Football Meets Data

In our 🌎 World Cup Simulator you can: ✅ estimate probabilities for each position, projected points and goal difference for each of the 48 teams ✅ see the most likely KO opponent for every team in each possible scenario ✅ learn how many points and goal difference each team needs to qualify as a 3rd placed team ✅ see what are the most likely of the 495 possible knockout bracket combinations ✅ access model-based probabilities for Golden Boot and Most Assists races ✅ access pre-match predictions (score probabilities, xG, expected results, over/unders, clean sheet odds...) ✅ follow how all these probabilities shift LIVE, in real time, as the matches are played! ✅ enter your own scenarios and see how ALL these probabilities change depending on the result you entered ...and much more. 💥 PRE-WORLD CUP promo: 🔒⌛️ Lock-in your All-access for only €5.99/mo or €3.99/mo (billed annually) until 10 June, before the new pricing for new subscribers kicks in once the tournament starts! 🔗 football-md.com

🇫🇷 France v Argentina 🇦🇷 is currently the Final matchup that appears in the highest number of simulations. It would be a repeat of the 2022 World Cup final. 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios in our 🕹️ Simulator

Canada 🇨🇦 played their first ever WC knockout match and won it! They will face either 🇳🇱 or 🇲🇦 for a place in the Quarterfinals. Without knowing who it is, their chances are currently at 28%.

📈 R16 matchups with highest likelihood of happening (as of 28 June): Germany 🇩🇪 v 🇫🇷 France Mexico 🇲🇽 v 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England Argentina 🇦🇷 v 🇪🇬 Egypt Portugal 🇵🇹 v 🇪🇸 Spain Switzerland 🇨🇭 v 🇨🇴 Colombia Brazil 🇧🇷 v 🇳🇴 Norway USA 🇺🇸 v 🇧🇪 Belgium ... 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios in our 🕹️ Simulator

Most unbalanced R32 matchups: 🇦🇷 Argentina v Cabo Verde 🇨🇻 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v Congo DR 🇨🇩 🇪🇸 Spain v Austria 🇦🇹 Most balanced R32 matchups: 🇪🇬 Egypt v Australia 🇦🇺 🇵🇹 Portugal v Croatia 🇭🇷 🇧🇪 Belgium v Senegal 🇸🇳 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios in our 🕹️ Simulator

🏆 To win the World Cup (as of 28 June, 16:30 CET): 17% 🇫🇷 France 16% 🇦🇷 Argentina 13% 🇪🇸 Spain 12% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 8% 🇧🇷 Brazil 6% 🇳🇱 Netherlands 4% 🇵🇹 Portugal 4% 🇩🇪 Germany 3% 🇨🇴 Colombia 2% 🇳🇴 Norway 2% 🇲🇦 Morocco ... 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios in our 🕹️ Simulator

@timtimdom Check our previous post for percentages for each confederation

@fmeetsdata This "data" is meaningless without the proportions.

❌ Teams eliminated in group stage by confederation: 7⃣ 🌏 AFC 🇰🇷🇶🇦🇮🇶🇯🇴🇮🇷🇺🇿🇸🇦 3⃣ 🌎 CONCACAF 🇭🇹🇨🇼🇵🇦 3⃣ 🌍 UEFA 🇨🇿🇹🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 1⃣ 🌏 OFC 🇳🇿 1⃣ 🌎 CONMEBOL 🇺🇾 1⃣ 🌍 CAF 🇹🇳 Almost half of all eliminated teams in group stage came from Asia. Only one came from Africa.

🇦🇷 Messi climbs to 6 goals, pulls 2 ahead of the closest competitors! Now at 55% to win the ⚽ Golden Boot, with 8% to get to double digits (10 or more)! 👉 Full analysis of expected goals and assists for all players available in our 🕹️ Simulator

@MassimoBenesse1 @elincomprendid That is the consequence of inflation in points.

@fmeetsdata @elincomprendid The fact that it creates inflation isn't a problem, given that it doesn't alter the relative ranking of the national teams. The problem is that it overestimates the Elo rating of the losing team.

💥 Live FIFA ranking (as of 28 June, 6:30 CET): *changes compared to pre-WC ranking 1️⃣ 🇦🇷 1907.40 2️⃣ 🇫🇷 1906.84 📈 3️⃣ 🇪🇸 1880 📉 4️⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1840 5️⃣ 🇧🇷 1785 📈 6️⃣ 🇲🇦 1776.40 📈 7️⃣ 🇳🇱 1775.50📈 8️⃣ 🇵🇹 1765 📉📉📉 9️⃣ 🇲🇽 1736 📈📈📈📈📈 1⃣0⃣ 🇧🇪 1735 📉 1⃣1⃣ 🇨🇴 1729 📈📈 1⃣2⃣ 🇩🇪 1726 📉📉 1⃣3⃣ 🇭🇷 1723 📉📉 1⃣4⃣ 🇮🇹 1705 📉📉 1⃣5⃣ 🇺🇸 1677 📈📈 1⃣6⃣ 🇨🇭 1676 📈📈📈 From KO stage, teams cannot lose points any more! They can only add them or stay at the same level.

@AIiBVB Iran were literally 99.9% in the KO stage less then a minute before the end of Algeria v Austria.

@fmeetsdata Sage es von Anfang an dass eure Berechnungen beim Iran kompletter Schwachsinn sind. Die waren teilweise bei 85% davor sogar.

✅ Congo DR 🇨🇩 qualifies for R32 and sets up a date with England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿! ❌ South Korea 🇰🇷 are now officially eliminated! Iran 🇮🇷 are now hoping that 🇩🇿 v 🇦🇹 won't end in a draw (which would send both teams through), otherwise they are out!

@ericklmay It went beyond imaginable this time.

@fmeetsdata Are we about to see Iran get eliminated in the most excruciating manner imaginable after losing the game yesterday in the most excruciating manner imaginable?

@elincomprendid Decision by FIFA. It's controversial because it creates inflation in points over time and is contrary to the nature of the Elo system which the FIFA ranking is supposed to follow.

@fmeetsdata Why can’t they lose?

@FutbolAzeri If Argentina was offered to pick any other position in the existing bracket, would they accept that offer?

@fmeetsdata Ignoring that Colombia made us sweat at last Copa América final is wild

We would imagine 🇦🇷 Argentina won't complain too much about their path to a WC Semifinal.

📊 KO stage participants by confederation (% of total teams): 1⃣3⃣ 🌍 UEFA (81%) 9⃣ 🌍 CAF (90%) 5⃣ 🌎 CONMEBOL (83%) 3⃣ 🌎 CONCACAF (50%) 2⃣ 🌏 AFC (22%) 0⃣ 🌏 OFC (0%)

✅ Your final bracket with all 32 positions confirmed: 🇿🇦 South Africa v Canada 🇨🇦 🇳🇱 Netherlands v Morocco 🇲🇦 🇩🇪 Germany v Paraguay 🇵🇾 🇫🇷 France v Sweden 🇸🇪 🇵🇹 Portugal v Croatia 🇭🇷 🇪🇸 Spain v Austria 🇦🇹 🇺🇸 USA v BiH 🇧🇦 🇧🇪 Belgium v Senegal 🇸🇳 🇧🇷 Brazil v Japan 🇯🇵 🇳🇴 Norway v Cote d'Ivoire 🇨🇮 🇲🇽 Mexico v Ecuador 🇪🇨 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v Congo DR 🇨🇩 🇦🇷 Argentina v Cabo Verde 🇨🇻 🇦🇺 Australia v Egypt 🇪🇬 🇨🇭 Switzerland v Algeria 🇩🇿 🇨🇴 Colombia v Ghana 🇬🇭

Absolutely insane end of the group stage... Feeling sorry for the faint-hearted people in 🇮🇷 Iran.