Peter Forister 🍁🍂🍁

Autumn so far in Appalachia 🍂🍂 📍Shenandoah National Park and Catskill Mountain Park, October 2025

😭😭 cries in Virginia clouds 😭😭

@jamesbrierton :(

Guess I can go back to bed 😪

@AdamMooreWX Congrats Adam!

Announcement Time: I have been sitting on this for a few weeks now but I think it’s time to share... I’m excited to announce that I accepted a job as an SAU Analyst at the Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM). (1/2)

@tim_grooms 😁😁😁😁

@forecaster25 Yeah boy, you rocked it! 😁

Best storm of the day lol

Well, this has been one of the worst storm chasing experiences I’ve ever had in the Mid Atlantic. Good news for the region tho- very low impact storms.

@tim_grooms This is why NW flow is the goat here

@tim_grooms Of course not!

Warm sector is established over NC/VA. Southerly/southeasterly winds with dews in the mid 60s. Storm evolution is still low-confidence, but this environment will be very favorable for strong storms today. Even if cells fire early, expect scattered tornadoes and strong winds.

@Drewshearer444 Monitoring

A gradual weakening in the overnight QLCS (particularly with northward extent) has been noted over the last 1-2 hours. IR Satellite shows the weakening of cloud tops very well, but warm-sector convection has developed ahead of it. These trends are important ones to monitor.

@tim_grooms It’s a mid Atlantic moderate day, we knew that already 😉🥴

@forecaster25 It was never going to be easy 😵‍💫

Please stop forecasting using simulated reflectivity for severe weather events, as it's bad meteorology. Yes, uncertainty is always present when a previous day's QLCS moves into the region. The environment/synoptics is still supportive of severe, but failure modes always exist.

Time to lock in

@DoctorTyMD @TravisKoshko No pressure 🥴🥴

@TravisKoshko and somehow @forecaster25 always manages to be in the right spot at the right time

For those planning on storm chasing in the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow: it’s NOTHING like chasing on the Plains. Roads aren’t exactly a straight line, there are many tree-covered areas, & we have a thing called topography. Please be safe, responsible, & aware of your surroundings.

Lots of schools in central Virginia have shut their doors tomorrow and I think that’s an excellent decision. I expect more schools in Virginia to do that

@GumryWX @AliciaMBentley do you have any thoughts on this? Also cc @Drewshearer444

I would chock this up to largely the NAM cool and stable bias in the boundary layer. Definitionally, that would lead to a stronger inversion layer as well as more low level shear due to decoupling of the PBL. Additionally, the storm motion of 209º or lower suggests parallel motion to the front, quick upscale growth, and very little QLCS tor threat

A legit EML is showing up on the NAM now over a clean warm sector + a mesolow over Western VA. This is a higher-end scenario.

@gothdad123 Unsure. I’ve very rarely seen Virginia schools take action on severe weather forecasts

@forecaster25 Do you think there will be any precautions taken for schools tomorrow?

@quagmirewx Thermodynamic profile here is extremely poor. This would be a lower end scenario despite the shear

@forecaster25 18z HRRR for Metro RIC

@darin_deveauWX @brandonwxOK Shhhhh

@brandonwxOK Route 58. That’s the Strat.

Tomorrow is my first mid Atlantic chase ever, what should I know? Is it similar to chasing South Dakota in June? Do toll fees ever get sent to collections out here?