
A!3X ©
65.7K posts

A!3X ©
@fodido
Os produtos expostos são para consumo da casa. Toque pra fazer Shazam. Conta não higienizada.


JUST IN: Australia will provide up to A$1 billion in interest-free loans to critical businesses due to the energy shock.


Five countries including Germany, Italy and Spain call for a common solution to the energy crisis - a month ago they spoke of shock, now it’s crisis - starting with the introduction of an EU windfall tax on energy companies, citing market distortions and tight national fiscal space. In other words, new revenue is needed to finance relief measures. And a sign this is deeper than initially suggested.


Diesel in Europe is now US$205/bbl. Like jet, it needs to demand destruct, just less violently. Ceteris paribus, roughly 3–6% of EU27+UK consumption has to go into May or June. Exact timing depends on flows. The difference vs jet is buffers. Inventories, refinery flexibility, and SPRs may absorb part of the shock. That slows the adjustment, it does not remove it. Keep in mind, the EU27+UK import roughly 1mbpd of diesel out of 4.5mbpd consumption. Europe is structurally short diesel and long gasoline, a legacy of 25 years of dieselisation. Time will tell. If you need a new car this month, perhaps go for petrol, not diesel 😆





I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth. Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market. If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history. If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want. If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime." By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything. Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran? Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent. "Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to. Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico." It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made. I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation. And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms. And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months? Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!" Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire. Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :) #oott #iran

More manipulation!! 5 minutes before this announcement hit the tape: * $3.53 BILLION of notional volume was bought in the S&P 500 futures (ES) 3x more volume than any other time this morning. Suggesting: 1) Insiders had a heads-up on this news AGAIN. 2) The news was from US sources NOT Iranian ones. This is someone attempting to recover the market from Trump’s poor speech last night.









