Charlie DeShazo
171 posts
If POTUS can calm the storm in the middle within his 3 week targeted time frame (which will be very difficult), we should see:
The strait of Hormuz opened and likely with military support.
Oil well below $100/barrel.
The S&P 500 and Dow up at least 5-10%.
Approval ratings for Trump tick up.
U.S. bases on Greenland built.
NATO talks underway on whether U.S. will cease to partake in or continue on.
Trade talks between nations ramping up.
Oil storage and production capabilities being reworked.
Job growth in the U.S. as the focus shifts from war to economic growth.
Rate cuts will have a higher likelihood of happening.
Global recession fears dissipate.
Bitcoin and Ethereum rally.
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@EndicottInvests I believe both with pump, but if you look into why SpaceX is valued at 2 trillion it’s because of starlink. ASTS has more direct exposure to D2D theme. $BLSY is very interesting and small MC.
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So is $RKLB or $ASTS a better proxy for the SpaceX IPO?
I’ve owned both and made $ on both.
Lemme hear which is better
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@growthrapidly The only thing the market cares about is the strait being closed.
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@EndicottInvests Good idea, playing it through $ASTS. Seems that 60-70% of the valuation is from starlink. Feel that $ASTS has the narrative of Direct to device services.
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If SpaceX IPOs at $2T with $20B in revenue and a high capex business
Give me $NBIS at $250B
Might be one of the most ridiculous IPOs I’ve ever seen
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@EndicottInvests I cut my losses this morning. Down 30% on my position.
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$TE management said they would do do more revenue in Q4 than they did in the previous 3 quarters combined.
That number should have been $398 M+
It was $358 M
I may just cut my losses here
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@SJCapitalInvest Very conflicted on what to do with my position here. Might cut and run.
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Didn’t look deeply but my quick $TE earnings take.
Biggest red flag isn’t the EPS.
It is that management called for +$410M in the last earnings call
“Larger than our first 3 quarters total”
They hit $358M. They missed their own revenue guidance from 3mo ago by 10-15%.
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@TRidgeCapital @SJCapitalInvest @spacanpanman $400 million needs to happen. Would like more comments on 45x credits and FOEC compliance.
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What are people thinking going into $TE earrings tomorrow morning? Do we come in at $400 million in revenue? Do we get another off-take agreement?
@SJCapitalInvest @spacanpanman
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$NBIS "Think about Nebius as a fourth hyperscaler."
- Arkady Volzoh, CEO
GOOD MORNING 🔥🔥
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@KrisPatel99 @Kross_Roads The time frame was 1 year in Amit’s survey. Nvidia just re accelerated growth, doubt they get multiple compression untill we see the capex slow and their growth with it.
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@Kross_Roads Hard disagree Roy.
Microsoft is a non-cyclical business and will eventually get a non-cyclical premium.
Nvidia is likely to face a growth slowdown and multiple compression.
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$MSFT and $NVDA are both incredibly attractive here, but I'd pick Nvidia easily.
Three reasons:
1⃣ Nvidia is at the epicenter of the AI wave, which looks to continue for a while (likely surpassing most estimates). Microsoft is positioned decently and not going away, but I'd rather stick with the prime beneficiary rather than worry about software's moat.
Further, with Microsoft and most of the hyperscalers, there are significant CapEx concerns. These concerns mostly benefit Nvidia.
Unless you believe China invades Taiwan, or AI is a passing fad, it's just a cleaner bet.
2⃣ While forward P/E looks similar over the next 12 months, when we look 2 years out, it's clear $NVDA is more attractive.
3⃣ FCF trumps all, and the P/FCF of Nvidia is lower. And on a forward basis, substantially lower than $MSFT.
Both are, over the long term, great opportunities, but Nvidia's returns will likely dwarf that of Microsoft.
amit@amitisinvesting
Would you rather buy $MSFT or $NVDA at these levels for a one year holding period? $MSFT — $370, -21% YTD, $2.7T MC, 22x FWD PE $NVDA — $179, -5% YTD, $4.3T MC, 21x FWD PE
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@spacanpanman When do we get to know the magnitude of your ASTS position @spacanpanman
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$ASTS: Yes, and folks invested way more than $10k. Life changing indeed.
Mindset for Money@Mindset4Money_X
If you invested $10K into $ASTS during the 2024 lows, you would currently have $385K... Keep in mind, this is nearly 30% off of ATH's. Life changing.
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@EndicottInvests I doubt we bottom until oil comes back down and the strait opens. We are only 5% off the highs on the SPY.
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I think we're close to a bottom
We bottomed at 3 last April during the tariff scare
On Friday we also had a CRAZY high volume day on the $SPY
I'm not the best TA guy but I'm learning!
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Okay yeah tomorrow won’t be fun
Leading Report@LeadingReport
BREAKING: President Trump: There will be ‘total decimation of Iran.’
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@SJCapitalInvest @tdogg2213 What exactly is the red flag for not March. I thought they had all the way out to mid April to report?
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@tdogg2213 I have not seen an official date. All the platforms are just guessing right now.
Again, too big a red flag if they can’t report in March
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@SJCapitalInvest I’m frustrated too with TE bc of the lack of updates and the earnings date still not announced. @spacanpanman did say he spoke with management team and it should be out by late March. Really like the story. I hope it comes together in Q4.
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🔹S&J Portfolio Update 3/21/26🔹
Total: $2.04M
Down $80k W/W
Active Port:
1. CASH
2. $AMPX
3. $IBRX
4. $PL
5. $OSS
6. $TE
7. $LPTH
🔹Key Takeaways🔹
🔹 Cash is largest position
🔹 Slightly down w/w
🔹 Reduced/temporarily excited multiple positions
🔹Overview🔹
If you have not picked up on this yet, I have some serious short / medium term concerns about the economy and the market. I don’t think anyone can predict the direction of the war
Side note: Can I call it a war yet without people saying I’m dramatic or “it’s going to be over by the weekend.” Anyone who believes this, I have a bridge to sell you. Please DM me.
I think the best thing to do to get a sense of where my head is at, is to just look at my portfolios from 4-6 weeks ago (they are all linked here) when I was +60% options and had no cash. The only reason I am not down several 100k is because I started aggressively selling early this week on the up days.
My timing on pulling cash for ETFs also looks incredible right now. I still have deployed all that cash as you can see.
Position by Position Breakdown:
🔹 $AMPX:
Sold all my options here this week. Has nothing to do with how bullish I am on the company. I just think the market will drag this down at some point and I will get a better entry.
I have a lot of commons because I want to be invested here regardless.
🔹 $IBRX
I sold some here then added on a few recent approvals. This is the only options position I am carrying. I really just think this explodes at some point this year.
The signals and constant approvals are too much at this point. I expect to end the year over $20. +30 wouldn’t shock me.
It also moves counter to market a lot which is why I don’t feel the need to reduce too much. It could rip 40% while everything falls.
🔹 $PL
Sometimes a little luck is nice. I bought about 130k of this the day before earnings and got a 35% run. I sold half just because of the market/iran. I plan to add back but lower.
🔹 $OSS
Earnings here was very good but fell short of great. I still like this company and I bet if you hold it you will outperform the market significantly, and it’s still an acquisition target. But I have some concerns about how they accelerate revenue growth. The numbers here are small. Ideally I want to see 100% annual growth at this size. I am looking for things that can 2-4x in a year or two. I am debating how hypergrowth this can be.
$TE
The earnings delay and cao issue combined is just too much of a red flag for me. I still have a position here because I love the upside but this has become too abnormal to ignore. I didn’t make all this money ignoring red flags. I might be wrong but I’m happy to miss an explosion to protect myself.
🔹 $LPTH
Again, just sold my options here because I think we go lower in general.
🔹 $OUST
I bought this last week and continued to watch the economic news deteriorate (inflation/cost of living/ energy/war). I sold Thursday/Friday. I will enter here again, likely lower. It just didn’t make sense to own a brand new position given where I think we are headed. Will own again.
🔹My Thoughts🔹
As much as I love the wins, I am incredibly proud of my ability to actually protect and keep my money. I am barely off my highs as the market sinks.
I do not believe in timing the market. Hence me being 70% invested, but I do think there are times to be more or less aggressive, which is what you are seeing.
The other thing I will be honest about, seeing $2m in my account is new. I like it. A lot. I want to keep it that way more than I want to grow my account fast. It’s a new feeling. Maybe I am losing my nerve….
I have been carrying an insane amount of options for a while now. Having unloaded those my nervous system is more relaxed than it’s been in a while and it feels nice.
I am not in a rush to be back there and my 100% YTD again means I don’t have to.
🔹
S&J Investments@SJCapitalInvest
🔹S&J Portfolio Update 3/14/26🔹 Total: $1.41M * Excludes $700k cash I banked 1. $AMPX 2. $TE 3. $OSS 4. $IBRX 5. $BE 6. $OUST $. $LPTH 7. $Cash 🔹Key Takeaways🔹 🔹+ $200k this week 🎉 🔹+ New ATH hit this week 🎉🎉 🔹 Officially took $700k off table 🎉🎉🎉 This was a big week personally as I took action on a decision that has been on my mind since October. When is enough… enough? I am proud i made the move, I essentially just wiped out one of my accounts to rip the band-aid off and not punt it, so I spent a lot of yesterday re-shuffling my portfolio to balance back out. It’s not perfect yet but not bad. 🔹Position by Position Breakdown🔹 $AMPX: 28% What’s not to like here? Earnings were perfect, the broader macro situation continues to lean heavily in their favor, CEO is out in front on linkedin promoting NDAA compliance. Valuation is not quite as compelling as it was when I first entered but they put up a huge quarter and we know guidance was exceptionally conservative. I have unloaded a lot of calls (only holding Jan 2027 now) here and it’s actually much LESS of my portfolio than before, but I am actually quite comfortable at 28%. You know how I feel about momentum, I am not fighting the ocean. I very much see this ending the year over $30. $TE: 15% I guess at some point they do have to report earnings…. Right? I am going to be honest, this delay is starting to bother me. Of course they are still within their timing per SEC so nothing is wrong but if I have a CAO issue and concern about my filings I want to get it out of the way and clear the deck fast, not wait until the last possible second. I reduced my options exposure here and ate a bad loss on some July calls, which is on me obviously. All of my calls are January and assuming any issues are re: previous revenue recognition I feel good about them rebounding by January (my calls are not aggressive strike prices, $7s and 10s). But I am going to be examining this very very closely. I need full clarify on revenue recognition, forward guidance and deals. If they put up +$400m as previously stated, I’ll shut up. $OSS: 13% I believe I originally recommended this around $8 in Jan. We just closed over $10 I’ve added here into strength as this chart is flipping bullish as earnings approaches. This is going to be a very interesting report as we finally get to see the business metrics of the pure play USA defense company without the Bressner business they sold. I have a feeling the street is going to be very excited about this once the smoke clears. Reminds me of $oust recent earnings. $IBRX 12%: Some good news Friday around their tech capabilities. Allows faster and more efficient scale of production. FDA approval is still the white whale here. I am staying here all year. New tech development raises the floor. Revenue still aggressively ramping. I can afford to take this moonshot. $BE: 9% Not an asymmetric investment. I just think this is the best AI energy company by a lot. I will add on weakness. My options here are Jan 2028. Just giving myself some leverage but no time pressure. Might reduce leverage here. $OUST: 8% My new position. I made a long post about it. Sector, revenue, valuation are all perfect. We are likely close to floor valuation here when you comp to peers. I’ll likely write a report on this in the coming days but for my own learning. $LPTH: 8% Been a bit slow here, still unsure why. They are coming off a massive year so probably still digesting the move. Earnings was great. Environment tells me that won’t slow down given their domestic need and military increased spending. 🔹Final Thoughts🔹 I still have too much leverage. Right now I am 2:1 options to commons across my portfolio. That should really be reversed. I loved my play swapping commons to cheap options on pullback. I want to be able to do that again, but I need to continue unwinding these positions. Let’s keep winning. 🔹
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@SJCapitalInvest @Sal_KMA Agreed. IMO if the strait was open, but the war was ongoing the market would rally. Which most likely is impossible because Iran knows that’s their leverage. Hard market to get bullish on until the conflict ends.
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@flyfishing2020 @Sal_KMA … the oil and energy crisis has everything to do with the war. The can’t just turn the faucet back on.
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If you think market isn’t going lower you are not paying attention.
I’m not calling a crash, but open your eyes.
We are still barely off the high marks.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: The Trump Administration has made "detailed preparations" for deploying US ground forces into Iran, per CBS News. Details include: 1. Senior military commanders have sent Trump specific requests aimed at preparing for a ground invasion 2. Trump has been "deliberating" whether to position ground forces in the region 3. The US has held meetings to prepare for how to handle the "possible detention of Iranian soldiers and paramilitary operatives" in a ground invasion 4. The US is preparing to deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division into the Middle East region It's going to be another busy weekend ahead.
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