Francesco

A bit of a character change here, that COULD get us closer to a capitulation type move. Last few days, $QQQ is now selling a lot more aggressively vs chopping up and down. Trend accelerating. Maybe this leads to heavy vol selling, some real panic, and a possible capitulation move?

$QQQ last year. I use this as a reminder to always move INCREMENTALLY. Twice in March/April we got nice snapback moves before we went lower. Just be patient, lean on progressive exposure and take it as it comes.

$SMH - Huge spot.

$SPY Weekly Unfortunately I cannot seem to find anything too bullish here aside from hoping that 40-week holds. THE spot we must bounce at.

Should have stayed in Hawaii another week looking at this market action!! 🙃 Covering 20% of my $SPY puts into today's weakness to pay for some risk with constant TACO risk to the short side knowing its a mid term election year. Tough to be short relatively big size in this market with trump watching every tick. We may start see the selling pickup next week as I had anticipated in the referenced post. My philosophy in these type of markets -- try to make a little bit, don't lose a lot, and above all else keep your mental strong so you're ready for the turn whenever that may be. I'm not levering up with super short term put expirations because as we've seen in this chop, those positions become 100% losers quickly if market doesn't immediately flush. If you are trading for a living, i.e. for income, you understand there are markets to thrive and markets to survive. '23, '24 and much of '25 were markets to thrive with a constant trend to comfortably hold names for months when you had some distance from cost basis. In these markets I want max risk, the tightest of stops and to be in as many names as possible within my risk parameters. I am focused on aggressively moving my equity curve higher in these environments because frankly we don't know how long it will last. When we shift to these survival markets I completely transform my thought process. I have seen hundreds of traders blow up with this sort of backdrop so it's all about making a little, not losing a lot, and primarily keeping the mental strong so you're ready when it's time to push risk. It's easy to get overly pessimistic like the market will never trend or give us 'easy' environments again when we go through prolonged periods of market digestion. The reality of our situation is that we will likely be in chop or a bear type market for next 2 months at least. We have been spoiled with direction the past 5 years. Things can always change on a dime with this administration. I like to equate the importance of doing the 'boring things' to keeping your tools sharp in whatever sport. You have to keep up with charts akin to how you have to take jumpshots everyday in the offseason. $NVDA began its 1000%+ run at the end of '22 when the $SPY needed 3 more months to make an official bottom. If you get disinterested in a bear market, you don't understand the type of relative strength that is brewing and focus on names just beginning to rise with the market. The greatest long term opportunities are always born out of bear markets. Keep the faith and the mental in tact right now and understand there are times to thrive and times to survive. 🫡