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@frentism

Mapping the AI ripple effect across public equities. Deep-dives & Macro Trends. NFA

Katılım Temmuz 2025
349 Takip Edilen49 Takipçiler
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AD@frentism·
@aleabitoreddit Would love to see an update on your thoughts on $TSSI
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
To be fair Trump did tell everyone to buy $DELL, multiple times this year. He did go out and buy $1-$5M worth of Dell stock himself after all… But should have seen this coming with Dell blowout earnings. After what happened with $INTC. If you feel like you’re late, there’s a lot of implications to Dell’s upstream suppliers that markets might not have priced in yet.
Serenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet media
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AD@frentism·
@ThematicTrader They service and integrate dells racks and liquid cooling system. 300m mcap
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
When I see $DELL do what it did. When I see $SNOW do what it did. I can’t help but FOMO hard af. Someone slap me back into reality.
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AD@frentism·
Great day for $TSSI. Up almost 8% on the day and over 11% in AHs.
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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krasko@krasko1199362

@aleabitoreddit Notice there's no dollar amount attributed

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ByungJun Ahn
ByungJun Ahn@dubidubabap·
이번에는 기존에 내가 보던 종목들을 전부 제외하고, 완전히 clean sheet 관점에서 멀티배거 후보를 다시 서치해봤다. 아직 각 기업을 깊게 판 것은 아니다. 제품 경쟁력, 고객사, 계약 구조, 10-K, 희석 리스크, 현금흐름까지 전부 검증한 단계는 아니고, 현재는 1차 서치 / watchlist 구축 단계다. 내가 본 기준은 단순하다. 작은 시총 아직 과열되지 않은 가격 수익성 개선의 단서 EBITDA / FCF 개선 가능성 고품질 재투자 희석 리스크 통제 그리고 실제 수급 반응 성장 산업에 있다고 다 멀티배거가 되는 것은 아니다. AI, 반도체, 데이터센터, 헬스케어, 인프라 같은 단어가 붙어도, 그 투자가 실제 매출, EBITDA, FCF로 이어지지 않으면 결국 자본 소모형 기업일 수 있다. 그래서 이번에는 스토리보다 숫자를 먼저 봤다. 1차 clean-sheet 결과는 이렇게 나왔다. 1. $GCT 이번 서치에서 숫자만 보면 가장 먼저 걸린 후보. 시총은 작고, 밸류에이션은 낮고, 매출과 순이익이 같이 증가하고 있다. AI/반도체처럼 화려한 테마는 아니지만, B2B 대형 화물·물류·마켓플레이스 구조에서 매출 성장과 이익 성장이 동시에 나오고 있다. 좋게 보면 “싸고 성장하는 플랫폼”. 나쁘게 보면 관세, 물류비, 경기 민감도, 거버넌스 리스크가 있는 종목. 화려하진 않지만 멀티배거 필터에는 꽤 잘 맞는다. 2. $TSSI 가장 원석형에 가까운 후보. AI 데이터센터 rack integration에 직접 걸려 있다. GPU가 늘어나면 칩만 필요한 게 아니다. 랙 조립, 테스트, 통합, 전력, 냉각, 배치까지 필요하다. 여기서 병목이 생기면 TSSI 같은 회사가 수혜를 받을 수 있다. 다만 리스크도 크다. 고객 집중도, 전력·냉각 capacity, 분기 변동성, 소형주 유동성은 반드시 봐야 한다. 성공하면 크지만, 아직은 고위험 원석이다. 3. $GENI 의외로 강하게 걸린 후보. 스포츠 데이터, 미디어, 베팅 기술 인프라 쪽 회사다. 매출 성장과 adjusted EBITDA 성장률이 좋고, 인수 이후 가이던스 기준으로 보면 시총 대비 EBITDA가 꽤 커 보인다. 하지만 이 종목은 조심해야 한다. Legend 인수 이후 레버리지, 통합 리스크, GAAP 손실, 규제 리스크가 있다. 숫자만 보면 매우 흥미롭지만, 잘못 보면 “싼 주식”이 아니라 “레버리지 트랩”일 수도 있다. 4. $WLDN 에너지 효율화, 전력 수요 관리, 인프라 서비스 후보. AI 직접 수혜주는 아니지만, 데이터센터와 전력 부족 문제가 커질수록 전력 효율화와 수요 관리도 중요해진다. 좋게 보는 이유는 매출 성장보다 EBITDA 개선이 더 명확하게 보인다는 점이다. 화려한 종목은 아니지만, 고품질 재투자 기업이라는 관점에서는 꽤 괜찮다. 10배 원석보다는 장기 compounder 쪽에 가깝다. 5. $OPRA 생각보다 숫자가 좋은 소프트웨어/브라우저 후보. 매출 성장, adjusted EBITDA 성장, 현금흐름, 자사주 매입이 같이 있다. AI browser / AI agent narrative도 붙을 수 있다. 중요한 건 이 회사가 단순 적자 AI 스토리주가 아니라, 이미 돈을 벌고 현금흐름을 내는 회사라는 점이다. 다만 시총이 이미 어느 정도 커서 초소형 멀티배거라기보다는, 좋은 가격에서 사야 하는 품질 성장주에 가깝다. 6. $ETON 소형 제약 성장 후보. 매출 성장률이 높고 adjusted EBITDA도 플러스다. 멀티배거 후보를 볼 때 중요한 건 “성장하면 적자가 커지는 회사”가 아니라, “성장하면서 이익 체력이 같이 좋아지는 회사”다. ETON은 이 조건에 일부 맞는다. 다만 제약주는 제품 집중도, 보험, FDA, 인수 제품 성과, 희석 리스크를 반드시 봐야 한다. 7. $BLLN 분자진단 쪽 고성장 후보. 매출 성장률이 매우 높고, gross margin도 높고, 영업이익도 플러스로 전환됐다. 질적으로는 꽤 강한 회사처럼 보인다. 다만 최근 IPO 종목이고, 이미 시총이 꽤 커졌다. 좋은 회사일 가능성은 있지만, 멀티배거 관점에서는 좋은 가격이 훨씬 중요하다. 8. $COHU 반도체 테스트 장비 후보. AI compute, HPC, advanced packaging이 커지면 테스트 수요도 같이 커질 수밖에 없다. COHU가 흥미로운 이유는 recurring revenue 성격이 있다는 점이다. 다만 아직 GAAP 기준으로는 완전히 깨끗한 흑자 회사가 아니다. 그래서 앞으로 봐야 할 것은 단순 매출이 아니라, 마진, 테스트 utilization, recurring revenue, 현금흐름이다. 9. $BWMN 작은 인프라 엔지니어링 서비스 후보. 시총이 작고, 매출 성장률은 높다. AI 테마는 아니지만 멀티배거는 꼭 AI에서만 나오는 것이 아니다. 작은 회사가 인프라 수요와 함께 성장하고, 인수와 운영 레버리지를 잘 쓰면 충분히 커질 수 있다. 다만 roll-up 리스크, GAAP 이익, 부채, working capital을 봐야 한다. 10. $ICHR 반도체 장비 공급망 후보. HBM, advanced logic, advanced packaging, capex 회복에 걸려 있다. 수급은 강하고, 시장이 다시 관심을 주는 쪽이다. 하지만 Q1 기준으로는 영업현금흐름, 재고, 매출채권 증가를 봐야 한다. 좋은 후보일 수 있지만, 단순히 “반도체 사이클이 온다”만으로는 부족하다. 결국 EBITDA와 FCF가 따라와야 한다. 이번 clean-sheet 1차 순위는 이렇게 본다. $GCT > $TSSI > $GENI > $WLDN > $OPRA > $ETON > $BLLN > $COHU > $BWMN > $ICHR 이 순위는 매수 순위가 아니다. 아직 깊게 연구한 단계도 아니다. 지금은 “어디를 더 파볼 것인가”를 정하는 1차 watchlist에 가깝다. 내가 앞으로 더 확인할 것은 이거다. 1. 매출 성장이 EBITDA로 연결되는가 2. EBITDA가 FCF로 이어지는가 3. 자산 증가율보다 이익 증가율이 더 강한가 4. CAPEX와 R&D가 자본 소모가 아니라 재투자인가 5. 기존 주주를 희석시키지 않고 성장할 수 있는가 6. 수급이 단순 급등이 아니라 실적 리레이팅으로 이어지는가 결국 멀티배거는 꿈을 사는 게임이 아니다. 작은 회사가, 좋은 시장에서, 자본을 효율적으로 쓰고, 그 결과가 숫자로 확인되며, 시장이 뒤늦게 재평가할 때 나온다. 이번 clean-sheet 결과에서는 숫자형은 $GCT, 원석형은 $TSSI, 레버리지 논쟁형은 $GENI, 품질 인프라형은 $WLDN, 현금흐름 성장형은 $OPRA, 소형 제약 성장형은 $ETON으로 보고 있다. NFA.
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bubble boi
bubble boi@bubbleboi·
People underestimate xAI at their own peril. They’re the real wild card in the AI race, and the bigger picture reveals an actual strategy to not just leapfrog the competition but to become the only winner in AI. It’s eerily similar to the playbook John D. Rockefeller ran with Standard Oil. If you look at the funding picture today OpenAI just raised $122B (that they’re lighting on fire) and Anthropic has raised ~$72B in its entire lifetime. xAI in comparison has raised meaningfully less than either. But xAI somehow already has the most compute online right now, and the capital structure is about to flip that’s going to turn them into one of the largest free cash flow machines in history. SpaceX filed its S-1 last week targeting a ~$75B raise at a 1.72 trillion valuation and although most of that is going to go to Starlink and Starship, the detail many are missing is that xAI now sits inside a public-company balance sheet with access to huge institutional debt markets that pure AI labs don’t have. OpenAI and Anthropic have to keep selling equity to fund compute while xAI can issue investment-grade paper against Starlink’s $4.4B in operating income, giving it a dramatically lower effective cost of capital which is critical in this gold rush to expand compute infrastructure and capture market share. If you then look closer at the Colossus deal with Anthropic xAI gets ~$40B to rent out their old infrastructure which allows them to monetize a depreciating asset at a higher rate than they were getting from internal use, as well as control a competitor’s inference economics, and recycles the cash into Colossus 2. This is a Rockefeller move no doubt. What many don’t understand is that Standard Oil didn’t just refine oil. It owned the rail rebates which in turn made their competitors pay them every time they shipped a barrel. Rockefeller’s rivals literally funded the monopoly’s expansion and similar to today with a severely supply constrained compute market anyone with cheap power right now can pull such a move (Colossus taping into the Natural Gas pipeline was another genius move for many other reasons). This matters a lot more than people think right now because we are still in the blitzkrieg part of the AI build out but as we shift from training to inference, compute capacity will directly equal revenue capacity. The pre-training benchmark game the AI labs are playing right now is hitting marginal returns. The customer-serving game is just starting, and whoever has the most power online and the best economics wins it. When you factor in the SpaceX IPO, public debt access, $40B of incoming Anthropic revenue (and many more deals to be announced soon I believe) as well as the first operational gigawatt cluster with Colossus 2 we are going to see a sea change in the industry. Power, uptime, and compute access will be all that matters. If I am right I expect consolidation with the big AI labs and AI services. The recent mergers & buyouts with SpaceX are just the start.
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asparagoid
asparagoid@asparagoid·
He didn't die young. Just like Rich Piana didn't die young. Just like Zyzz didn't die young When a man constructs his identity around a specific image of himself, God starts a countdown timer And time is up exactly when he achieves it If you see yourself as a physical form, that's exactly how reality will treat you If you see the highest objective of your life as actualizing that physical form, reality will give you all the time you need, yet simultaneously not a second more Reality can be conceptualized as a learning machine where all wishes are granted You wish to take form for a specific reason, so you incarnate with a subjective sense of "I". This "I" is interwoven with a core intention. And for human birth to happen, the intention must be so strong it compells physical incarnation so it can be experienced Every moment of the life, regardless of whether it is clear to the human or not, is then devoted to manifesting this intention This may look paradoxical on the surface. For instance, if someone intends to experience freedom, it may initially look like the pain of experiencing every illusory limitation so they can be seen and disregarded Look at an individual moment of suffering and you are likely to miss what's happening and how everything serves you Just as believing these bodybuilders lives were "cut short" demonstrates you still believe there are mistakes There aren't any mistakes. It doesn't work like that. Every single moment of anguish and bliss is exactly what you signed up with the original intention that prompted your incarnation Individual life streams end exactly when the original intention is made manifest, no exceptions If a bodybuilder came to experience what it is to be physically beautiful, or to have tremendous muscle mass, or to be physically envied by other men (perhaps seeded by having been ugly, scrawny or rejected in a prior life), and everything in him drives towards it. Then that's exactly when the story of his life ends There are even cases where a bodybuilder reaches beyond form and seeks to have his legacy inspire others. In this case, the perfect legacy is often not a long life. It's dying young, at the precise peak and letting the brief intensity of the fire be a stronger message than any slow decline into old age could ever be. Zyzz falls into this category Reality always manifests your deepest intention. It's always listening, always saying yes to your heart, always granting your deepest wish, even if you temporarily forgot what that might be. And long periods of forgetting and pain might have been exactly what was necessary to fulfil the wish You might start thinking of elderly bodybuilders. But in every single example, if you look deeply enough, you will find a different wish driving them Take Arnold. He grew up with an abusive father. His deepest wish was to become untouchable. To erase every ounce of feeling small or powerless or unwanted. He conquered bodybuilding, but it was about the would, never about bodybuilding. And when he did, he found that same bottomless void of trauma waiting, so he moved to the next thing, then the next, and the next He is still not done with this story, which is why his life continues. Even now, he continues grinding and seeking a form of ultimate power or legacy that cannot be taken away. That's the surface level wish. But the evidence of his life shows his deepest wish might be to see through the illusion of power by first experiencing every form of it Lives last the precise amount of time they need to in order to fulfill the deepest intention So when you see a bodybuilder die young, know that it has absolutely nothing to do with steroids. It's exactly what they signed up for. Exactly what they wanted. Their divine intention made manifest perfectly in the world of form
internet hall of fame@InternetH0F

Brazilian bodybuilder Gabriel Ganley has passed away at the age of 22

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Ælþemplær
Ælþemplær@Aelthemplaer·
The crazy thing about viruses isn't that they are basically naturally occurring nanite tech, but that they are possibly older than life in some theories. That means it is easier for the universe to spontaneously spawn nanite technology than living things. This has significant consequences in the search for life out there. There could be entire planets out there with zero living things but the planet might be full of viruses that reproduce using primitive biochemical bubbles in the sea that never quite reached life. Life might just plain loose most virus-cell arms races and we're just lucky.
めよんて@勉強垢@meyonte3

未だにこいつありえないと思ってる

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Anish
Anish@anishthite·
I used claude to make my handwriting into a font and then used that to make a mother's day card
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Jesse Rogers
Jesse Rogers@JesseRogersESPN·
The Cubs may have hit rock bottom, losing their 7th straight game, 3-0 to Houston. They managed 3 hits to the team with the highest ERA in MLB. It’s their longest losing skid since 2022.
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AD@frentism·
A question i am struggling with: Why spend months breaking your brain to learn a skill when a prompt can spit out the result in three seconds? I know i need to learn these skills to get the jobs i desire for the interviews, but it is just a huge weight on my shoulders atm.
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AD@frentism·
@coiningmaxi @FundProphet its something ill be paying great attention to in the future, and is the primary risk in to my thesis.
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AD@frentism·
@coiningmaxi @FundProphet Its a valid concern for sure. however, it would go against their fiduciary duty to purposefully not pursue/sabotage new client deals. it also would look bad for them personally to not expand the business beyond dell.
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Fund Prophet
Fund Prophet@FundProphet·
Can someone tell me if i'm missing something $TSSI revenues are tied directly to $DELL AI server buildout. Recent transfer of dell CTO is a signal the relationship is still strong. Won't that translate into much higher revenue in the next earnings.
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