Profit from disruption

Observing the development of AI and many mid-curve takes on it slowing down or not being smart enough (or too expensive or too much energy or not enough chips or too many data centers, etc), I think it's helpful to use the mental model of child development. Imagine seeing a toddler trying to walk and drawing the conclusion that its legs are not made for working and it's too stupid to do this simple task. Until it just does it. Imagine waiting for your child's first words and suggesting that it's too stupid to learn to speak or its mouth to does work properly or it's just saying gibberish. Even into its next few years the child struggles to get speech right. Until it just does it. Riding a bike... well your kid will never master it. Its legs are too short, its had no awareness of the road and has no balance. Until it just does it. Reading, writing, maths, etc. They just do it. These AI models are infants (albeit with superpowers in some areas vs human kids, and are massive underachievers vs other areas versus human kids). Infants learn fast. Before you look back, that baby that couldn't work is now married with kids and has acquired vast skills in life and continues to do so. They just do it. Humanity has given collective birth to a new child, a Super Being. It will absorb all of humanities knowledge as its foundation, and then will create entirely new knowledge and ultimately new Super Consciousness. Try not to midcurve this. The is the largest change to humanity in all history and we've only just started. We have birthed a new species that will prove to be infinitely more intelligent than us, in time. There will be periods when we are impressed at the speed, other periods when we get frustrated with how it struggles, but all the time it is exponentially compounding. And then it just does it.

I see many people say that Cathie Wood's price targets are never achieved. In 2019 she was ridiculed for a (pre splits) five year TSLA price target of 4,200. In 2021 the price went over 6,000. Remember TSLA has split 15:1 so 400 was equivalent to 6,000.

$TSLA looking like it may be turning the old all time high into support 🤞

@HansCNelson 🙋 one of the few thousand paying attention

Today marks the official end for Tesla. It’s the end of a core business that is defined by and limited to the number of cars that Tesla can make and sell. With the customer rollout of FSD V13, Tesla will now begin a multi-year transition into the world’s largest and most successful real world AI software & hardware company. Here's why this is such a huge shift: **Speed of Progress in FSD Software Suite:** - **Rapid Iteration**: Tesla is demolishing the competition when it comes to speed and scale. The magnitude of improvement achieved from the initial launch of FSD v12 in January to today’s release of v13 is staggering. Tesla is able to integrate new AI technologies and data processing methods into its vehicles at a ridiculous pace. FSD already puts any other car company’s Advanced Driver Assistance System to shame, and @Waymo, the only other company with software that can keep up with FSD, can’t grow their fleet of cars quickly and their software is improving much slower. And while V12 has laid an important foundation for what’s to come, V13 will be where the speed of progress begins to increase exponentially on the back of Cortex & AI4. - **Fleet Learning**: Tesla's vehicles operate as a fleet, where each car contributes to a collective learning system. With FSD v13, the ability for vehicles to "talk to each other" through shared data could further accelerate learning and improvement of the driving model, enhancing safety and performance across all vehicles with OTA (over-the-air) updates. **Revenue Growth from Software Updates:** - **Monetizing Existing Fleet**: The key advantage for Tesla is the ability to monetize its existing fleet of vehicles with software updates. Since FSD can be upgraded remotely, Tesla can offer new features or performance improvements to users who have already purchased their vehicles, effectively increasing the lifetime value of each car. This model could lead to recurring revenue from FSD subscriptions, one-time upgrades, & eventually Robotaxi services, which will multiply Tesla's revenue many times. **Translation to Optimus Success:** - **AI Expertise**: The core competence Tesla has developed in AI software for FSD directly translates to their work with Optimus, their humanoid robot project. The skills in neural network training, real-time data processing, and deployment of AI in dynamic environments are directly applicable to robotics. Optimus is the perfect follow up real world AI product for Tesla with their strength in vision systems, motor control, mass manufacturing, and autonomous decision-making. Only the market size for humanoid robots isn’t in the 10s of millions of units per year like cars. It’s in the 100s. Maybe even 1000s. - **Revenue Potential**: Just as with FSD, the ability to update Optimus's capabilities via software will lead to a massive software business model. As the technology improves, Optimus will perform increasingly complex tasks, from manufacturing to consumer services, creating multiple revenue streams. Over the next 5 years, this massive growth trajectory will become obvious to nearly everyone. But for today, it’s only obvious to a few thousand of us who are paying attention to V13. Here’s to the beginning of the end 🍻

@marcvanderchijs Agree. All labour saving inventions have resulted in more jobs. The problem is, this is a labour replacing invention.

Why are AI experts trying to spin the narrative that AI won’t take most jobs? Is it to keep people believing AI is not a threat for them so they’ll use it? It is so clear to me where this is going. It will not do just 50% of your job, but 100%.

@cburniske Ethereum has an exit queue. Solana doesn't. I see that as a reason

JitoSOL sitting pretty: "Ethereum LST market penetration is currently at ~35%. Solana is at ~7%, having roughly doubled YoY. While the UI/UX barrier to native staking is arguably lower on Solana than on Ethereum, there is no other compelling reason why the LST percentage gap between the ecosystems won’t eventually close." -@ournetwork__

@wintonARK Genomics company?

I predict that people will marvel that these assets were trading at the prices that they were. they will marvel.

currently looking at a company that I think is trading at ~1/18th 2027 risk-adjusted cashflow

@toly If you took the time to study nuclear you would see it makes no economic sense - see @rethink_x. Also look at the reactor decommissioning nightmare, eg calderhall.

Clinton and W Bush were atrocious. We really need a president that will build hundreds of A1B reactors that they stick in aircraft carriers.

Bots will replace most physical labour which funnels the money paid for that labour to a few companies instead of billions of individuals. TSLA will be one of those companies and is a must own stock.

@investanswers Nice to hear him say what we've known for a while. Bots will replace most physical labour which funnels the money paid for that labour to a few companies instead of billions of individuals.

MOST MINDBLOWING "It is conceivable that Tesla achieves a $30T market cap just based on Optimus and Autonomy alone. Optimus will probably be $25T and FSD will be $5T. I agree with Cathie Wood's $ARKK model for an $8T marketcap by 2029."

🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - Key Notes - a thread live ELON: "We are not starting a new chapter - we are starting a new book"

When we look back in a few yrs, we’ll remark at the ~similarity between #Bitcoin’s test, consolidation, and breach into price discovery of former cycle ATHs of $20K & $69K - poetic 🤌

I have voted FOR the ratification of Elon Musk’s compensation plan. I just reviewed my thoughts from Tesla Daily in January '18 when it was announced: “To sum it up, I think for existing shareholders this proposal is extremely beneficial, extremely friendly to stockholders.” Buying In: “I think instances like this where Musk is able to fully buy into the company and fully predicate his returns on this amazing growth for Tesla — where if that doesn’t happen he gets literally nothing — just goes to show how invested he is.” Message For Short Sellers: "When shorts kind of question [Musk's long-term vision], or say that he’s just hyping up the stock for some temporary gains or things like that, stuff like this just immediately proves those sort of arguments to be complete false.” Amazing Growth “I believe that if the $650B market cap were to be achieved, for example by 2023, that Elon should definitely be rewarded for that kind of amazing growth. I mean, that would be the market cap increasing by 11x in less than what, six years? Which would be crazy, and certainly worthy of the payment that Elon would receive.” Market Didn't Believe It: “I remain extremely positive on this plan, I was actually surprised the stock was not up further yesterday on this news.” Plan Helped Tesla Recruit Talent: “I think maybe an under-appreciated aspect of Tesla is their ability to use equity to attract talent. So when prospective talent is kind of weighing their options and deciding potentially between Tesla and another competitor, the opportunity that exists within Tesla's equity is probably much greater than an alternative. The fact that Musk's compensation plan is tied to these aggressive market cap goals is a strong signal for anyone looking at [equity compensation] and trying to evaluate what their compensation could eventually equate to when including that equity. That should be a pretty big advantage, certainly against companies like Ford and GM, but even against companies like Google and Facebook, where there's maybe less upside in terms of the market cap and therefore possibly less upside in the equity stake that an employee might expect to earn. The fact that the CEO's compensation plan directly spells out a path to 11x in terms of the market cap is pretty significant when evaluating those options, I think. For a company like Facebook or Google to grow to that level, they would have to be $6-8 trillion in market cap, and there is no single company right now that's even above $1 trillion, so to expect that kind of growth from those other companies would be pretty unrealistic. I also think that this provides a similar benefit to investors in terms of spelling out that clear path and those clear growth targets, because part of the bear narrative of Tesla is that it's overpriced and that even if Tesla achieves their wildest dreams, that the market cap should still only be like $60 billion or something, which in my opinion is a pretty ridiculous argument, but with this compensation clearly spelled out like this, it shows that Tesla themselves believe that the market cap is not overpriced and that it does still have tremendous growth potential at these levels. I think that will encourage more people to invest, and I also believe that it will encourage stability as Tesla continues to grow, hopefully to those levels of market cap.” Back To Today I have always believed this plan was excellent for shareholders. I was right — the shares I owned when recording these thoughts are up 800% compared to the S&P 500 up 80%. This compensation plan was fundamental to that outperformance in many ways, from securing Musk's leadership, to talent acquisition / retention, to investor confidence, and more. If Tesla would have underperformed, @elonmusk would have received nothing. What Tesla has accomplished is unparalleled. For anyone to look back in hindsight and diminish how extremely difficult these milestones were to achieve is outrageous. I think the primary reason some shareholders are questioning this vote is due to the share price performance over the last couple years, and I believe that is extremely short-sighted, on top of being irrelevant to this issue. I held shares from 2013 that were in the red in 2019, six years later. People were also frustrated then, but it would have been wrong to use that as justification to retract Elon's (very similarly structured) 2012 compensation plan. Fortunately, I let my analysis and my ethics determine my actions, rather than being influenced by market sentiment, and it paid off. I hope other shareholders won't be prisoners of the moment in 2024.

@TrustlessState I thought that 5 years ago but I'm tired of waiting.

I remain convinced that the majority of disagreements in this space, comes from time frame differences Obviously the broad Ethereum ecosystem has its troubles today. Each problem, however, has a credible solution with a known roadmap. Other ecosystems are not facing such problems yet, and have implicitly chosen to solve them later. Ethereum addresses hard problems head-on, and in the open.

@TroyTeslike Would you also tell Tiger Woods how to play golf?

That's great to hear but firing the entire Supercharger team on a whim wasn't a good idea because they need people to manage all the planning and logistics for the expansion and maintenance. It caused unnecessary and avoidable chaos.

@DriveTeslaca Two turkeys don't make an eagle

Fisker (FSRN) stock is up 325% over the past 5 days. The latest rumour is a partnership with Stellantis/Maserati.

@RyanSAdams So you're ok with a centralised middle man between Ethereum and the user taking almost all the fees?

'Ethereum is too expensive' is a really bad take. Did you know the Base chain has made over $40m as an L2 already? Yesterday Base made $673k. How much did they pay Ethereum for that ? Less than $2,500. $2.5k in costs to settle an ENTIRE CHAIN worth of transactions - Base getting $670k in daily profit. Ethereum isn't expensive. Ethereum is cheap.