Football Meets Data

🆕💥 ALL 54 EUROPEAN LEAGUES NOW IN THE SIMULATOR! 🎯 Proud to say that we now have all 5⃣4⃣ top divisions of UEFA members' leagues* in our 📊 Simulator! 📜 Our ever-expanding list of competitions now includes top divisions of: 🇦🇱 🇦🇩 🇦🇲 🇦🇹 🇦🇿 🇧🇾 🇧🇪 🇧🇦 🇧🇬 🇭🇷 🇨🇾 🇨🇿 🇩🇰 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇪🇪 🇫🇴 🇫🇮 🇫🇷 🇬🇪 🇩🇪 🇬🇮 🇬🇷 🇭🇺 🇮🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇹 🇰🇿 🇽🇰 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇱🇺 🇲🇹 🇲🇩 🇲🇪 🇳🇱 NIR 🇲🇰 🇮🇪 🇳🇴 🇵🇱 🇵🇹 🇷🇴 🇷🇺 🇸🇲 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🇷🇸 🇸🇰 🇸🇮 🇪🇸 🇸🇪 🇨🇭 🇹🇷 🇺🇦 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 ➕ 🇧🇷 🇿🇦 🇨🇦 🇯🇵 🇨🇳 🇸🇦 ➕ 2nd divisions of 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 ➕ 🔵 UCL 🟠 UEL 🟢 UECL ➕ 🌎 World Cup 2026 *sorry 🇱🇮, you'll have to start a league first to get on the list. 😃 👉 estimate probabilities for every position in the table 👉 test your own scenarios in upcoming matches to see how it impacts probabilities 👉 see how many points your team needs for each position in the table 👉 see who are your team's most likely opponents in the knockout stages 👉 access detailed pre-match probability analysis for every game 👉 access cool visuals and graphics 👉 simulate UEFA coefficients and ranking positions 🔜 simulate UEFA qualifying rounds, UEFA Nations League, and other new competitions ✅ Access to 📊 FMD Simulator on 🔗 in bio

@NUFCgallowgate In this particular scenario - no. One UEL spot would switch to a UCL spot, so England would be down to 1. Unless Palace win UECL, then they'd again have 2, and 9 overall in Europe.

@fmeetsdata Wouldn’t there be 2 EL spots?

📈 Chances that 6th place in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL will be a 🔵 UCL spot are very much alive! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa are now even more likely to finish 5th than last week. Remember, 6th-placed team needs: 1⃣ 🏆 Aston Villa to win 🟠 UEL 2⃣ 🏁 Aston Villa to finish exactly 5th in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL ❓ What are the chances of that happening? #⃣ Aston Villa to win 🟠 UEL = 32.4% #⃣ Aston Villa to finish 5th in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL = 58.1% 🎯 Right now the team with highest % to finish 6th is 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bournemouth, but that can change if 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Chelsea beat Forest tonight! 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios available in our 🕹️ Simulator

@Hull_Obsessed Correct. They could get to 9 if Palace win UECL.

@fmeetsdata If Villa win Europa but end 5th does this mean 6th is ucl, 7th Europa and 8th conference? So the prem lose a Europa spot and stays at 8 in Europe?

England can send 10 teams to Europe only if both 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Forest and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Palace win European trophies. In that case: 6⃣ 🔵 UCL = 1st-5th + Forest 3⃣ 🟠 UEL = 6th-7th + Palace 1⃣ 🟢 UECL = 8th Positions can change if Chelsea win FA Cup and finish below Top 7, but the allocation stays the same.

@kraxmvp Currently 2nd below the seeding line.

@fmeetsdata If Slovan and Celije move to Q2 from Q1, does that mean Levski will be seeded in Q1, as they were the first club below the Seeded projection line?

🏁 It's not yet mathematically confirmed, but 🇺🇦 Shakhtar win the 🇺🇦 league in 20,000/20,000 of our simulations. This means that no one ranked below them will enter 🔵 UCL directly this summer: ❌ 🇭🇺 Ferencvaros ❌ 🇩🇰 Midtjylland ❌ 🇬🇷 PAOK ❌ 🇷🇸 Crvena zvezda Only teams that can take a direct 🔵 UCL ticket away from 🇺🇦 Shakhtar are: 🇬🇷 Olympiacos 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Rangers if one of them win their league. But the odds of that are currently not big. ✅ 🇸🇰 Slovan Bratislava is now safe to be promoted up from Q1 to Q2! 🇸🇮 Celje will join them if 🇭🇺 Ferencvaros does NOT win the league. If 🇭🇺 Ferencvaros DOES win the league, then they will join 🇸🇰 Slovan Bratislava in moving from Q1 to Q2, while 🇸🇮 Celje will remain in Q1.

📉 With only 4 pts won in last 6 games, 🇫🇷 Marseille went from a position that leads directly to 🔵 UCL league stage (Round 27) to a place that may not even lead to Europe at all (Round 32).

🏆 Belgium 🇧🇪 can still send 1 team directly to 🟠 UEL league stage! 👇 This is the rebalancing scenario where 🟠 UEL is won by 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa + they finish exactly 5th in EPL (or 6th if Man City win FA Cup) 🏁 In that scenario: 🔺 cup winners* of 🇧🇪 would move from 🟠 UEL PO to league stage 🔺 cup winners* of 🇦🇹 would move from 🟠 UEL Q3 to PO 🔺 cup winners* of 🇨🇭🇮🇱🇨🇾🇸🇪 would move from 🟠 UEL Q1 to Q2 *or highest ranked team in the league if cup winners finished on a UCL position

@juju_739 Correct

@fmeetsdata La 4eme place ne peut pas être qualificative directe même en cas de victoire de l'Europa par Aston Villa ? Ce sera pour Benfica au vu du coefficient UEFA si ils font 2eme de Liga portugaise, c'est ça ?

❗️It sure never gets boring for 🇫🇷 Lyon fans. 🎢 What a roller coaster this season has been! 📈 After climbing from the abyss, 🇫🇷 Lyon are now 73% to finish Top 3 and qualify for 🔵 UCL directly (97% to finish Top 4)! But it's not over yet. 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for 60+ leagues available in our 🕹️ Simulator

@GIORGOSMOU85678 Braga has a higher coefficient than Olympiacos. But in any case, Olympiacos is not eligible for that ticket due to no leapfrogging rule.

@fmeetsdata I'm referring to this rebalancing Does it matter in which qualifying round that team is Because currently the highest coefficient team is olympiacos in uel qualifier if I'm not mistaken But still shakhtar need a miracle just to reach the final x.com/i/status/20472…

❓ How many more points do 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Nottingham Forest need to stay up? Remaining schedule: ✈️ Chelsea 🏠 Newcastle ✈️ Man Utd 🏠 Bournemouth The lowest point tally that gives them >90% chance of avoiding relegation is 41 pts, so that's 2 more pts. If they lose all 4 matches and stay at 39 pts, their relegation chances are 30%. This is mostly due to 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 West Ham's very tricky schedule and a significantly inferior goal difference. 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for 60+ leagues available in our 🕹️ Simulator

@OkapiLeeuw 27% if they win today.

@fmeetsdata Rangers 12% as far as if they win at Hearts today they are coming juste as 1 point from the leaders ? With 3 games to be played (and both top 3 still having to play each other)

@GIORGOSMOU85678 They get to choose UCL or UEL. They will choose UCL of course.

@fmeetsdata Won't a team get automatic qualification form uel qualifiers to uel league stage if that happens?

@GIORGOSMOU85678 Nothing, they will play in UCL.

@fmeetsdata What happens if shakhtar also comeback and win the conference league

🛑 The bar to avoid relegation in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL is set to be extremely high this season. All three teams fighting to avoid relegation are significantly above the "normal" tempo of winning points for an 18th-placed team. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 N. Forest (game in hand) = 39 pts 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Tottenham = 37 pts 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 West Ham = 36 pts Highest point tally for 18th-placed team (last 10 seasons) after 35 rounds = 30 pts Average pts for 18th-placed team (last 10 seasons) after 35 rounds = 29.6 pts Team with the most points to get relegated in last 10 seasons were Newcastle = 37 pts in 2015/16. This season we're looking at a team getting relegated with 39-40 pts. 🤯 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for 60+ leagues available in our 🕹️ Simulator

🟡⚫️ AEK are now at most 4 pts away from winning the league 🏆! ⚫️⚪️ PAOK jumped to 2nd place and secured a H2H advantage over 🔴⚪️ Olympiacos! 📈 If PAOK can avoid defeat next weekend at Olympiacos, they will be favorites to finish Top 2. 🏆 To win the league: 88% 🇬🇷 AEK (📈 +6%) 8% 🇬🇷 Olympiacos (📉 -8%) 4% 🇬🇷 PAOK (📈 +2%) 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for 60+ leagues available in our 🕹️ Simulator

🏆 Inter are crowned champions of 🇮🇹 Italy, 3 rounds before the end of season!