Charles Augustine
113 posts
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@donaldgorbachev Who is the kitchen?
I don't quite understand
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The five-second epistemology of the empire’s two qualified successes are one qualified success and the other one is the F-35.
ArmchairWarlord just published the cleanest operational scorecard of the war. Four lines of effort. Twenty-something objectives. Failed, failed, failed, with two qualified successes in the entire ledger. The kitchen reads it as a peer document. The kitchen and ArmchairWarlord arrived at the same diagnosis through different methods. He used military-objective taxonomy. The kitchen used theology, vocabulary, and the dock price. Same answer.
The kitchen will tighten the ledger by one entry.
Qualified success number one. Prevent capture of Coalition aircrew. The kitchen calls this one. The 493rd Fighter Squadron F-35A from RAF Lakenheath went down in Kohgiluyeh on Day 35. The F135 turbine discs. The Martin-Baker US16E ejection seat. The RAM-coated composite honeycomb panels. The squadron crest. The Colonel rank designation. The captured pilot photograph. The kitchen called it before any major OSINT account. CENTCOM responded with Schrödinger’s F-15E Strike Eagle. The kitchen named the pilot Colonel Jake Barnes. The lack of a community note on any of the kitchen’s pieces is the kitchen’s receipt. The empire did not contest the call because the empire could not contest the call. Twenty-five days of silence is the answer the empire gave to the question whether one Coalition pilot was captured. The qualified success is one F-35 and one Colonel short.
ArmchairWarlord’s ledger should read failed on this objective too. The empire kept most aircrew alive by refusing to fly into Iranian airspace. The empire’s strategy of standoff is what saved the others. The exception is the one the empire still cannot say out loud. The kitchen says it. The kitchen has been saying it for twenty-five days.
Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW
Very little in the Six Week War - capped off by the Desert Two debacle in Isfahan - could be considered a "tactical success" at all. We got stiff-armed by a well-prepared regional power, ran out of ammo, and the Chinese are once again about to win by doing absolutely nothing.⬇️ Let's actually assess this in a rational manner, working my best guess as to what our objectives actually were during this operation - which is in and of itself a difficult thing to figure out given they seemed to change daily because nobody at the Pentagon was willing to impose any kind of strategic discipline on Trump. So, uh, let's break this down by lines of effort because there were several. Line of Effort 1: Strategic neutralization of Iran as a threat vector to Israel and other US interests and forces in the Middle East OBJ 1.1: Regime change - FAILED. Iranian government as currently constituted ("regime") consolidated power; "Khamenei replaced with Khamenei". No significant anti-regime protests recorded. OBJ 1.2: Secure US/Israeli air supremacy over central Iran - FAILED. Coalition remained dependent on standoff weapons for strikes outside border regions; only apparent attempt to fly massed air sorties into central Iran resulted in lost aircraft and near-disaster. Most Coalition air assets withdrawn to inconvenient bases far from Iran due to missile threat and reliant on extensive tanker support to operate at low sortie rates. OBJ 1.3: Coerce existing regime to align with US strategic interests - FAILED. Iranian hardliners empowered by perceived victory against the United States and Israel; more moderate factions have aligned with hardliners. OBJ 1.4: Isolate Iran from great power support (Russia/China) - FAILED. Russia and China continue to provide substantial economic and military support to Iran. Line of Effort 2: Destruction of the Iranian WMD program OBJ 2.1: Seize Iranian enriched uranium stockpile - FAILED. Attempted SOF raid ended in debacle. OBJ 2.2: Destroy Iranian uranium enrichment capability - FAILED. Iranian enrichment capability is in extremely hardened underground facilities which do not appear to have sustained significant damage from Coalition attacks. OBJ 2.3: Destroy Iranian industrial pipeline to manufacture nuclear warheads - UNKNOWN. Little data exists here outside of raw speculation. Line of Effort 3: Destruction of Iranian means of coercion against Israel and US interests in the Middle East OBJ 3.1: Destroy Iranian missile force - FAILED. Iranian ballistic, cruise, and drone capabilities very much intact. OBJ 3.2: Destroy Iranian aerial forces - FAILED. Iranian tactical aviation intact; transport and logistics aircraft destroyed on the ground by Coalition forces were of limited tactical utility. OBJ 3.3: Destroy Iranian naval forces - FAILED. IRGCN mosquito fleet currently the dominant naval power in the Persian Gulf; naval balance of power in the key Persian Gulf and Hormuz region has shifted AGAINST the United States and allies. OBJ 3.4: Destroy Iranian regional proxies - FAILED. Iranian regional proxies in Iraq and Lebanon showed resilience well beyond that expected by analysts. OBJ 3.5: Prevent capture of Coalition aircrew by Iran - QUALIFIED SUCCESS. Thanks to strategically ruinous expenditures of standoff weapons, exposure of Coalition aircraft to Iranian air defenses was minimized, preventing Iran from taking POWs. Line of Effort 4: Protect Israel, friendly Gulf Arab regimes, US military forces, and broader US interests from Iranian retaliation OBJ 4.1: Secure oil shipment through Strait of Hormuz - FAILED. Iran secured control of the Strait of Hormuz and continues to export oil despite attempted blockade. OBJ 4.2: Disrupt Iranian retaliatory strikes - FAILED. Coalition strikes did little to nothing to disrupt Iranian missile and drone launches. OBJ 4.3: Degrade Iranian retaliatory strikes on Coalition military assets in theater - FAILED. US forces withdrew to bases at operational standoff from Iran rather than contest positions inside SRBM range, ceding influence over the strategically critical Persian Gulf to Iran rather than risk friendly casualties. Iranian drones and MRBMs caused painful if not decisive losses to Coalition assets throughout the war. OBJ 4.4: Prevent Iranian counter-value coercion against friendly Gulf Arab regimes - FAILED. Iran struck countervalue targets in the Arab states at will and continues to hold them at great risk; Qatar (previously home to a massive US presence) appears to have given Iran a massive tributary payment rather than face further attacks. OBJ 4.5: Prevent Iranian strikes against Coalition proxies in theater. - FAILED. Iran effectively struck Iraqi Kurdish militias being positioned as a proxy force, leading to the Kurds concluding a separate peace with Iran and withdrawing from the conflict despite extensive claims in Iranian territory. OBJ 4.6: Prevent second-order economic effects of the war in the United States - QUALIFIED SUCCESS. Stock market apparently unable or unwilling to believe magnitude of ongoing energy supply disruptions; jawboning and frequent false reports by the Trump Administration of imminent peace and successful negotiations reduced market turmoil at the cost of the long-term credibility of the US government. In summary: Deep failures across all lines of effort and very few objectives accomplished.
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@Chetuyachinago We don't care if the Iranian regime "accepts" what the U.S. is doing. We just want it to collapse and be replaced by the kind of government that the Iranian people actually want.
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Clearly it appears that Washington has appointed itself as the judge, jury and executioner on the high seas.
Now you understand why Tehran has refused to come to the negotiation table in Islamabad.
No truly sovereign nation should ever accept this level of humiliation from any government, even if that government was approved in heaven by God himself.
Treasury Department@USTreasury
Today, as part of Economic Fury, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is sanctioning 14 targets for their involvement in helping the Iranian regime obtain weapons. As the regime attempts to reconstitute its production capacity, the United States will continue to deplete Iran’s ballistic missile inventories.
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@DavidHundeyin Israel knows a lot of youth in the US are not in support of them, and if that generation comes to power in coming years, they'd be a formidable Force against Israel as a country. So they'd rather degrade the power of the US now before that generation gets to power in coming year
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There is a conspiracy theory that states that Israel is masterminding the destruction of the US military and economy, so that the US empire can be replaced with a global 'Pax Judaica'.
Well, hearing that the US military is embarking on a suicidal ground invasion of Iran, and is purging all the senior officers who refuse to authorise it forces you to think 'maybe this isn't a conspiracy theory after all'.
Because why on earth would they voluntarily destroy their own army by attempting the one invasion that not even Bush, Clinton or Reagan were crazy enough to try? Honestly, what on earth is the reason? What is the upside here? What is there to gain?🤷🏿
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@Wyi_Gaius If this war was against Nigeria, many churches would have started a 40 days fasting and prayer for God to come and save us instead of mobilizing to defend the country
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Wreckage of the C-130 that was blown in Iran.
Anyway, if this had happened in Nigeria, there are people that would be there fighting to get the scraps...
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@RezaNasri1 at least it's clear from TRUMP's tweet that he knows his captured pilots are all safe in Iran 😍 ... otherwise he would have asked his fans to pray for them - before asking them to vote on wether his soldiers should be pirates
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If Americans want to understand what a genuine threat to their national security looks like, they need look no further than Donald Trump’s reckless posts.
How, exactly, are Iranians supposed to perceive your missing pilot if captured? As someone carrying out the commander-in-chief’s orders to commit war crimes? As someone sent to slaughter civilians and bomb pharmaceutical plants, bridges, universities, and schools? Or someone on a mission to take their oil?
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Iran has beaten the USA and Israel so much that they can not believe they are fighting with one person. 😂😂
They are now accusing Russia of assistance. But Russia says Iran has not asked for help yet, and when they do they will be 100% ready to help.
North Korea is begging Iran to ask for help.
China is still on the bench waiting for Iran to just ask.
They have the equipments and Iran has 1 million soldiers to use these tools.
This war will be long.
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Isreal become dust ke? lol.. Israel has seen many conflicts over thousands of years. Even as far back as in the Bible (the Hebrew Bible/Old Testament), there are accounts of wars involving ancient Israelites, so they have built all sorts of extensive protective systems to protect country/citizens.
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86 year old killed, 92 million Iranians still alive.
יואב גלנט - Yoav Gallant@yoavgallant
לפני שמונה חודשים כתבתי לח׳אמנאי באופן פומבי: ״נטוש את השאיפה להשמדת ישראל - בחר בחוכמה״. הוא לא עשה זאת.
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The US used one-way drones, overwhelming the Iranian air defences
Drones are now mainstream, a strategic force projection tool; you can't have an effective military without them
You can detect them, but can you stop a swarm of 1000 drones?
The attack happened in broad daylight, and decapitation was clearly the objective
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