Freya Beamish

great chat with @Louis_Ashworth @FTAlphaville what are the big trends and how do we do things differently? ft.com/content/36669e…

@darioperkins @jasongrig @TS_Lombard Nah man. Don’t come for me.

@freyabeamish @jasongrig @TS_Lombard TOO LATE. Freya diss track coming your way

The Fed's rate messaging. Cock up or conspiracy? Usually its a cock up. BUT THIS TIME......

@darioperkins @jasongrig @TS_Lombard Sorry. It’s been a long week. I retract my statement.

@freyabeamish @jasongrig @TS_Lombard OMG

@darioperkins @jasongrig @TS_Lombard That’s rich coming from the foreHead of Macro

@jasongrig @TS_Lombard yeah but @freyabeamish is too scary for Youtube 🤣

@TS_Lombard lots of talk about sofr-iorb spreads right now, and with good reason. this is a classic funding issue. but ultimately the fed knows what to do. if it kicks off, that just provides a better entry point to short the dollar. works in risk-on global demand recovery for next year too

2026: SHORT THE $. @freyabeamish In a risk-off environment shocks now propagate through hedging behaviour rather than funding scarcity. Long-only holders of US assets—insurers, pensions, sovereign funds—raise their FX hedge ratios when volatility rises. Dealers take the other

🇺🇸 Fed QT: the proof is in the pudding. Bank reserves just fell below $3tn (10% of GDP, the original Fed target). Waller argued that the "shortage threshold" is likely lower, around 9% of GDP ($2.7-2.8 tn). Or maybe it's higher, when measured as a share of total bank assets.

This is so depressing. Sorry but the way to solve UK fiscal problems is not to raise taxes. What Reeves doesn't realize is that when she talks to the bond market, the rest of us can hear - self-defeating. ft.com/content/82a95e… via @ft

@TS_Lombard @darioperkins I thought you were being serious and then I noticed you calling @darioperkins humble. Hey! Does that mean you don’t think I’m succinct? And how dare you insinuate that I might be humble.

PODCAST: THE AI BUBBLE TIMELINE. When it Bursts, will it Crash the Economy? As always with the humble @darioperkins and succinct @freyabeamish Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/3CHcFB…

Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped, on which ⁦@KathyJones⁩ and I riff on this week’s FOMC meeting, and I sit down with the always-brilliant ⁦@freyabeamish⁩, Chief Economist at ⁦@TS_Lombard⁩ schwab.com/learn/story/we…

On this week's #OnInvesting podcast we discuss and analyze market reaction to the Fed rate cut. Then @LizAnnSonders talks with @freyabeamish, chief economist for TS Lombard, about evolving labor market dynamics. schwab.com/learn/story/we…

@beardedmiguel Ugh. Thanks. Will check it out

@freyabeamish Just FYI this happened in the PDF version throughout your latest piece.

Is a "negative supply shock" poised to push inflation higher? How individual bank accounts compare with GDP is a key cyclical indicator to watch. #economics #economics

Consumers aren't "winning" with rebates. It just makes it more possible for them to absorb the tariff tax, leading to less profit squeeze and more inflation overall. Seen this coming? #Inflation #Economics

@EdinburghFA Yeah the 2% target seems like an accident

@freyabeamish By papering over the cracks every time there's a mini crisis they are sowing the seeds of their own destruction by increasing inequality - partly because of their fascination with a flawed 2% target. linkedin.com/posts/david-ju…

Are central banks politically neutral, or do they inherently favor capital over labor? The debate over monetary policy's impact on inclusivity continues. #CentralBanks #Economics

Are tariffs really paid by other countries? The idea of hiking prices globally to offset tariffs is "fanciful" given the negative demand shock. #Economics #Economics #Tariffs

Tariffs: who really pays? It's not foreign countries. "Donald Trump isn't reaping anything," tariffs are paid by U.S. citizens, impacting prices and economies. Seen this? #Tariffs #Economics

When tariffs climb past 10-20%, it could trigger a "rising volatile inflation regime." Are we nearing the danger zone? It’s "getting a little bit close for comfort." #inflation #Tariffs

Tariffs? It's a tax, plain and simple. "There's no evidence that the rest of the world is paying this." The real cost? Uncertainty, weaker spending, and investment. #Economics #Economics #Trade

@jackmon23472449 @darioperkins It’s closer into line with the other economic data now. Businesses on hold. They don’t want to fire in this environment. ADP suggest a bit better in July and that’s been the better gauge recently. (BLS is not doctored though!)

@freyabeamish @darioperkins How to think about BLS data with massive revisions. Inputs have been degrading for sometime but degradation is accelerating

@EconomistMarkus The best will be the rebates. *sarcasm* take in money from tariffs and give it out elsewhere = price level shift

@freyabeamish It's creative accounting. Tariff revenue bolsters the income side and what it takes away in terms of other revenue, someone has to first figure out with an elaborate econometric model that nobody will bother with. If the economy craters, there wil be no shortage of scapegoats.

Latest podcast just landed. Is Trump winning? Honestly i just struggle to see how this is a win for anyone. big fiscal drag for the US and maybe some rebates to offset that but that's just inflationary. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-…