Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)

While social media is polarising, evidence suggests AI may nudge people towards the centre. This holds true of all studied models. Grok is more right-leaning than other models, but also has depolarising effects. By @jburnmurdoch.

The reason YouGov are lower than others is everything to do with differences in sample & turnout estimates and nothing to do with how they ask the question. Having some pollsters outside the pack fine and healthy. You can’t complain about herding & then endorse this rubbish.

A headline in this morning’s Times is inaccurate and they have issued this correction: “YouGov is not making changes to its methodology or to any previously published results. We are happy to make this clear.” YouGov is not changing our methodology or results, which accurately predicted the Reform vote at the 2024 general election. thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…

stop spending money on Claude Code. Chipotle's support bot is free:

@SteveAkehurst @josephalextodd @38degrees Given Scotland isn't included here, 9000 is a fine sample size. Though, you're right to be cautious about the small sample per seat, in that MRPs struggle to pick up on full extent of constituency level effects like a particularly popular insurgent independent candidate e.g

@SteveAkehurst @josephalextodd @38degrees Hey @josephalextodd, yes we used an MRP model to make these predictions. This learns how demographics predict voting from a survey dataset, then applies those predictions to each constituency based on census data for each constituency and characteristics of the seat.

NEW: After the Gorton by-election, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left? Big new @Persuasion_UK report out with @38degrees on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems. Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵

If you want to chat to us about a project, have us come and talk to your team, or you have nothing specific in mind and just fancy a coffee on us, get in touch via our website or drop me a message. convergent-opinion.com

At Convergent's core are two people who think polling can do a lot more than it usually does — and want to help organisations, political, social, and otherwise, get the insight they need to make better decisions.

So proud to have worked with @SteveAkehurst of @Persuasion_UK, and @38degrees on this deep dive into Labour's progressive defectors. This is also the first public-facing work from Convergent, a new agency where I'm a co-founder.

Don't let Obama play the Iran card in order to start a war in order to get elected--be careful Republicans!

To force the Government to act, sign and share our petition 👇 lookingforgrowth.uk/releasethereco…

Students & parents should know the facts before they take out the debt. But the truth about graduate earnings has been hidden for years. Government has records tracking graduate earnings, but they refuse to publish them in full. It's time for the truth. Release the records.

@Seanchuckle That’s not our central pitch.

My favorite genre is still ChatGPT not believing current political developments when I ask it for a copy edit.

This PoliticsUk twitter account is just a way for its ex-Tory MP co-owner Ben Howlett to line his pockets from whoever pays him enough money democracyforsale.substack.com/p/breaking-our…

This 👇tends to always be the fundamentals over the complex. Voters paying attention to specific stories and altering their prospective ballot box behaviour accordingly? Rarely ever. Changes in issue salience rewarding/punishing parties strong/weak in that space? Often happens.

As immigration dominates the brief this morning, here’s my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue: labourlist.org/2025/11/immigr… (Full report linked below - Many thanks to @EmmaBurnell_!)

I thought I was coming down with something and ill but no I just hadn’t had a coffee this morning

I've got some very exiting news!!🥳👀 The @YouGov political team is growing fast, and we are hiring a Senior Analytics Executive to work directly under @BethKMann1 and myself! It's an exciting data-heavy, coding-filled, politically-focused role. Interested? Link in next tweet!