FINCH

One of the interesting dilemmas facing the oil market today is that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens fully tomorrow, there are now north of 180 million bbls sitting in tankers. All of those tankers will have to unload first, which would take 35-45 days. After, it needs to travel back to the Middle East, which would be another 25-30 days. Meanwhile, other tankers will be in route to countries like Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq to load. This will take 25-30 days. Altogether, flows physically can’t resume to normal even if it opened tomorrow. This is why we are headed for the breaking point in the oil market. The physical dislocation I just explained above saw the reverse take place during COVID when OPEC+ came to a historic production cut agreement of 10 million b/d. The cuts came too late as demand destruction had already taken place. Couple that with the fact that the cuts weren’t going to start until May, and the agreement was in early April, sent oil prices into the depth of hell 2 weeks later. So manage your expectations accordingly.

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth. Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market. If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history. If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want. If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime." By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything. Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran? Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent. "Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to. Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico." It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made. I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation. And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms. And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months? Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!" Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire. Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :) #oott #iran

People who moved abroad alone in their 20s, handled all docs, bank account, visa, tax, jobs, accomadation, and culture difference These people fear nothing anymore

To the people of the United States of America

Yikes

👍

Wut

WSJ is asking if private credit is the next financial crisis. That headline alone tells you something. Here's the structural problem nobody's pricing. $1.7 trillion in private loans that don't mark to market daily. Fund NAVs can lag reality by entire quarters. Banks provide credit lines to these funds. So the "shadow" lending still transmits back into the regulated system when things break. The borrowers are mostly middle-market companies. Exactly the firms that get squeezed first in a recession. You can monitor public credit stress in real time. Private credit has no spread to watch. No daily price discovery. That opacity isn't a feature. It's the risk. When quarterly NAVs finally catch up to deteriorating fundamentals, redemption requests hit funds holding loans they can't sell at par. That's the transmission mechanism. $BTC sitting at $66,418 on a Sunday while this conversation starts going mainstream is interesting. Crypto already had its leverage reckoning in 2022. Private credit hasn't had its moment yet. Friday's NFP will tell us how fast middle-market borrowers start missing payments. Weak labor data compresses the timeline on extend-and-pretend. Every cycle reveals what was invisible during the expansion. Is private credit this cycle's hidden leverage, or am I overthinking it?

The first bounce after a five-week selloff is the most expensive trade in markets. Every technical signal will look perfect. RSI resetting from oversold. MACD crossing up. "Support held." Retail sees a textbook buy. Institutions see a liquidity window to sell into. This has played out the same way in every major drawdown I've traded through. 2018 Q4, March 2020, every bear rally in 2022. The first bounce averages 3 to 5 days before rolling over to retest or break the lows. It's not random. It's structural. Buyback blackouts mean no corporate bid. Negative gamma means dealers aren't reinforcing the move higher. CTA rebalancing is mechanical, not emotional. They need sustained price above trigger levels before they flip. So the first bounce runs on short covering and retail enthusiasm. That's it. And that fuel burns in days, not weeks. The hardest trade right now isn't buying the dip. It isn't staying short. It's doing absolutely nothing when the first green candle shows up. Sitting on your hands while fintwit screams "bottom is in" takes more discipline than any entry you'll ever make. The real setup comes on the second test. When the tourists are gone and only real buyers remain. If you survived this drawdown with capital intact, don't give it back chasing the relief rally. What's your rule for re-entry after a prolonged flush?

lol

Well said

If everything reopened tomorrow it would take 6 months for the energy supply chain to rebalance This will be the shock of a generation and few are paying attention

@ohiain Hard selling

> chop/topping behavior > leaders start failing at support > market breadth contracts > rotations get weaker > hard selling/expansion to the downside > capitulation (fast, emotional moves) > basing (tight ranges, volatility contraction) > higher lows > new uptrend Where are we?

Always ask yourself whether you’re trying to catch an elusive turn or ride a real trend - whether you’re hunting rabbits or hunting elephants.

JUST IN: Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital $MARA sells 15,133 BTC worth over $1 billion.

The longer I'm in this game, the more I realize that it's about saying "nope, not interested" most of the time, until my experience tells me a trade has so much potential that I have no choice but to put my money to work.

Jfc

A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships go through Hormuz. That's it.

Good morning. Remember: The market doesn't owe you anything this week. Not a bounce, not a trend, not a setup. But if you show up prepared and patient, the market tends to reward you over time. That's the deal. Let's start the week right.