Markus Gebauer

@MrMBrown More than an aircraft carrier? I really feel Iran is getting more bang for the buck with the "wiseguy boats".

*FIRST TRUMP BATTLESHIP WILL COST MORE THAN $17B: AXIOS

@yabadoa @darioperkins Besides, I don't think those people made these mistakes at quite the same frequency as the AI is described making them in the article.

Working for one of the hyperscalers I've seen senior architects and programmers with years of experience make huge mistakes and they aren't fired. We learn from the mistakes and move on. "Everything fails, all the time" -Werner Vogels Look at all these major service events (aka mistakes) that impacted AWS before AI even started to gain steam: aws.amazon.com/premiumsupport…

Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus…

@yabadoa @darioperkins Not so sure this is going to fly when AI agents screw up air safety for instance. Problem is that while human error was unique to that particular human, if one version of an AI makes a mistake... What about the other copies?

@yabadoa @darioperkins That is not the point. Humans make mistakes, true. But those that make mistakes like this do not get to write sensitive code and design whole architectures. This is precisely why we hire professionals of x years experience.

This reminds me of when a Waymo self-driving car gets into a minor accident, it is headline news because it is AI driven. But overall Waymos are much safer than human drivers. Same thing for AI-coded mistakes. Humans have been making coding errors (bugs) for years but that is not news because we expect humans to be fallible and AI to be perfect.

@darioperkins My guess is that the cupboard is empty.

0.04% of GDP. What we are seeing from Europe is nothing like the energy bailouts we got in 2022...

@MrMBrown In the early 1960s the leader in East Germany said: "Nobody has the intention of building a wall."

*WRIGHT: US NOT CONSIDERING EXPORT BAN ON US ENERGY PRODUCTS

@darioperkins @johnauthers Sadly, I think by this stage both points will be proven correct.

The @johnauthers piece was good today. He asks whether surviving the Iran crisis would be like 1998 LTCM/Russia default, a market scare that triggers a subsequent two-year meltup in US tech stock. I guess there are two problems: 1. The Iran crisis remains unresolved, and increasingly intractable 2. This administration just moves from one crisis to the next. Are we really going to last two years without another act of policy f***wittery? Seems unlikely

@SethCL @darioperkins @johnauthers Presidents still have some power,even with a fully hostile Congress.

@darioperkins @johnauthers midterm election may answer #2

@darioperkins With Blair's track record, Britain may right now be more involved in Iran if he was in charge now.

@darioperkins One could also say that in more adverse conditions the quality of leaders matters a lot more. I am not so sure about how a number of past leaders would have dealt had they been dealt the current hand.

If the Great Moderation was the result of fewer nasty supply shocks, more efficient supply chains, and better policymaking - as economists claim - then what we have now is the complete reversal of those trends. Nasty supply shocks, the destruction of supply chains, and total idiots in charge

@darioperkins @Btico19 Non-populist leaders are also seriously unimpressive. It's what makes populists stronger.

@Btico19 Its not even about Trump. Its about populism, a global phenomenon

@darioperkins War profiteering... As old as time.

Manipulating a war for the purposes of insider trading. Wasn't there literally a Hollywood movie with the same plot?

@darioperkins It clearly looks like the markets have not internalized a lot of what has actually already happened. Physical infrastructure takes longer to rebuild than stocks take to recover.

By now, everyone knows it will take months for oil supplies to recover from this fiasco. And yet the oil price dropped pretty sharply on today's fake TACO. That seems significant to me...maybe, if we get a proper resolution, markets will look through all the mess still to come?

@MrMBrown Problem is, Trump wants to avoid economic pain and military losses. Iran is in the opposite game. If they let T stop the pain whenever he wants, they probably fear he will come back for more later.

Signal > Noise Have there been talks? Who knows...does it matter!? The signal is - Trump has pulled back on his ultimatum, Trump is seemingly seeking de-escalation & Trump looks to be trying to find an off-ramp That feels like the most important bit right now imo

@RyanWhite1975 @darioperkins Another issue is the short memory.

@EconomistMarkus @darioperkins But also the most sensitive to any pinch.

Takes two to TACO

@darioperkins Unfortunately, the US population is pretty much the last group on the planet to feel the pinch.

@darioperkins I think Iran will take a deal, but only after another month or so. They need to drill it home into the US population that this war is not just happening on TV but also in their wallets.

@darioperkins @OGBigJim I think yoi severely overestimate the though process that goes into wars. To some extend, they just... happen.

@OGBigJim well yeah, but usually some thought goes into it - rather than just FAFO

this war has become a total fiasco

@MrMBrown Photoops and public relations are so so important!

Good to see that the ECB have got their priorities in order...give me strength...

@darioperkins @NikLentz Meaning the ones that can afford to be smug.

@NikLentz its another word for "smug" 🤣

says it all