@judicialhub @RedistrictNet What are the two cases and what are the arguments of each?
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Crusty
16 posts
@RedistrictNet It should be noted that there is another federal lawsuit as well.
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#NEW: A federal court has denied plaintiffs’ motion for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction against Tennessee's new congressional map (Hale v. Lee). democracydocket.com/cases/tennesse…
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@varadmehta I don’t even think the District Court issued a ruling yet
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Anyone know when the Fifth Circuit will hear the appeal? Depending on the timing, the Supreme Court could hear the case itself next term. I don't see how it's not before the justices in its 2027-28 term at the latest. Fun decision to drop the summer before the 2028 election.
SCOTUS Wire@scotus_wire
🚨 The Supreme Court has temporarily restored nationwide access to mail-order abortion pills, staying a 5th Circuit ruling pending appeal.
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@BeyondNonJD @ChuckGrassley Can’t believe R’s caved on all of these seats. Could’ve all been Trump nominees
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And with our first blue/purple district court nominees of Trump 2.0, a very quick rundown I had made of similar ones under Biden (any mistakes, lemme know!).
8 of the first 9 were purple. And @ChuckGrassley takes filling district court vacancies fast quite seriously.
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@DustinKeel4 @scotus_wire Even if they did, that wouldn’t impact 2026?
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@floppyparm @scotus_wire Still waiting to see whether the petitioners actually submitted enough signatures to block the map. Probably won't know until July/August.
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🚨 The Missouri Supreme Court has upheld the new Republican-drawn congressional map.
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@RedEaglePatriot Should R’s be paying more attention to state legislature maps especially in places like TX, GA, etc.
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Possible 2030s Census, Post-VRA "Redistricting War" End Result--one that even plausibly holds in a Dem-friendly year...
Red State Changes:
-ID gains a seat due to the census
-UT gains a seat due to the census, opts to keep blue vote sink in SLC (perhaps, wisely)
-TX and FL gain 4 each and move for 38-4 R and 28-4 R, respectively
-Nothing in Kansas or Nebraska, as GOP is too spineless in either
-GOP adds a seat in LA, MS, KY, SC, MO and 2 in AL
-IN and OH finally does their job, OH decides to make Cincy a Likely D vote sink to prevent competitiveness in other R districts
Blue State Changes:
-IL goes 14-1, preventing a dummymander, loses 2
-CA dummymander bursts in 2028, then goes 46-2, and loses several seats due to census
-Dems draw out more in NY, making it 20-4 D after the census (state loses 2)
-MD, OR, WA, MD all draw out a red seat; OR loses a seat due to the census
-MN moves for 5-2
-VA moves for 10-1 but gets the referendum timing right this time
-Dems lose a seat in RI due to the census
-Dems go for a 10-2 D NJ map
-CO Dems end their independent commission for a 7-1 D map
Swing State Changes:
-WI Courts mandate a ridiculous 4-4 before 2028, then Dems lose a seat, making a 3-3-1 Map
-MI and PA keep their commissions (here, PA is set at 8-8, MI is 6-6-1...geography favors Rs in both, though)
-NH draws a slight GOP district next census
-NV has a 2-2 split, possibly so even keeping the current map
-AZ is 7-3 R (gains seat, plus new hypothetical R trifecta in 2031 sets aside commission)
-GA goes 12-3 R, pack Atlanta
-NC gains a (red) seat
Here's the kicker, though: if Dem states drew out every remaining GOP representative...GOP would still take the House
2 in CA, 1 in WA, in CO, 2 in MN, 1 in IL, 4 in NY, 2 in NJ, 1 in VA...that's only going to get them to 214...with a lot of dummymander potential to boot.
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@BeyondNonJD When do we need to start seeing names in order to get these filled?
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Again, a lot has to go wrong for a D +4 in the Senate midterms. But you can basically confirm anyone you want with a 53R Senate. So why take the chance, no matter how remote it is? Still almost 3 months for just another 12 nominees (and obviously the CCA10/8 TBD ones).
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Things are looking good for Republicans right now. But I still think it'd be irresponsible of them not to have every current red state district court opening filled before their August vacation.
Never know what seats will open in August-October. Or what else will be happening.
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I had the odds of Judge Southwick going senior under Trump 2.0/R Senate at about 1%. Probably good time to drop it a bit lower.
Judge Richman? Probably sticking around a bit longer too.
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@BeyondNonJD Imagine caring about this even in the slightest when you’re risking your entire legacy being replaced by a DEI abortionist judge
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@BeyondNonJD Probably not worth it given how few vacancies there’d be? I’d say hold off until 2028 if everything aligns then
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Do district court blue slips survive a Republican-controlled 120th Congress?
50-50 I think almost certainly.
51-49 I'd feel very confident.
52-48 (assume NC & ME flip) I think it depends how much Trump 2.0 wants to press it. Could do a test with Massachusetts & assess.
53-47 🤷♂️
Beyond Non-JD@BeyondNonJD
It doesn't get that much attention (relatively speaking), but @ChuckGrassley putting an end to circuit court blue slips has transformed the circuits & been a huge advantage for Republicans over the past decade. judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/rele…
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Now we see if his father takes senior status, thus opening up another seat on the Eighth Circuit for President Trump to fill.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
US Senate votes along party lines to confirm Arkansas state judge John Shepherd to serve as a federal judge on the US District Court for Western Arkansas, replacing a federal judge appointed by President Obama.
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@charliesmirkley When will these differences really begin to impact elections?
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Family Studies showed % w/ children by ideology. But it understates the gap.
Mean children captures both who has kids AND how many.
2020s, ages 25-35:
Men: Con 1.06 vs Lib 0.35
Women: Con 1.67 vs Lib 0.87
Brad Wilcox@BradWilcoxIFS
1. NYT: "great detachment" is greater for the poor, working class and for liberals, who often prize autonomy/career over family. "by 2020s, 71% of conservative women [25-35] had children, compared w/ only 40% of liberal women. That’s an astounding 31-percentage-point gap."
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Can Iowa protect children & parental rights by mandating teachers notify parents about social transitions? Can Iowa prohibit teaching about sexuality/gender identify in elementary schools? Judge Erickson answers, "Yes." (I argued this & another Eighth Cir. win today back-to-back)
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"Federal courts are not all powerful." Judge Bumatay, writing for *Nine* judges in a dissental from the Ninth Circuit's refusal to review the case declining to let President Trump end *TEMPORARY* Protected Status. The Supreme Court has already ruled on this issue twice.
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So who is plausible for NY, whip smart, and hard working? Some possibilities:
- Daniel M. Sullivan, private practice, Scalia and O’Scannlain
- John Cronan, SDNY, 45 DOJ, Katzman and Parker
- Rachel Kovner, EDNY, OSG, Scalia and Wilkinson
- Iris Lan, GC of NASA, 45 DOJ, Bryson
- Jed Doty, 45 WHCO, Cabranes and Sykes
Mike Fragoso@mike_frags
What to look for in a Second Circuit pick? There are a few differences between it and the Sixth, but, in short, you want brains and industry. For one thing, CA6 has a conservative supermajority, which means it’s really dealer’s choice. CA2 has a very narrow liberal majority—with no real middle. So the task of a judge is very different from CA6 and even little different from, say, CA7 where margins are also thin but you need someone who can persuade the majority makers. For CA2 you want a judge in the mold of Steve Menashi: brutally intelligent and hard working. On mine-run cases an industrious judge can simply outwork his liberal counterparts while it takes brains (and not just ideology) to get attention upstairs when needed. For another, the bench in NY (perhaps surprisingly) is not nearly as deep as in Ohio. There’s no Ohio SG’s office to draw from—or the stellar FL bench, or the excellent MO AG’s office, or the strong NC USAOs. So for NY you may need to go a little further afield or make hard choices. The good news: no Republican senators to please. Not only that, Schumer is a cartoon villain so he’ll get no consideration at all.
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