall in love. notice patterns on a table. visualise it. talk to people with respect. don't hate. be loving. be real. become yourself. cherrypick your qualities. discard the useless. rejections aren't permanent. invite what aligns. accept what does not. read great people. be different. choose different. do great work. let it consume you. lose your mind. value your time. experience life.

AI won't kill fundamental investing because more information doesn't kill alpha. We have decades of priors here (Excel, Bloomberg, alt data...all democratized analysis & information gathering, and didn't kill alpha). As measured by factor volatility, stocks are less efficient and more alpha-rich than ever (and empirically, the ability of multi-eight figure market neutral multi-managers to consistently grind out 10-15% returns in an idio-maximized way proves this point...15 years ago a $10bn hedge fund was considered to be impossibly large). Innovations in investment process have shifted alpha pools, for sure, and systematic investors have arbitraged many old, reliable fundamental alpha pools. But as the players at the poker table have shifted, the constraints of those new players have created new alpha pools. Long duration fundamental investing has been gutted, and definitionally competing against a group of non-fundamental (quants, factor/thematic investors, indexers) and duration-constrained (multi's) investors should be a huge competitive advantage, long term (however frustrating in the near term). To wit, a 9-month thesis where I "look through" the next two prints is now considered a long-term thesis. Rigorous investment process serves investment judgment, but the real alpha generation fits a power-law distribution and there is some ineffable "nose for money" that the great investors have, that cannot be trained necessarily. Investing is a very hard game, that cannot be distilled to a reinforcement learning sandbox (by the time it is, the regime will have shifted and new drivers move stocks). AI has no sense of materiality, no true discernment, and the lack of context of N of 1 situations (if you haven't noticed, we are living in an N of 1 world!). There is a irreducible element of humanness that is critical to success in fundamental investing, and that won't change. What does this all mean? In my opinion, there is no better time to be starting a careers as an investor. My first year on the desk, I spent a lot of time doing grunt work: updating Nielsen files, updating models for my PM, creating same store sales master files, building question lists for CEO meetings, etc. This is grunt work. I can automate this all now, and get more quickly to the deep, value added parts of learning the investment process. Will AI drive alpha? This is a debate people are having, which I find sort of silly. When used correctly, by the right investor, of course it will. Ask any great investor if they had another 4 hours of research time per day whether the quality of their research would improve? That's kind of a dumb question...of course it will. Compressing the mechanical part of your job to focus more on the artisanal part of the job is Step 1, and with agentic systems accelerating fast is now in the strike zone of possibility. This is before we start to layer in a broader monitoring net and use cases to go deeper and build more rigor, finding signals in unstructured data that were missed before, as well as turning your investment genius into a co-pilot pattern recognition system. The future is very bright for fundamental investing, in my opinion.