Dustin Keel
261 posts
Detailed thread on how Republican can redistrict for '28
Louisiana:
How: Can statutorily redistrict (+1)
Mississippi:
How: Can statutorily redistrict (+1)
Alabama:
How: Can statutorily redistrict (+1)
North Carolina:
How: Can statutorily redistrict w/o Governor (+1)
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@corbinmadisonr @AstorAaron @SeanTrende @CarlPaulus I don't know who drew them but I see them on the "Most Compact" page on DRA right now.
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@DustinKeel4 @AstorAaron @SeanTrende @CarlPaulus No, these maps are from 538’s redistricting atlas. The Dave’s “Most Compact” are drawn by weird Election Twitter people.
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People treat a simple compactness/minimal splits criterion as if it does nothing. That’s wrong. It’s basically what Bernie Grofman and I use for 95% of our work in Virginia. It would help a lot, and be far less controversial than the so-called partisan fairness measures.
Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban
A maximally compact map would, in many states, genuinely much better than what we have right now.
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@AstorAaron @SeanTrende @CarlPaulus These are all maps in Dave's Redistricting. Click a state, then "Notable Maps" then "Most Compact," and you'll find the maps listed in the photo.
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@SeanTrende @CarlPaulus Would love to see how you’d map all fifty states per that model - or maybe you did? Is there a link to it?
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@aggou @StatisticUrban Texas and Florida for sure. Dems could pick up upwards of 8-10 seats in FL in a compact map compared to the 4 seats they have now. They could pick up 10 seats in TX too, b/c geography is great for them there.
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@StatisticUrban So with this approach, where would do you feel Dems would be the most benefitted and Reps compared to what's available?
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@norcalkr7 @StatisticUrban @bumbadum14 I consider them less compromised than the politicians literally choosing their voters.
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@StatisticUrban @bumbadum14 Hunter, come the freak on. California's "independent" commission literally had a 'Republican' who was a democrat that just lied
You act like these commissions would never be compromised like every other institution
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It's easy to think that these people are just ill-natured and are lying about what they actually believe.
But I choose to believe that isn't the case. They are just adorable and know nothing. They are like children.
"Everything should be drawn by a non-partisan committee and it would all be okay"
Then the non-partisan committee produces this slop.
Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban
Gerrymandering is just absurd, you can equally make an 11R-3D Georgia and an 11D-3R Georgia. It's really, really bad, and I wish Republicans would get on board with banning it nationwide, for everyone.
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@erickson_68 @politico "just" decided to join the fight while ignoring Project REDMAP?
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After more than a decade of pushing for anti-gerrymandering measures, Dems are gearing up to play political hardball as the GOP gains the redistricting upper hand.
“We will beat the far-right extremists,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said.
politico.com/news/2026/05/1…
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Im starting a project where I am gonna draw fair maps for ALL 50 STATES, with an emphasis on making a lot of battleground districts.
Starting with… Massachussets.
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@LCWAJMBS @Izengabe_ @posty2 @mustarastas88 @NOVAaocfan20 I agree but it bewilders me how new england is the prime example of gerrymandering for some reason. Even the Vice President tweeted about it, and now posting that all blue new england map is their go-to
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@DustinKeel4 @Izengabe_ @posty2 @mustarastas88 @NOVAaocfan20 The GOP isn’t competitive in New England (it’ll likely win ME-2 this year though) for the same reason Dems aren’t competitive in the rural South—if you don’t run candidates that fit the district, you aren’t going to win.
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If you look at the real map of New England you realize it isn't gerrymandered at all and the highly spread out Republicans are actually just fumbling 6 winnable seats every cycle.
Republican candidates have won FOURTEEN of these districts in statewide races this past decade.
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@franzisquinn @hellodonavon @NOVAaocfan20 And if the dems win that competitive seat yall would still use MA as an example of dem gerrymandering the same way Maine is used
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@hellodonavon @NOVAaocfan20 The map deliberately eliminates any competitive seats. There could be one around Worcester and one around Fall River, but these areas are cracked and drawn with a bunch of Boston suburbs.
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@Izengabe_ @LCWAJMBS @posty2 @mustarastas88 @NOVAaocfan20 I think the point is that CT is not remotely similar to states drawn by legislature to maximize gain. Dems did not draw the map. Sure, they like the map now because the GOP fell out of favor, but it's still competitive. GOP came with 1% in the 5th district in 2022, for example.
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@LCWAJMBS @posty2 @mustarastas88 @NOVAaocfan20 Give me a break. The NH legislature drew a fair 1D-1R map & RINO Chris Sununu vetoed it.
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@ElectionMapsIF @acopo1024 @chriswithans it's closer to the data they were looking at at the time these maps were created.
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@DustinKeel4 @acopo1024 @chriswithans Why use 2020 data when Biden's performance in Massachusetts was the best by a democrat since 1964?
That's like using Obama's 2008 victory as a baseline for Indiana in 2014
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Silly maneuver. Will be quickly erased by Massachusetts.
Republicans don't know what they're inviting.
I present to you The Healeymander.
POLITICO@politico
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster is expected to announce a special session on redistricting, teeing up the state legislature to pass a Republican gerrymander. It would almost certainly cost Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn his seat in the midterms. politico.com/news/2026/05/1…
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@RGreggKeller The SOS has had 5 months to count the signatures. Just do it and get it over with.
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It’s clear as day and she’s playing dumb. She’s currently in the FA phase of this stunt.
Jason Hancock@J_Hancock
Boone County Clerk Brianna Lennon says she cannot determine which congressional map is in effect for the Aug. 4 primary until Secretary of State Denny Hoskins determines whether there are sufficient petition signatures to force a referendum. #moleg missouriindependent.com/2026/05/13/boo…
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@acopo1024 @chriswithans Draw one. Make sure to use 2020 data. This is what I found. I still consider it a toss-up though and if a dem ever wins, y'all would still say it's a dem gerrymander.
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@DustinKeel4 @chriswithans Almost half the state is red. You can draw a safe red seat in Massachusetts
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@acopo1024 @chriswithans even if you drew a toss-up district or +1 Biden/Trump district, a democrat likely wins and then y'all would still use it as evidence that red states get to gerrymander.
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I always find it hysterical when the left argue that "there's no possible way to draw a republican map in Massachusetts." Or the best one I've heard was "it's not because of gerrymandering, it's because Democrats are the majority in most of the districts." And WHY are they the majority in most of the districts?
Unserious people.
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@ACLU_SC He's from DC and drafted maps for several states (TX, IN, MO). Can't imagine how he can have any insight on the needs of citizens in all these states.
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Adam Kincaid of the National Republican Redistricting Trust is addressing the subcommittee via Zoom to explain the map he drew: “What I went through and tried to accomplish was a map for South Carolina that would elect 7 Republicans.”
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A House subcommittee is meeting to redraw our Congressional map. New map could secure all 7 Congressional districts for Republicans while diluting the voting power of Black voters.
Livestream: scstatehouse.gov/video/stream.p…
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@BigElad The MO GOV will most definitely run the clock and say it's too late for 2026. And even if the Voters veto it in the gen election, the MO leg can do the exact same thing in 2028. The courts will have to address this "loophole".
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Court: New Missouri Congressional Maps in Effect, But May Be Invalid? - Redistricting Mayhem
Missouri's Supreme Court ruled that the newly drawn Congressional maps in Missouri are in effect until the Secretary of State certifies referendum signatures, but what happens then?
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@HellbenderSTL How does this shutout anyone? Doesn't every one still get to vote and doesnt your vote still count as the same 1 vote that it always did?
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This “Missouri First” map is pure partisan gerrymandering. One lonely blue St. Louis district + seven deep-red ones that crack KC, dilute urban voters down Troost, and stretch rural tentacles into the 5th. Mid-decade power grab to flip another House seat. Shuts out thousands of Missourians.
Mike Kehoe@MikeLKehoe
The Missouri First Map stands.
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@oneandonlyrad @EdCSutton You said the GOP was forced to draw that seat though, which is wrong.
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@EdCSutton Partisan gerrymandering is legal per SCOTUS according to Rucho V. Common Cause of 2019. Democrats sued Republican states for seats when Republicans gerrymandered but Democrats were gerrymandering their own states. You can't make this up. 😆
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Republicans drew our current South Carolina maps, not Dems.
Stop insulting people's intelligence by pretending otherwise.
Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette@PamelaEvette
South Carolina’s voters elected strong Republican majorities in the State House and Senate to deliver fair, constitutional congressional maps that end Democrat racial gerrymandering and strengthen our conservative stronghold. The Senate’s refusal to advance these efforts today is a betrayal of the people of South Carolina and a direct defiance of President Trump's clear call to produce maps that honor the will of our voters and put America First. There is no time for hesitation or excuses. We must finish this redistricting work now, by any means necessary, to deliver representation rooted in the Constitution, not identity politics. I stand with conservatives across South Carolina and President Trump in leading this fight to end the rigged maps, eliminate racial gerrymandering, and maximize the conservative stronghold. The integrity of our elections and the future of our state demand nothing less.
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@floppyparm @scotus_wire Still waiting to see whether the petitioners actually submitted enough signatures to block the map. Probably won't know until July/August.
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@scotus_wire Is this finally it now for Missouri? I feel like there were so many different cases there
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🚨 The Missouri Supreme Court has upheld the new Republican-drawn congressional map.
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@TheReeceEllis Do we know how long the SOS has? Primaries are in August. I know one article said the SOS "has until August" to verify, which makes me think it can't run the clock. Two measures for 2024 took about 9 weeks to verify signatures. We're at 5 months though.
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An important part of this decision which suggests that there’s at least one more bite at the apple when the Secretary of State inevitably finds the petition was timely and has enough signatures. The Supreme Court has basically said “it’s too early to know, but we will know soon”
VoteHub@VoteHub
The Missouri Supreme Court has upheld the new 7R-1D congressional map, which will be used in the 2026 midterms. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Democratic-leaning Kansas City district has been dismantled and replaced with a Republican-leaning seat. MO-05 RVI Before: 🔵 D +12 After: 🔴 R +8.2
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