Phil Cunningham

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Phil Cunningham

Phil Cunningham

@firesciphil

Global Wildfire Peril Lead @GallagherRe_ Wildfire modeling and atmospheric science Tennis enthusiast and former 'pretty decent' junior player

Boston, MA Katılım Aralık 2021
236 Takip Edilen356 Takipçiler
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
I did grown up things yesterday. (Thanks, @Hotshot_Movie, for the assist with some images.)
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@Quelah2 @Hotshot_Movie I’ve had a few good conversations with Chief Dave over the last several years. Top guy and extremely knowledgeable.
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@Hotshot_Movie The brakes on a car can fail sometimes. Seems like a good argument to stop putting brakes in all cars completely 🤷‍♂️
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Mann Made Cinema
Mann Made Cinema@Hotshot_Movie·
Maybe we should call them fire-BRAKES instead of firebreaks.
Mann Made Cinema@Hotshot_Movie

This is the common retort from people who don't understand what firebreaks do, so let's dismantle this once and for all. This is like saying "well, seatbelts don't save you when you get hit head on by a semi going 70mph, therefore seatbelts don't work and they're meaningless." Yes, under the WORST possible conditions, seatbelts won't save your life and and under the worst conditions, wildfires will jump firebreaks. But not every fire starts or spreads into bad spots under the worst possible conditions. Not every wildfire spots 3 miles ahead of itself. You don't just give up on using this tried and true tactic and surrender to EVERY single wildfire that may occur. Furthermore, these people don't understand what firebreaks actually do. A firebreak sometimes stops the fire. But a firebreak ALWAYS converts a raging head fire into a spot fire. It converts something you CAN'T stop into something you have a chance to stop. Additionally, a firebreak isn't always meant to stop the fire, but be an anchor point for a firing operation ahead of the flaming front. During a wildfire, hand crews and dozers have to work quickly to construct these lines so they can fire off ahead of the front and have a larger buffer that CAN mitigate the long range spotting. Firefighters are always racing against time. That's why they use retardant...not to stop the fire, but to retard the progress of it, to buy time to get line constructed, and firing operations executed. If you have pre-attack lines already in place, resources can just immediately anchor in and get to work. Furthermore, spotting potential decreases logarithmically with distance. Not every ember is capable of carrying heat residency across 3 miles. Most embers fizzle out within seconds. Therefore, the closer the next receptive fuel bed, the exponentially higher odds of the fire spotting multiple times. A short range spot is exponentially more likely than a long range spot. By establishing a 300 foot fuel break, you increase your odds of protecting what's on the other side, by orders of magnitude. And wind-driven fires spot in ONE direction. You don't get 3 mile spotting on the flanks. While a fuel break may not stop the head of the fire, it often will stop the flanks...and given how most fires get wind swaps in the overnight hours, those buttoned up flanks could've become raging head fire later. Here is an example from when I was in the middle of the freeway on the Easy Fire in 2019. As you can see, NOTHING was stopping this head fire. No amount of hoses, deck guns, nothing. And the fire did spot across the freeway, but they picked it up almost immediately and buttoned up the fire. The freeway didn't stop the fire...it just converted head fire into a more manageable spot fire. I'm tired of everyone making excuses for not doing firebreaks. There's not a single person in wildland fire who thinks they don't work. The only people who think they don't work are people who don't understand how they work.

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Electric Coyote
Electric Coyote@LandCruiser_73·
@Hotshot_Movie I've seen wildfires start spot fires a mile away from the main fire. Firebreak don't do anything in high wind
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Mann Made Cinema
Mann Made Cinema@Hotshot_Movie·
This is the common retort from people who don't understand what firebreaks do, so let's dismantle this once and for all. This is like saying "well, seatbelts don't save you when you get hit head on by a semi going 70mph, therefore seatbelts don't work and they're meaningless." Yes, under the WORST possible conditions, seatbelts won't save your life and and under the worst conditions, wildfires will jump firebreaks. But not every fire starts or spreads into bad spots under the worst possible conditions. Not every wildfire spots 3 miles ahead of itself. You don't just give up on using this tried and true tactic and surrender to EVERY single wildfire that may occur. Furthermore, these people don't understand what firebreaks actually do. A firebreak sometimes stops the fire. But a firebreak ALWAYS converts a raging head fire into a spot fire. It converts something you CAN'T stop into something you have a chance to stop. Additionally, a firebreak isn't always meant to stop the fire, but be an anchor point for a firing operation ahead of the flaming front. During a wildfire, hand crews and dozers have to work quickly to construct these lines so they can fire off ahead of the front and have a larger buffer that CAN mitigate the long range spotting. Firefighters are always racing against time. That's why they use retardant...not to stop the fire, but to retard the progress of it, to buy time to get line constructed, and firing operations executed. If you have pre-attack lines already in place, resources can just immediately anchor in and get to work. Furthermore, spotting potential decreases logarithmically with distance. Not every ember is capable of carrying heat residency across 3 miles. Most embers fizzle out within seconds. Therefore, the closer the next receptive fuel bed, the exponentially higher odds of the fire spotting multiple times. A short range spot is exponentially more likely than a long range spot. By establishing a 300 foot fuel break, you increase your odds of protecting what's on the other side, by orders of magnitude. And wind-driven fires spot in ONE direction. You don't get 3 mile spotting on the flanks. While a fuel break may not stop the head of the fire, it often will stop the flanks...and given how most fires get wind swaps in the overnight hours, those buttoned up flanks could've become raging head fire later. Here is an example from when I was in the middle of the freeway on the Easy Fire in 2019. As you can see, NOTHING was stopping this head fire. No amount of hoses, deck guns, nothing. And the fire did spot across the freeway, but they picked it up almost immediately and buttoned up the fire. The freeway didn't stop the fire...it just converted head fire into a more manageable spot fire. I'm tired of everyone making excuses for not doing firebreaks. There's not a single person in wildland fire who thinks they don't work. The only people who think they don't work are people who don't understand how they work.
Jeffrey@dannnevvv

@Hotshot_Movie Embers can travel for miles. This is not increasing fire risk. The fire last year jumped the 405 which is twice as wide as the 101 here.

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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
Please read this! Statistically, firebreaks are effective, even in high winds. And @Hotshot_Movie explains why clearly and eloquently. Like any preventative measure (locking doors, wearing PPE, etc), it’s not 100% effective but it doesn’t make sense *not* to do it.
Mann Made Cinema@Hotshot_Movie

This is the common retort from people who don't understand what firebreaks do, so let's dismantle this once and for all. This is like saying "well, seatbelts don't save you when you get hit head on by a semi going 70mph, therefore seatbelts don't work and they're meaningless." Yes, under the WORST possible conditions, seatbelts won't save your life and and under the worst conditions, wildfires will jump firebreaks. But not every fire starts or spreads into bad spots under the worst possible conditions. Not every wildfire spots 3 miles ahead of itself. You don't just give up on using this tried and true tactic and surrender to EVERY single wildfire that may occur. Furthermore, these people don't understand what firebreaks actually do. A firebreak sometimes stops the fire. But a firebreak ALWAYS converts a raging head fire into a spot fire. It converts something you CAN'T stop into something you have a chance to stop. Additionally, a firebreak isn't always meant to stop the fire, but be an anchor point for a firing operation ahead of the flaming front. During a wildfire, hand crews and dozers have to work quickly to construct these lines so they can fire off ahead of the front and have a larger buffer that CAN mitigate the long range spotting. Firefighters are always racing against time. That's why they use retardant...not to stop the fire, but to retard the progress of it, to buy time to get line constructed, and firing operations executed. If you have pre-attack lines already in place, resources can just immediately anchor in and get to work. Furthermore, spotting potential decreases logarithmically with distance. Not every ember is capable of carrying heat residency across 3 miles. Most embers fizzle out within seconds. Therefore, the closer the next receptive fuel bed, the exponentially higher odds of the fire spotting multiple times. A short range spot is exponentially more likely than a long range spot. By establishing a 300 foot fuel break, you increase your odds of protecting what's on the other side, by orders of magnitude. And wind-driven fires spot in ONE direction. You don't get 3 mile spotting on the flanks. While a fuel break may not stop the head of the fire, it often will stop the flanks...and given how most fires get wind swaps in the overnight hours, those buttoned up flanks could've become raging head fire later. Here is an example from when I was in the middle of the freeway on the Easy Fire in 2019. As you can see, NOTHING was stopping this head fire. No amount of hoses, deck guns, nothing. And the fire did spot across the freeway, but they picked it up almost immediately and buttoned up the fire. The freeway didn't stop the fire...it just converted head fire into a more manageable spot fire. I'm tired of everyone making excuses for not doing firebreaks. There's not a single person in wildland fire who thinks they don't work. The only people who think they don't work are people who don't understand how they work.

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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@RamboVanHalen No fixing Hope, I’m afraid, my friend. That detached, sullen indifference is irremediable; she can barely be bothered to open her mouth to sing, let alone muster enough energy to move her arm a few inches to shake the tambourine. Still… one of the best songs of the 90s, though.
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Alastair Hilton
Alastair Hilton@London_W4·
And now I’m here at a lovely little pub in Mayfair. Just witnessed a classic interaction. The guy on the left asked the beautifully dressed English guy who just arrived for a drink, if he worked at a restaurant down the road. The perfectly dressed guy was totally speechless and the barman who knew him, explained that no he didn’t work in a restaurant. He did mention what he did and it was rather more lucrative. Was just a classic of putting your foot in it and accidentally insulting someone. Loved witnessing that.
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@Hotshot_Movie That’s a pretty incredible list of movies to come out in one year 🤯 I love Heat; it’s not perfect, but I think it definitely belongs alongside the other films in this list. Other movies released that year: Basketball Diaries Dolores Claiborne Waterworld 😏 Clueless
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Stephanie Myles
Stephanie Myles@OpenCourt·
@firesciphil @Racquetechie I fished it out and brought it all the way home. Put it up on my wall to remind me that no matter WHAT, it’s only a tennis match. Life hack. When i do TV hits it’s always in the background and people always laugh. He does too, when he sees it on FaceTime 🤣🤣🤣🤣
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@OpenCourt @Racquetechie You don’t think I’ve *tried* to find a nice modern tech stick that works for me?! 🤣 Maybe @Racquetechie can help, but quite frankly I prefer the R271 to modern variants like the VCORE Pro 97. Not that I don’t need the help; this just feels nicer than anything I’ve tried.
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Stephanie Myles
Stephanie Myles@OpenCourt·
@firesciphil @Racquetechie Haha. You know there have been so many technological developments in recent years to compensate for our failing skills that you are doing yourself a disservice. We’re not 20 any more. Need a mindset shift 😂😂
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@OpenCourt @Racquetechie You can’t say it has a story and then not tell 😒 Strings look gut-ish, so I’m guessing a pro? But if it belonged to a pro, then in all likelihood it’s a Super RD Tour with an RDX500 paint job 🤣🤣 (i.e., Nalbandian or Hewitt)
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@Racquetechie @OpenCourt Ah, it was magnificent. Nothing like that 100% fiberglass layup. I’ve never really enjoyed playing with modern sticks; tried so many but I just don’t like the feel. So I found a bunch of these: Yonex R-271, the last of the Rexkings. About as perfect as I think a racquet can be!
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@OpenCourt @Racquetechie I tried hitting with the Ashe Boron once. Thing was like trying to swing Mjölnir… The XRC was feather lite in comparison
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Andrew Siffert
Andrew Siffert@AndrewSiffert·
I cannot wait to travel to a much warmer climate along with millions others for spring break. No one is coming to Minnesota to enjoy winter. M4GW
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Phil Cunningham
Phil Cunningham@firesciphil·
@OpenCourt @Racquetechie Had one of these bad boys back in ‘82 when I was 11. Incredible stick. When it finally died (fibreglass wore down completely around the top of the head) I couldn’t find them anywhere in the UK. Plus by that point I was breaking strings and needed more than one racquet anyway 🤷‍♂️
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